Question for Don: Surrendering 7,7 vs 10 & A

[DSchles]

The computer work was done by Dave ("Gronbog") Brolley. We consulted a great deal on various close calls and general policy as to how the indices would, ultimately, be reported.

Don

[Cacarulo]

Yes, definitely. Did you calculate all these indices yourself? It seems like Calcarulo did some work here.

No, I haven't participated at all in the generation of indices. It's all Dave's work.

Sincerely,
Cac

[aceside]

Here is the thing. We are talking about this composition-dependent strategy decision, hit/surrender, on these four hands:
T,4 vs T;
9,5 vs T;
8,6 vs T;
7,7 vs T.

For an infinite deck game, they are exactly the same.
For 8 or 6-deck game, they are almost the same.
For a single deck game, they are slightly different because of EOR.

If you find a very different HiLo index for the pair 7,7 from other hard 14s, chances are it’s a numerical artifact.

[Gronbog]

If you find a very different HiLo index for the pair 7,7 from other hard 14s, chances are it’s a numerical artifact.

There is nothing more to say other than that you are wrong about this.

[DSchles]

I was obviously going to say the same thing but decided not to feed the troll.

Don

[aceside]

There is nothing more to say other than that you are wrong about this.

Trust me on this part, there is absolutely no need to single out the 7,7 pair from other hard 14s regarding the hit/surrender decision. As I said a couple years ago, HiLo true count indices are not accurate for single and double deck games, as far as I know. The remaining cards number is not enough to do averaging. I just haven’t learned how to handle this problem.

[DSchles]

GODDAMMIT, STOP WRITING!! You don't know what the f**k you're talking about. How can you write "Trust me," on the one hand, and then "I haven't learned how to handle this problem"? Just stop!! The indices are what we say they are. NO ONE cares about your uninformed opinion as to what they are.

Don

[G Man]

A simple solution: We should ignore him and ignore any post he is part of.
This is what I will do from now on.

[sondjata]

I thought about this again and found it interesting. We have experts here, especially on the KO system. The KO system counts the cards 7s as +1, but HiLo doesn’t count 7s at all, so I’m lost here. If you can, please say a little more about this.

As far as I can tell, counting the 7 as +1 makes up for or eliminates the need to convert to a true count. Trust me, if you try to use 7 as +1 in a Hi-Lo simulation you will find yourself with a negative EV situation.