This is my first post so take it easy on me. I've been a recreational counter for 3+ years and had been doing ok, a red and green chipper more for fun than anything and to learn how to do it and see if I could be successful at it. I was generally doing OK betting 1-6 bet spread using Hi-Lo count : TC <= 1 bet 1 unit, TC = 2 bet 2 units, TC=3 bet 4 units, TC >= 4 bet 6 units. Since it was just for recreation, I prefer the smaller bet spread and to not deal with backoffs (although I have been backed off a few times and flat betted a few times). The games I play are typically 6 or 8 decks, LS, NRA, S17, 1.0 to 1.75 deck penetration.

About 6 months ago using CVCX I calculated I could earn more dollars an hour by changing my betting to: TC<=0 bet 1 unit, TC=1 bet 2 units, TC=2 bet 4 units, TC>= 3 bet 6 units. Over the last 6 months I have lost, basically drained my 10K bankroll and am now switching back to my original betting approach to see if that changes anything. Did I calculate incorrectly or is it just 6 months (> 150 hours) of bad variance?