Been Losing for 6 Months

**StepUpToTheMike** · 12-19-2023, 09:18 PM

This is my first post so take it easy on me. I've been a recreational counter for 3+ years and had been doing ok, a red and green chipper more for fun than anything and to learn how to do it and see if I could be successful at it. I was generally doing OK betting 1-6 bet spread using Hi-Lo count : TC <= 1 bet 1 unit, TC = 2 bet 2 units, TC=3 bet 4 units, TC >= 4 bet 6 units. Since it was just for recreation, I prefer the smaller bet spread and to not deal with backoffs (although I have been backed off a few times and flat betted a few times). The games I play are typically 6 or 8 decks, LS, NRA, S17, 1.0 to 1.75 deck penetration.

About 6 months ago using CVCX I calculated I could earn more dollars an hour by changing my betting to: TC<=0 bet 1 unit, TC=1 bet 2 units, TC=2 bet 4 units, TC>= 3 bet 6 units. Over the last 6 months I have lost, basically drained my 10K bankroll and am now switching back to my original betting approach to see if that changes anything. Did I calculate incorrectly or is it just 6 months (> 150 hours) of bad variance?

**awesomeblue7** · 12-20-2023, 09:12 AM

Could possibly be bad variance. I started out making 4k in first 50 hours similar spread. There's been one occasion flat betting a 6D shoe to get a shuffle where I swung down nearly $800. I liked your first bet spread more than the the second for play all conditions. There's a lot of negatives that you're playing if you are betting 1 unit at all <1. I'm not sure how the second spread possibly make more, but I don't own nor ever used CVCX. Maybe just a higher variance in SD?

**moo321** · 12-20-2023, 09:34 AM

Assuming Hi Lo with full indexes and one deck cut off, the SCORE for that game is only $13. And the n0 is 76,000 hands. Meaning you would need to play over 700 hundred hours to have a decent chance of being ahead, and you could still be stuck even after like 2000 hours.

As the pen gets worse, those numbers get much worse. At 1.5 decks cut off, the SCORE is $5, and n0 is 175,000 hands. You could play full time for years and still be stuck. You need to spread more, leave negative counts, etc.

I understand some people play with goals other than just making money. But you have almost no advantage over the house in that game, so don't be surprised if you have huge losing streaks like this.

**Cacarulo** · 12-20-2023, 09:42 AM

Originally Posted by StepUpToTheMike

This is my first post so take it easy on me. I've been a recreational counter for 3+ years and had been doing ok, a red and green chipper more for fun than anything and to learn how to do it and see if I could be successful at it. I was generally doing OK betting 1-6 bet spread using Hi-Lo count : TC <= 1 bet 1 unit, TC = 2 bet 2 units, TC=3 bet 4 units, TC >= 4 bet 6 units. Since it was just for recreation, I prefer the smaller bet spread and to not deal with backoffs (although I have been backed off a few times and flat betted a few times). The games I play are typically 6 or 8 decks, LS, NRA, S17, 1.0 to 1.75 deck penetration.

About 6 months ago using CVCX I calculated I could earn more dollars an hour by changing my betting to: TC<=0 bet 1 unit, TC=1 bet 2 units, TC=2 bet 4 units, TC>= 3 bet 6 units. Over the last 6 months I have lost, basically drained my 10K bankroll and am now switching back to my original betting approach to see if that changes anything. Did I calculate incorrectly or is it just 6 months (> 150 hours) of bad variance?

The games you are playing with LS,S17 are ideal. The most accurate betting scheme is the one shown by CVCX.
Perhaps it would be interesting for you to try leaving the tables where the count goes negative. If it's not possible to leave the tables,
then another alternative would be to increase your spread.
On the other hand, choose shoes where the cut is as deep as possible. Even so, variance will always be present.

Hope this helps.

Sincerely,
Cac

**StepUpToTheMike** · 12-20-2023, 07:48 PM

Thanks for your replies, I really appreciate the feedback. All of you are spot on in that I usually play through negative counts. Many times the places I play are crowded and/or don't have a lot of open tables, so it's a little tough to just stop and go to another table. Sounds like I need to get comfortable with just leaving tables during negative counts instead of riding it out, and also just not playing in those places and times where tables are limited.

**SammyBoy** · 12-20-2023, 07:50 PM

Check out Collin's (Blackjack Apprenticeship) latest video on Youtube. Several years back I went through about 700 hours of break even play. I'm very selective about the games I play and have since gone on to set multiple all time highs for winnings. The point is, almost anything can happen with small sample sizes (in the grand scheme 700 hours is nothing). I know at least two other very good counters that had break even streaks of 800-900 hours.

**LicenseToTilt** · 12-20-2023, 07:58 PM

Your RoR with a 1-6 spread is higher than 1-10 spread. Losing for 6 months seems like a more likely outcome with the spread you are using.

**Gramazeka** · 12-21-2023, 04:06 AM

Originally Posted by StepUpToTheMike

I was generally doing OK betting 1-6 bet spread using Hi-Lo count : TC <= 1 bet 1 unit, TC = 2 bet 2 units, TC=3 bet 4 units, TC >= 4 bet 6 units.

This betting strategy is no good. You won't win money. A much more aggressive strategy is needed.

**Cacarulo** · 12-21-2023, 09:02 AM

Originally Posted by LicenseToTilt

Your RoR with a 1-6 spread is higher than 1-10 spread. Losing for 6 months seems like a more likely outcome with the spread you are using.

Well, not exactly. The RoR should remain the same regardless of the spread used. The secret lies in the betting scheme and the size of the unit.

Sincerely,
Cac

**sondjata** · 12-21-2023, 09:51 AM

Sorry to hear about your BR loss. I had a similar experience underbetting a 6D shoe before I wrangled with CVData and found out my errors: 1) 2 Huge play errors 2) Too small a spread.

**StepUpToTheMike** · 12-22-2023, 01:48 PM

Thanks all for the replies, good info.

**Lester** · 12-22-2023, 03:38 PM

6-month losing streak? Ouch. Wish you were part of a team. Are you confident that you are playing perfectly? Yeah, get the heck out of negative shoes, come back later when the tables aren't so crowded. I am so sorry to hear about your downturn.

**StepUpToTheMike** · 12-23-2023, 09:37 AM

Originally Posted by SammyBoy

Check out Collin's (Blackjack Apprenticeship) latest video on Youtube. Several years back I went through about 700 hours of break even play. I'm very selective about the games I play and have since gone on to set multiple all time highs for winnings. The point is, almost anything can happen with small sample sizes (in the grand scheme 700 hours is nothing). I know at least two other very good counters that had break even streaks of 800-900 hours.

Thanks for the reply. That video is pretty good, it touched on things I could change for the better. Not playing through negative counts as you guys have said, more rounds per hour, avoid bad penetration, tweak my betting, all of that. My play has mostly been for recreation/weekend player, so I haven't really been too concerned about it in the past, but I don't want to lose money either. Will look to add these to my game and see if that helps.