Should I continue playing as AP?

[rex1530]

I understand I may have started with a huge risk, but here's my story.

I started with a replenishable $1500 bankroll, where my max to keep replenishing it is $10,000. I use Casino Verte to practice for couple months and im getting 99% with play with Hi-Lo and sweet 16 indexes, and 97% on betting. My spread is 1-6 on a DDH17 DAS half deck penetration. can only double 9,10,11. It is a pitched face down game with $25 minimum. So right of the bat i was green chipping. I started really great and grew that $1500 to $3900 in 15 hours of play. I usually just play a couple of hours in my local casino. I used CVCX and use my based my play in the trip ruin where I stop my trip/session if I reach 300 profit / 2 hours of play. which put my risk about 7% from the 1500 trip bankroll. Fast forward I hit a big down swing. I am now 32 hours of play and lost all profit including the initial 1500. So I have now replenished my first bankroll. Should I change my bet spread or start red chipping? The 6 deck games in my casino is H17 DAS 1.7 deck penetration and can double on anything, but minimum is $15 during the times im available to play. I dont know if it's worth doing that.
cvcx.JPG



Im way below my EV now of $34/hr. Below is my Excel chart of where Im currently


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Im really just doing this as part time and for fun, but at least want to get something as I invest time for it. Any advice you guys can give?

[Freightman]

Just to clarify
Are you playing 62 cards or 42 cards. Are the rules the same between the lower limit and higher limit. If 42 cards, why are not playing the lower limit higher quality game (assuming better rules) vs the shitty rules of the centre cut higher limit game.

If playing 62 cards and better rules, consider these thread regarding replenishable bankroll. If rules are the same, then chase pretty girls.

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...preads-and-RoR

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...-help-a-newbie

There’s an idiot participating in this second thread. Extra points for figuring out who.

[21forme]

There’s an idiot participating in this second thread. Extra points for figuring out who.

Several actually, and that was before aceside graced us with his trolling and nonsense.

[aceside]

Several actually, and that was before aceside graced us with his trolling and nonsense.

Happy Thanksgiving to you! I started this blackjack adventure during the covid-19 pandemic but have been thinking about switching to poker at some point. Good luck to everyone!

[rex1530]

Apologies im quite not sure about 62 vs 42. Is that something i need to know in DD or 6 deck game? For the DD i play they cut .5 of a deck. So 1.5 deck is being played

[VonDox]

Well, did you ever consider downsizing your bets when you hit the losing streak? No shame when first starting out to red chip.. Also, if you have read any books, anything about Black Jack... the word variance pops up a lot. It happens.. You can play a perfect game and still lose.. 32 hours of play is really not that many hours and variance IS a real thing.. 320 hours.. 3200 hours... It's about the long haul and letting the math work out for you. Perhaps moving down to red chipping for awhile and playing adjusting your spread. It's about getting hours in and getting your game good at the start.. Ian Anderson in his book Burning the Tables in Las Vegas has a great chapter on green chip strategy... I have used it and works well for me.. I guess my last bit of advice is this... just leave the table when the count goes negative.. Grab your chips and go.. Consider wonging in if you can when the count is good. No shame at all from walking away from a -15 running count with a TC of -5.... Grab a drink, go outside and gets from fresh air and then try again.

[blueindia]

Ian's book is a real gem. I appreciate his technique and find his to be the one I want to replicate the most. Optimizing for longevity.
@ rex1530I'm also on a big downswing. That nasty variance. Only you can answer this question yourself, but yes, do consider downsizing your bet, as well as replenishing your bankroll, plus perhaps giving yourself a break to get back into the right mindset. This is the approach I have taken after losing several thousands consistently over the past few months. Also keep practicing at home. Always keep improving your game. If you aren't perfect, you lose that edge and your bankroll.

[Eternalotsi]

Deciding whether to stick with AP play is like pondering whether to double down or fold, ya know? It's a real head-scratcher, but hey, that's the beauty of poker—it's all about calculated risks.

[rex1530]

Well, did you ever consider downsizing your bets when you hit the losing streak? No shame when first starting out to red chip.. Also, if you have read any books, anything about Black Jack... the word variance pops up a lot. It happens.. You can play a perfect game and still lose.. 32 hours of play is really not that many hours and variance IS a real thing.. 320 hours.. 3200 hours... It's about the long haul and letting the math work out for you. Perhaps moving down to red chipping for awhile and playing adjusting your spread. It's about getting hours in and getting your game good at the start.. Ian Anderson in his book Burning the Tables in Las Vegas has a great chapter on green chip strategy... I have used it and works well for me.. I guess my last bit of advice is this... just leave the table when the count goes negative.. Grab your chips and go.. Consider wonging in if you can when the count is good. No shame at all from walking away from a -15 running count with a TC of -5.... Grab a drink, go outside and gets from fresh air and then try again.

Maybe i should wong out if TC is really down. Unfortunately once you go out in DD game you cant come back in. Need to wait for next shoe. Yeah variance is real for sure lol.

[VonDox]

In the early days of my game play when I didn't know as much as I do now ( still learning thankfully ) but stepping away from a really negative 2 deck, 4 deck or even more deck games is a better option when you have a limited bankroll like the amount you have. Not sure how much money you bring to your session bankroll but if you are playing at the $25.00 dollar table with a 1-6 spread and perhaps playing 2 spots you could drop as much as $600.00 over a few bad hands on a positive count which might be what happened to you. My suggestion is continue to play practice sessions, continue to save and build up your bank roll until you had $30k, then if you hit some bad variance you have enough cash so you can keep play thru it and win back that money. Just my 2 cents.. if you have the itch to play,, red chip to practice at keeping the count and still be able to look like all the other ploppies at the table who are jabbering away and drinking. Again recommend you look at the green chip strategy Ian Anderson laid out.. Might be a better option for you rather than playing double deck.. Best of luck.

[rex1530]

Appreciate the advice. Thank you so much!

[sondjata]

That's a pretty nasty drop there. Are you sure you are playing and betting correctly? Also what is the impact of the limited double down opportunities on your EV? That's a lot of doubling opportunities (which have high win rates) lost.

[rex1530]

That's a pretty nasty drop there. Are you sure you are playing and betting correctly? Also what is the impact of the limited double down opportunities on your EV? That's a lot of doubling opportunities (which have high win rates) lost.

It is really a nasty drop. And im still dropping im pretty sure im betting correctly. Variance is really getting me. Where the count is really high but the dealer is getting the high cards and im getting the bust or push cards. It is really not difficult to count on a double deck pitched game as it's slow as well. Sometimes i feel the casino is cheating me since it's a pitched game.