Does anyone have blackjack rebate calcaultor?

[frozendot]

Hi,

I'm looking for the blackjack rebate calculator referenced in this post:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/casin...l-spread-sheet

Unfortunately, the file seems outdated and i can't open it.

Does anyone have another calcluator, or an updated version that will work on the current version of excel?

Thanks

[Gronbog]

Here is the full solution with risk of ruin: https://advancedadvantageplay.com/wp...ution_ROR.xlsx

[peterlee]

Here is the full solution with risk of ruin: https://advancedadvantageplay.com/wp...ution_ROR.xlsx

What if I want to know the risk and the profit for a rebate plan, such as a 10% rebate if all the buy-ins are lost? I would also like to compare different betting patterns, such as betting all the buy-ins in a hand, or betting 1/2 of the buy-in, or betting 1/3 of the buy-in.

[Gronbog]

The spreadsheet requires the global EV and standard deviation of whatever betting + playing strategy you intend to use. You would obtain those by running a simulation using CVCX/CVData. It then gives you the optimal number of units to use as stopping points for winning and losing. It is most easily used with a flat betting strategy which would also provide the best cover. If the rebate is triggered by a specific loss amount, you would divide that amount by the optimal number of units to lose to get the size of bet you should use. I suppose that you could use the the average bet and global EV/SD from a CVCX simulation if you intend to count with a spread while playing. Telling it your overall bankroll gives you your risk of ruin. Telling it your session bankroll gives you your probability of triggering the rebate.

The results of the spreadsheet are intended to be theoretically optimal, but if you want to play around with other betting schemes, I suppose you would need to run a series of simulations to hone in on the strategy you want to use. The existence of the spreadsheet suggests that arbitrary fractions like all-in, 1/2, 1/3 of your bankroll etc will not be optimal.

[Norm]

As per Radical Blackjack, you would use a radical betting strategy.

[JohnGalt007]

As per Radical Blackjack, you would use a radical betting strategy.

I would have thought that, as per Professional Blackjack, you would use a professional betting strategy. You learn something new every day, I guess.

[peterlee]

Baccarat loss rebate plans can be found in Asia. Usually, there is no profit if more than several big bets are needed to reach the required amount of loss for the rebate. I used to do simulations to estimate the risk and profit.

[Norm]

If you are a high roller with a reserved table and a rebate, you might use techniques like dramatically increasing bets and/or number of hands when approaching the rebate point to either get the rebate or launch yourself back up. Of course this has a large effect on std. dev.

[peterlee]

If you are a high roller with a reserved table and a rebate, you might use techniques like dramatically increasing bets and/or number of hands when approaching the rebate point to either get the rebate or launch yourself back up. Of course this has a large effect on std. dev.

Yes, doing it by simulation program. Wondering if a spreadsheet can do it?

[Why not have a try on chatgpt type of AI...my experience was, they won't give a right answer! Will have a try.]

[peterlee]

(GPT-3.5):

To calculate the net expected value (EV) for the given baccarat scenario, we'll need to follow the steps I mentioned earlier. Given the information you provided:

Rebate Percentage: 10%
Rebate Loss Conditions: Loss of $10,000
Bet on Banker: $1,000 per hand
Let's break down the calculation:

Expected Loss Probability: To calculate the probability of losing $10,000 while betting $1,000 per hand on the banker, you'll need to consider the odds of the game. Baccarat has relatively favorable odds for the banker bet, with approximately a 1.06% house edge. This translates to a win rate of about 49.32% for the player on the banker bet.

Expected Loss Amount: The expected loss amount can be calculated by multiplying the probability of loss by the amount wagered. In this case, it's $10,000 (loss condition) multiplied by the probability of losing.

Expected Rebate: The expected rebate is 10% of the $10,000 loss, which is $1,000.

Net Expected Value: The net expected value is the expected rebate minus the expected loss amount.

Let's plug in the numbers and calculate:

Expected Loss Probability: 1 - 0.4932 ? 0.5068
Expected Loss Amount: $10,000 * 0.5068 ? $5,068
Expected Rebate: $1,000
Net Expected Value: $1,000 - $5,068 ? -$4,068

The net expected value for this scenario is approximately -$4,068. This means that, on average, a player following this betting pattern would expect to lose about $4,068 over the long run. Keep in mind that this is a simplified calculation and actual results can vary due to the inherent randomness of gambling outcomes. Additionally, baccarat odds may vary slightly between different casinos or rule variations.

[***Don't trust AI]

[Archvaldor]

Baccarat loss rebate plans can be found in Asia. Usually, there is no profit if more than several big bets are needed to reach the required amount of loss for the rebate. I used to do simulations to estimate the risk and profit.

Card counting can be used to limit losses to a house edge of .96% with flat betting. This is easy and costs nothing.

As Wattenberger points out you can change bet sizes.

Baccarat is unlike blackjack: you can for example skip hands without any one caring that much. You would want to exploit with enhanced bets deeper in the deal when the deck composition favored bank or player, reducing the house edge below 0.5% in extremis.

Hint: you can make a lot of money doing this.

I'd be curious to know what baccarat conditions are like in Asia currently if you have a moment. eg what is the depth of the deal? Do they still use one-pass shuffles for mini-bac? What about riffling/stripping or is it all machines now?

[peterlee]

Card counting can be used to limit losses to a house edge of .96% with flat betting. This is easy and costs nothing.

As Wattenberger points out you can change bet sizes.

Baccarat is unlike blackjack: you can for example skip hands without any one caring that much. You would want to exploit with enhanced bets deeper in the deal when the deck composition favored bank or player, reducing the house edge below 0.5% in extremis.

Hint: you can make a lot of money doing this.

I'd be curious to know what baccarat conditions are like in Asia currently if you have a moment. eg what is the depth of the deal? Do they still use one-pass shuffles for mini-bac? What about riffling/stripping or is it all machines now?

[Hint: you can make a lot of money doing this. ]
Wondering how?
I know that if I Ten count the bac shoe in UK, I might get all pictures left in the shoe with a guaranty tie, about once a year.

In Macau, usually 8 decks cut 1 deck. Never reuse, new decks every shoe, pre-shuffle by the card manufactory. Some mini-bac use 4th gen CSM.

Some years back in London, simple shuffle at the bac table, sequencing possible, I made 5k pounds sure-win bets twice in a week. Then a (east?)european team copied me and burned the game by using 9 players to bet 9 boxes 5k each.

[drunk]

You would want to exploit with enhanced bets deeper in the deal when the deck composition favored bank or player,

I don't get what you're saying at all

please give an example of what kind of deck composition would favor the bank and what kind of deck composition would favor the player

some have beaten bacc with edge sorting - certainly not easy - and probably very few opportunities

but if you know from markings on the back of the card that the first card out will be an 8 or 9 and you jam your bet up on Player you have a large advantage

this has been done - most famously by Phil Ivey - it caused him enormous problems - an unknown smaller stakes player could probably get away with it for a fair amount of time - see link

the general point of view is that edge sorting is neither illegal or in any way unethical - but the casinos who tried to recover funds from Ivey claimed otherwise and had some success in court

it was a long back and forth in several different courts

what a mess it was

I wouldn't do it or try it - no thanks - all that time and effort to find a few good bets - no way



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