Betting Strategy

[DM21]

Hello all,
I have been lurking on the site for a while now and I want to run something by everyone for input. I tried to do a search but could not come up with anything.

I have been playing BJ for years and have solid fundamentals, recently I have been honing my counting skills. I live within 1 hour from about 10 casinos so I go there a few times a month with pretty good sucess. I want to go more, be more proffitable but not get banned in the process so here is my the plan I have been working on.

Play straight up with the same bet amount and quit when I get up 5 bets or down 10 bets. Example; have a $2,000 br betting $200 a hand until I win $1,000 or lose $2,000. There aren't many times that I haven't been up by 5 or more hands but kept playing until I was even or down. I have been using this stragey in various simulators and I bust out about every 6 or 7 times. That would have me making $6,000 or $7,000 and losing $2,000 for a profit of $4,000 - $5,000. To make a profit of $1,000 you would have to bust out less than once every 4 tries.

I am want to bet evenly not to draw any heat and rotate the 10 casinos so I only visit each one less than once a week. I am sure that this has been tried before so I want to get any feedback.

Thanks for reading and any input.

[21gunsalute]

You said you've been lurking here for awhile, but obviously you haven't or you'd know the answer to your question. Without knowing a thing about Blackjack you should be able to conclude for yourself that risking losing $2000 for a chance to win $1000 is sheer stupidity!

[Smartpart]

April fools?

[21gunsalute]

April fools?

Yeah...one way or the other.

[njrich]

trout season opened on saturday but it seems all the fishermen are on here lol

[Intermediate]

To the OP - need some more background. Have you read any reputable Blackjack books? What process did you use to learn to count?

[DM21]

I have been focusing on hi-lo and speed count. I haven't read any books but mostly internet research and practice at home with real cards and a couple of phone apps. My question was more of what ceilings and floors do any of you have with each session? I am trying to take advantage of smaller positive spurts and avoid the larger down swings. I can't remember a time when I haven't been up five bets but I can remeber plenty of times when I was up five bets and hit a run of bad cards and gave most or all of it back. I am working to get my br up to five figures and should be there soon so I am still grinding it out.

I was hoping to have a place to run ideas by other blackjack players for feedback and some constructive critisism because I only know one other serious player that I work with. Intermediate, I appreciate your interest in my questions. I thought I was going to just move on to other resources.

[Norm]

You need to read some books. And forget Speed Count.

[21gunsalute]

Obviously you have no idea how or why counting works. If you flat bet you are going to lose, period! You need to raise and lower your bets with the count to obtain any kind of advantage. Your whole mindset is way off base. And why on earth are you willing to lose $2000 but only allowing yourself to win $1000?
What happens if you lose your $2000 BR the first time you try this? Why on earth would you bet $200/hand with only a $2000 BR? That is a sure recipe for immediate disaster! If what you've stated above is true than you've been very, very, very lucky so far. Don't expect that to keep happening once you actually try this out in a casino.

[DM21]

21gunsalute, I appreciate your feedback but you are making assumptions that are not correct. I never said that I was going to use counting while playing, I know how to count and the theory behind it. I am not to a point that I am going to go all in with a counting stragey. That is the reason that I am honing my skills. I never said that $2000 is my entire bank roll, I agree that betting 1/10th of your bank roll would end badly. I go to the casinos three to four times a month and I want to increase my visits so I don't want to get flagged for being a counter before I even get started.

The theory of my floor and ceiling is one that I am most interested in. I could try to win $5,000 with $2,000 but how many times would I bust out trying to accomplish that. I feel, and that is what I am trying to gauge here, that you would go up five hands three times before you go down 10 hands once. It is a more grinding approach than shoot for the moon. I have proven this many times but I don't have the table time that many here have. The psychcology is that when you are up you want more, where is the limit?

Again I am looking for good feedback, even if it is hard to swallow, but I don't appreciate the negative connotations and assumming I am an idiot.

Thanks again

[NT21]

In the words of Ivan Drago, "you will lose."

[21gunsalute]

21gunsalute, I appreciate your feedback but you are making assumptions that are not correct. I never said that I was going to use counting while playing, I know how to count and the theory behind it. I am not to a point that I am going to go all in with a counting stragey. That is the reason that I am honing my skills. I never said that $2000 is my entire bank roll, I agree that betting 1/10th of your bank roll would end badly. I go to the casinos three to four times a month and I want to increase my visits so I don't want to get flagged for being a counter before I even get started.

The theory of my floor and ceiling is one that I am most interested in. I could try to win $5,000 with $2,000 but how many times would I bust out trying to accomplish that. I feel, and that is what I am trying to gauge here, that you would go up five hands three times before you go down 10 hands once. It is a more grinding approach than shoot for the moon. I have proven this many times but I don't have the table time that many here have. The psychcology is that when you are up you want more, where is the limit?

Again I am looking for good feedback, even if it is hard to swallow, but I don't appreciate the negative connotations and assumming I am an idiot.

Thanks again

Look, I'm just replying to exactly what you have stated. If you aren't counting cards than you are playing a losing game, period (unless you're playing with another advantage technique such as STing orr HCing, which I seriously doubt). If you are counting cards, but not betting with the count than you are playing a losing game. Perhaps you've been lucky so far, but it won't continue indefinately. I hope you realize the house is playing with the edge, not you, and in the best case scenario you are only going to win 43% of the hands over the long run. Flat betting just won't cut it, and if you're ahead of the game so far you've been very lucky and the law of averages will catch up with you. Please heed this warning.

[21gunsalute]

I think you'd be better off using Martingale.