stand 16 v 10

**roliin** · 03-26-2023, 01:21 PM

I know from table 7.3 (bja3, pg.99) that always standing on 16 v 10 will cost the $100 bettor $2.65 per hour. Is there an easy way to figure out the cost of standing down to TC -1, -2?

**DSchles** · 03-26-2023, 02:43 PM

It will obviously be a little more, but not all that much. If you look at the graph of the play, the differences between hitting and standing, down to -2, are virtually inconsequential, particularly considering that you're likely to have a minimum bet out at the moment that you stand.

Don

**roliin** · 03-26-2023, 09:49 PM

"It will obviously be a little more, but not all that much."

Shouldn't the cost be a little less?

When I say standing down to TC-2, I mean that I will be hitting 16 v10 at anything worse than TC-2, like I'm supposed to. Given that I will be standing in neutral and positive counts and hitting at counts lower than TC-2 where I'm more likely to make the hand, shouldn't it cost a little (or a lot) less than always standing ($2.65 per hr)? I would only be playing the hand wrong at TC-1 and TC-2.

**21forme** · 03-27-2023, 05:50 AM

There's something known as "counter's basic strategy" which calls for standing on all 16vT to look less obvious. I don't have a reference for you (Don?), but always standing makes more sense than always hitting, as your incorrect play will always be with a minimum bet out, so the overall cost will be less.

(edited for typo)

**Gronbog** · 03-27-2023, 06:55 AM

I think the OP wants to know the cost of standing at TC>=-2 and hitting below -2.

**DSchles** · 03-27-2023, 08:51 AM

Originally Posted by Gronbog

I think the OP wants to know the cost of standing at TC>=-2 and hitting below -2.

Yes, I misunderstood. Sorry. I actually hesitated when reading, to see that I wasn't doing it backwards and then worded my answer incorrectly anyway.

Don

**roliin** · 03-27-2023, 11:29 AM

Originally Posted by Gronbog

I think the OP wants to know the cost of standing at TC>=-2 and hitting below -2.

Correct. Is there an easy way to get a rough estimate? It seems always standing is a little too costly for cover given the frequency of the hand. But, it also seems to be one of the major things they notice/look for (sometimes hitting and sometimes standing 16 v 10).

**Cacarulo** · 03-27-2023, 12:14 PM

Originally Posted by roliin

Correct. Is there an easy way to get a rough estimate? It seems always standing is a little too costly for cover given the frequency of the hand. But, it also seems to be one of the major things they notice/look for (sometimes hitting and sometimes standing 16 v 10).

Well, if you are counting using a system like Hi-Lo, you should simply run two simulations, one with the 16vT index set to 0 and the other with the 16vT index set to -2. Then you compare both SCOREs and calculate the cost. You can use CVData for this task.

Sincerely,
Cac

**roliin** · 03-30-2023, 11:30 AM

Originally Posted by Cacarulo

Well, if you are counting using a system like Hi-Lo, you should simply run two simulations, one with the 16vT index set to 0 and the other with the 16vT index set to -2. Then you compare both SCOREs and calculate the cost. You can use CVData for this task.

Sincerely,
Cac

Good point. Why didn't I think of that?

**DSchles** · 03-30-2023, 04:30 PM

Originally Posted by roliin

Good point. Why didn't I think of that?

That's why Cac gets paid the big bucks.

Don

**Cacarulo** · 04-01-2023, 06:03 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

That's why Cac gets paid the big bucks.

Don

**aceside** · 03-27-2023, 08:27 AM

This question is tricky. The answer depends on how you obtained your HiLo TC numbers. Did you floor or truncate?

**aceside** · 03-27-2023, 12:37 PM

It’s obvious that there isn’t very much probability for TC<=-3, so your cost of wrongfully playing this 16v.10 hand is still about $2.65 per hour. What is more important is the hit/stand critical TC point, though. I always use TC=+1 for hit/stand, but most people just say TC=+0.