Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post
Hi k_c, isn't it your bjstrat program can find out all combinations of the first round? Then we can know the exact ratios of cards are dealt in the first round.
Let me try to explain the problem relative to 1 player versus dealer.

1. Start with a full shoe and always use basic strategy

Code:
Round 1
   No matter where cut card is placed BSEV for first round = full shoe BSEV
   First round can consist of 4,5,6......x number of cards
   Some card combinations such as 4 cards consisting of 2,2,2,2 are impossible because round is incomplete

Round 2
   Cut card needs to be placed such that it is never encountered on round 1 regardless of number of cards dealt on round 1
   If this condition is met then round 2 EV = round 1 EV? I say yes.
If cut card is encountered on the first round at all this changes round 2 either more or less. For the series of sims I ran cut card was not encountered even once for 10,000,000 round 1 rounds when placed after the 15th card. The closer to the top cut card was placed the greater effect on round 2. Of course if it is placed after 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th card there is no round 2.

Having said this I don't know the effect on rank probabilities but I think the above parameters need to be considered in any sim to determine them. Position of cut card will certainly effect round 2 rank probs. Round 1 rank probs are just those of a full shoe. Would round 2 rank probs = round 1 rank probs if cut card is placed such that it can never ever be encountered in round 1? If not what would they be?

k_c