Hey guys
just after some feedback
i have a 5k bankroll which is replenishible every month or two.
im going to Vegas soon and thought the 10 min games would suit.
would the following spread be worth my time or should I increase it based on a 10k br.
tc - to tc 1 $10
tc 2 $20
tc 3 $30
tc 4 $40
tc 5 $50
tc 6 or more $60 max bet
i think this is about half Kelly
is this reasonable for a learner?
- Are you going to wong in/out? Backcount? Or do you plan on "playing all" hands? If you're not wonging out aggresively, that spread definitely won't cut it.
- I made a similar post a little while ago, check it out: https://blackjacktheforum.com/showth...he-summer-help
- I think best bet is to backcount 6 decks or spread 1-8 or 1-10 on DD's.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
Yes, you'd be overbetting your bankroll if you spread more. That's why you should probably back-count OR play a game where you don't have to spread quite so much. Even with wonging, you're probably looking at a 1-12 or higher spread...I'm sure someone with CVCX can figure it out though.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
for 6d at tc 3,4 max bet needs to be out . i would suggest at least $80- $ 100 at tc 4. AT tc 3 $40-$50 , t tc2 doesnt really matter too much ,but no more than $20. if your BR is replenisible then this is good enough with WONG in/out. You can go up a bit more at TC 5 $100 if you dont care about heat and you r moving around different stores .That is if you are only playing for no more than 20 hrs total with $5000 Br. You really need to calculate your expense too!!!!!
Last edited by stopgambling; 04-16-2013 at 09:21 PM.
I think i just read you need to travel by plane to LV ! You will not make enough to cover expense (around $2000+)Even if you only WONG in at tc +2 and spread 25-100 at a max of tc5.,you will not make the $ for expense .To fly to LV to play i think you need a min. of 20k replenisble BR to justify the expense and time ,effort and risk. p.s. Also you have daily expenses,unless room is comp (helps a lot)
the purpose of the trip is too simply play more live games and a short holiday at the same time. if i was more experienced then i would put together a large BR for a profit endeavour, however at my skill level i would not be comfortable with that. so essentially $10 - $100 spread (1-10) spread which is technically full kelly i think, so risk is quite high...
I took a crack at your scenario in CVCX. Based on CBJN, the 6D games on the Strip, and off strip, at the $10 betting level are all h17. Note there are only a half a dozen places with games at that level that deal 4.5/6.0 or better. I assumed you had a $10K BR and that you are taking $5K of it with you for a Trip Bankroll. I set up a 6D, h17, das, rsa, ls, game with 4.5/6.0 penetration, 70 hands per hour, with 4 players.Originally Posted by max85
Per your bet schedule, betting $10-$60 (a 1-6 spread), your lifetime RoR is 5.6% and a win/hour of $3.64. If you were to expand your spread at the bottom end at the $5 tables, and bet $5-60 (a 1-12 spread), your RoR would be 1.0% with a Win/Hour of $9.03. FYI -the Surrender option makes a big difference. If you don't have surrender, your RoR in the $10-$60 spread is 21%. If we modeled your scenario (and ls) with a bankroll of $5K , instead of $10K, your lifetime RoR for the $10-$60 spread is 23.6%, and for the $5-$60 spread, it’s 10.2%.
For a "learner" looking to get some real world practice mileage, and assuming you have a replenishable bankroll, your plan seems OK to me. With a limited bankroll, it's difficult to play at a lower RoR, so you don't have a lot of choices. I would play both the $5 and $10 games. Challenge yourself to get that 1-12 spread out there. Back counting, wonging, fewer players, faster dealers, and better penetration will improve your win-rate and lower your RoR.
(Additional Edit). If you were to follow this betting scheme at 6d, das, rsa (no surrender option), assuming a $10K bank
TC<2 $5
TC 2 $15
TC 3 $30
TC 4 $40
TC>=5 $60
your lifetime RoR is 1.1%. So you can see what reducing your bet at the lower end of your spread when you don't have an advantage does for you. Hope all of this isn't confusing you. Good idea to get CVCX and play with all the scenarios.
Last edited by Intermediate; 04-17-2013 at 09:01 AM. Reason: More info
To the OP ,you must aggressively WONG in at tc +2 and WONG out at tc -1 or worst at tc -2 for you to have a decent chance of making any $$ . You will also minimize the fluctuation which is very stressful if you are not used to it. I like to think max bets and half max bets are your "real bets" in play all or WONg out at TC -1/-2 . In any one shoe a lost of 10-20 max bets is not unusual at all. Save yourself some headache by wonging. Also in a 6d 4.5/6 game you need to get your bets out at tc 3/4 as most of the advantages are around tc 2-4.
Last edited by stopgambling; 04-17-2013 at 09:03 AM.
If your BR is replenishable, then try using the 10 K bank even if you bring 5 K.
There are still some $5 shoes & DD with decent pen if you do your scouting and play at the right times. A car will be essential for low limit games even if you stay on strip
A $5-$80 spread with heavy use of wong-outs will be much stronger than the 1-10. Bet table min until a TC of 2. Then bet (TC-1) x $20.
If you are going to play $10 shoes, make sure you have late surrender or great pen. (5/6). Both are available if you look hard enough.
Last edited by Zach Black; 04-17-2013 at 10:22 AM.
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