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Thread: Is This Free Bet a Positive Value Play

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  1. 11-18-2022, 12:40 AM #1
    Midwest Player
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    Well, I made a $25 bet on Caesars for the Packer game today. I took the Titans at +3 @100. The Packers suck so bad this year, I figured it was a pretty good bet. I didn't even watch the game. I took a nap for a few hours. So only have $75 more to bet to get my free bet.

    I not sure if the $10 free bet is positive ev. A $100 bet @ -110 will give about $91 profit. You will lose about half the time so on average you get $95 for you $100 bet a loss of $5. The $10 free bet will average a win of about $4.50 so a loss on the deal of about 50 cents. Did I figure this right?
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  2. 11-18-2022, 05:13 AM #2
    Old new guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Well, I made a $25 bet on Caesars for the Packer game today. I took the Titans at +3 @100. The Packers suck so bad this year, I figured it was a pretty good bet. I didn't even watch the game. I took a nap for a few hours. So only have $75 more to bet to get my free bet.

    I not sure if the $10 free bet is positive ev. A $100 bet @ -110 will give about $91 profit. You will lose about half the time so on average you get $95 for you $100 bet a loss of $5. The $10 free bet will average a win of about $4.50 so a loss on the deal of about 50 cents. Did I figure this right?
    Yes, if you bet it that way, it’s -EV..that’s why I’m saying don’t bet it that way .
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