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Thread: Is This Free Bet a Positive Value Play

  1. #11


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    MWP, we’ve discussed this before. You can make “zero-hold” bets on both sides of an event (like -300/+300) at zero cost to you. So, the value of the free bet becomes your EV. These odds combos are relatively easy to find with an odds finder service like OddsJam. Without that, not so much. However, you can get close. Most of these odds combos are found in alternate lines (spreads/totals). So, you could search “alternate lines” on an event in Caesars and then dig around somewhere else (DK, FD, etc) for the opposing side. To minimize your loss, your $100 you bet on Caesars should have the most negative odds. So, bet the $100 on the Caesars side and then do some easy math to figure out how much to bet on the other side to break as even as possible. Quick tip is that the TOTAL (wager plus winnings) should be equal for both sides. If you want to go for Diamond on Caesars, then do this 260 more times before the end of the year .

  2. #12


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    Caesars tier levels are worth a lot less than they used to be.

  3. #13


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    Well, I made a $25 bet on Caesars for the Packer game today. I took the Titans at +3 @100. The Packers suck so bad this year, I figured it was a pretty good bet. I didn't even watch the game. I took a nap for a few hours. So only have $75 more to bet to get my free bet.

    I not sure if the $10 free bet is positive ev. A $100 bet @ -110 will give about $91 profit. You will lose about half the time so on average you get $95 for you $100 bet a loss of $5. The $10 free bet will average a win of about $4.50 so a loss on the deal of about 50 cents. Did I figure this right?

  4. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Well, I made a $25 bet on Caesars for the Packer game today. I took the Titans at +3 @100. The Packers suck so bad this year, I figured it was a pretty good bet. I didn't even watch the game. I took a nap for a few hours. So only have $75 more to bet to get my free bet.

    I not sure if the $10 free bet is positive ev. A $100 bet @ -110 will give about $91 profit. You will lose about half the time so on average you get $95 for you $100 bet a loss of $5. The $10 free bet will average a win of about $4.50 so a loss on the deal of about 50 cents. Did I figure this right?
    Yes, if you bet it that way, it’s -EV..that’s why I’m saying don’t bet it that way .

  5. #15


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    Well, I made "Diamond" at Caesars, but I just made 4 regular bets to make my $100. I won 2 and lost 2. I came out with a small loss on the bets. However since I made Diamond in Nov I'm hoping they will give me a $20 free bet in early Dec.

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