The game is Spanish 21, 8-deck, stand-17, split aces 3 times, and draw to split aces. Basic strategy for this 9vs6 hand is doubling down, but Katarina Walker’s book, The Pro's Guide to Spanish 21, shows a hit/double index of -3. This looks like a typo. Walker’s HiLo count uses an initial running count of -32, so the neutral true count (TC) is TC=-4. It looks like the index should be -5. Has anybody noticed this problem?
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I don't play SP21 but obviously it might be a typo. I think your concern is correct. Doing a quick calculation, the index I get is -5.4 for S17 and -5.7 for H17, so -5 would be correct in both cases.Originally Posted by aceside
Good catch!
Sincerely,
Cac
Last edited by Cacarulo; 10-17-2022 at 11:44 AM.
Wonderful! Thank you! Please postpone consideration for H-17 games because their double-double down will change the hit/double indices a lot. Let us focus on S-17 games for now.
To beat this game, I’ve been using the so-called Secret Monkey Count (SMC), with tags (+1, +1, +1, +1, +1, 0, 0, 0, -1, -2) for the cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, X, Ace). It is balanced, so easy. To obtain the SMC indices, I just shifted up every Kat’s index by a value of 4. For example:
Kat HiLo indices: 9vs6 hit/double -5; 11vs10 hit/double -4.
SMC indices: 9vs6 hit/double -1; 11vs10 hit/double -0.
Are these SMC indices correct? Please help generate them if you can.
Last edited by aceside; 10-17-2022 at 08:48 PM.
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I just noticed some discrepancies on the 11vs10 hand, but this is not my concern. First of all, let’s assume all these Kat HiLo indices are correct, and we just transform them into SMC indices by adding a number 4. How reliable is this simple transformation? For the 9v6 hand, it is reliable because either an Ace or a Ten at higher TCs will improve this hand; however, for the 11v10 hand, it is not so reliable because an Ace at higher TCs will ruin this hand, and, the -2 tag of Ace in SMC may ruin it more. This is confusing.
Last edited by aceside; 10-18-2022 at 06:25 AM.
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Hi Cac,
I’ve thought about this again. It looks like your index for 9v6 is fine but that for 11vT is off. Norm might be correct on 9v6. I cannot get the exact numbers, but just estimate them. You probably neglected the double down rescue rule in Spanish 21, which is crucial for the hand 11vT but almost useless for 9v6. Taking into account the rescue rule, I find the 11vT Kat hit/double index to be about -4.
As for the transformation from Kat HiLo to SMC, I find a simple shift value of 4.3. We firstly shift them up by a factor of 4 and then inflate it by 0.3. Is this good?
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Yes, you're right. In my quick analysis I neglected the double down rescue. Please ignore my SP21 indices.
Ideally, you should use CVIndex. I don't think they can be estimated with simple shifts.
Sorry for the confusion.
Sincerely,
Cac
I’ve been using the so-called Secret Monkey Count (SMC)
Aceside, please, have a look:
SP21, H17 Yours Recommended 2 1 1 3 1 2 4 1 3 5 1 3 6 1 2 7 0 0 8 0 -1 9 0 -1 J -1 -2 Q -1 -2 K -1 -2 A -2 -3 BC 0.9524 0.9945
Remember, you are dealing with an 8-deck-shoe. Zero flirts with such a BEAST.
With enough practice, you will be able to handle this three-level count, without having to take extra lessons of Suggestopedia, to convince yourself that you´re a sort of new Kenny Uston.It can be done; you have my word for it.
Go, get them! Do it for Kat. Lovely woman. God bless her soul!
Best,
Zenfighter
Nice. There is another important index for this hand 11vT, that is, double except hit with 3 or more cards.
At a higher count, I would double a 3-card 11vT but hit a 4-card 11vT. What is the Kat HiLo index for this n-card decision for 11vT?
Kat hasn't discussed this. My friends, James989 and Super Natural, should know this, but they haven't showed up here for a long time.
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I've never tried to learn a level 2 or 3 count. Thank you for your info. I recently found some SP21 opportunities both in S17 and H17 games, but for now I prefer to stay on the S17 game, because it's simpler.
For the S17 SP21 game I play, I find the EOR numbers are (1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3) for the cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, X, Ace); therefore, the SMC with the tags (+1, +1, +1, +1, +1, 0, 0, 0, -1, -2) is not bad for me. For this game, I keep an ASC too.
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I noticed a no helpful comment on my original post and thus re-examined this part. The Kat HiLo index for this Spanish 21 hand of 9v6 should be hit/double at TC=-3.7. It looks like Kat truncated her indices.
However, another important index has bothered me for some time, that is, double/hit 11vT with 3 or more cards. At a higher TC, I would double/hit with 4 or more cards because the chance of having a 5-card 21 is slim at higher counts. Is this correct?
Last edited by aceside; 10-22-2022 at 09:46 AM.
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