losing streak

[roliin]

So I'm playing 4deck, H17, DAS, Sr ,RSA, 75% pen, starting with 20k BR on CVBJ. I'm betting $25 x 1 hand up to TC2, TC3=2x$50, TC4=2x$100, TC5= 2x$200. At one point early on my bankroll got up to $24,000. Somewhere around 25 hrs (25,000 hands) my bankroll got as low as $6000 ( I believe the probability of this is around 2%). By 32 hrs my bank was back up to $20k. Now, at 37 hrs I'm down to $7100. I believe the probability of being at $7100 (down -$12,900) after 37k hands is less than 2%. Software says win rate should be $54.99 per hour, SD $829.24 per hour. Can someone please help, not sure what I'm doing wrong?


According to the stats I'm playing correct 98% of the time. Stats say 900 play errors but I'm not sure how, as the following don't add up to 900: 177 surrender error, 69 split error, 56 soft DD error, 8 soft h/s errors,111hard DD error, 201 hard h/s error, 55 insurance error. I believe I'm playing better than 98% if you consider error warnings for not splitting tens, not doubling down 10 V 10, A etc. I purposely have the error warnings set for full indexes to help familiarize myself with some of the more obscure indices. Occasionally I double 10 v 10 or split tens etc. I double A8 v 4, 5, 6 @ 3, 1, -1 respectively using the old, complete hi lo indices. I play almost all hands but have probably bailed on 50 to 100 very negative shoes. When the TC approaches 3 I sometimes deviate from the betting scheme by parlaying to 2 x $25 to start ramping. I'm usually conservative raising my bets ( i use rounding), I.e. I will bet 2x$50 instead of 2 x$100 @TC4 if it's exactly between TC3 and TC4 or only slightly north of TC3.

[Freightman]

deleted initial post - issues with copy paste

So many posts seem to be deleted - wonder if it’s worth the effort - so many points of discussion, where to start. Keep in mind I’ve simmed none of this.

So, in 25 hours of play, 25000 hands - that’s only 40 hands a minute. You also mentioned 37k hands. I think you should circumcise that comment.


1. Slice it down to 2500 hands, slightly over 4 hands a minute. That’s either what you meant or it could be the CVBJ default. It also correlates to the std deviation number you posted.

2. It’s only 2% ROR (assuming 2% is right) if you’re resizing your bets with severe bankroll fluctuation. You’re not resizing. The reason I know that is because after dropping to 6k after 25 hours, you were back to 20k 7 hours later. You didn’t resize and given your stated approx 900 errors in 2500(you stated 25000) hands, you’re headed for trouble.

3. You’re betting is screwed up. The rules you mentioned, (though you didn’t mention if Surrender was late, ES10, or full ES). Off the top, house edge is somewhere between .33 and .53 (guesstimated). Let’s use ES 10, about .40, but for shits and giggles round it up to .5.
A. This means you’re even with the house at TC1, but you’re not raising your bet until TC2. Among other things, this means that you are generating substandard EV on too many hands between TC1 and TC2.
A.1.1 You’re initial cvcx sim (use flooring) should show you raising at TC1. Keep in mind you don’t have an advantage or disadvantage at TC1.0. Now redo the identical sim and push the radio button for half true counts. You will have a slightly different ramp.
A1.2 Why not go 1x25 to TC1, 1x50 at 1.5, 2x50 2.0 and go on your from there.
A1.3 The very profitable 10v10 doubles and 10 splits v 5&6 should be curtailed on a bankroll which can’t handle big variance on a limited bankroll. If smaller stakes are available, then redo your ramps and include those plays. A consideration as no other plays have such immediate impact on EV.
A1.4 Make sure you are using Risk Averse indices - a must for limited bankrolls with aggressive ramping.
A1.5 You mention holding off on occasion between 2x50 and 2x100. Why not 2x75. The theorists will have a bird, but correlate my comments to ramping on half true counts.
A1.6 Take with a grain of salt errors stated on betting mistakes, provided you adopt wagers associated with half true counts, but you are making to many mistakes. If you access to a competent counter in your area, consider having your game audited.

If you are simming that game because it is within your locale, consider sending me an email with stakes available etc to [email protected]

To simulate these games, you need standardized metrics, and for this purpose, there is no better metric than SCORE. However, SCORE is not the end all be all. You need to determine for yourself the goals you have measured against your own tolerance for risk, and to make intelligent decisions accordingly. I can assure you that I deviate from established sims constantly and am quite delighted with my results.

@aceside
Your post disappeared - why I don’t know - don’t think it violated any rules or perhaps it was a software issue. Come to think of it, I think 21forme lost one too. To answer you - I played a juicy game like this for several years. I know where that game exists today, though to far to go.

[Norm]

@aceside
Your post disappeared

Deleted because it stated there is no game this good in the real world. There are better, similar games with LS in the US. With several incorrect posts in a row, I've been patient; but it's time they stopped.

[Freightman]

Deleted because it stated there is no game this good in the real world. There are better, similar games with LS in the US. With several incorrect posts in a row, I've been patient; but it's time they stopped.

Im not defending - simply stating - Did he state as a hypothesis or as an absolute. There is a difference. As an absolute, sure - as a hypothesis, granted he presses limits but that’s free thought. I kinda sorta think it was the latter though it would need to be reviewed to determine.

[aceside]

Im not defending - simply stating - Did he state as a hypothesis or as an absolute. There is a difference. As an absolute, sure - as a hypothesis, granted he presses limits but that’s free thought. I kinda sorta think it was the latter though it would need to be reviewed to determine.

I have to admit I made a random statement earlier to test if there is such a game somewhere. It is pretty rare, I guess. I haven't encountered such a game, at lease. Even if there is one, it is probably watched very closely.

[Freightman]

I have to admit I made a random statement earlier to test if there is such a game somewhere. It is pretty rare, I guess. I haven't encountered such a game, at lease. Even if there is one, it is probably watched very closely.

So, the question remains - Did you mean that as an absolute fact, or as a hypothesis.

In my red chip days, I had 2 local stores with almost completely identical rules. I knew of others elsewhere. One store that I played had it absolutely backwards. The superior game was 4 deck low limit $5-$100 with great cut. The lousy game was hi limit 6 deck shitty cut. Low limit was crowded and slow. Hi limit was also crowded and slow. As I graduated to higher stakes, I left that place for several years until - see thread https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...id-style/page4
post 34, paragraphs 7&8.

Scouting and networking generate opportunity.

[aceside]

...
Scouting and networking generate opportunity.

My comprehension skill is very limited, so I cannot divide an absolute fact or a hypothesis. All I can say is that I rarely played a 4-deck game, except one time in a New Orleans casino. Also, I formally joined this forum about 1.5 years ago and thus missed a lot of your earlier posts. Just reading them, I noticed you mentioned a 4-deck ES10 DAS NRSA H17 game in your earlier posts, but I doubt it exist in USA. I did play a few 2-deck SUR and NRSA games though.

[Freightman]

My comprehension skill is very limited, so I cannot divide an absolute fact or a hypothesis. All I can say is that I rarely played a 4-deck game, except one time in a New Orleans casino. Also, I formally joined this forum about 1.5 years ago and thus missed a lot of your earlier posts. Just reading them, I noticed you mentioned a 4-deck ES10 DAS NRSA H17 game in your earlier posts, but I doubt it exist in USA. I did play a few 2-deck SUR and NRSA games though.

Certainly appears to be a hypothesis vs an absolute fact, which therefore puts this into the realm of a question. On that basis, I can’t imagine why your post (granted, based on my recollection) would be deleted.

I suppose the only method of 100% determination would be to undelete said post and review against the Queen’s English. PDS appears to be rampant.

[Norm]

He stated this as an outright fact including that it was too good to be true.

There are constant claims that too many and too few posts are deleted. There are constant claims that too many and too few posters are banned. You can't satisfy everyone. Frankly, I don't have time for this. And I doubt the OP has any interest in this crap.

[Freightman]

He stated this as an outright fact including that it was too good to be true.

There are constant claims that too many and too few posts are deleted. There are constant claims that too many and too few posters are banned. You can't satisfy everyone. Frankly, I don't have time for this. And I doubt the OP has any interest in this crap.

I was involved in a contractual based lawsuit about 24-25 years ago. Fairly significant dollars were involved (don’t recall, either 200k or 400k). This was a no brainer win based on wording in a contract. The other party apparently meant one thing while putting pen to paper with wording meaning entirely something else. My client accepted contract based on what was on paper vs what the other party apparently “meant”. The difference in dollars billed was the aforementioned 200k-400k. The Queen’s English prevailed.

The only real way to determine if said comments were absolute or hypothetical is to undelete said post.

[Norm]

I'm sure the OP is greatly interested in this. Talk about it privately.

Closed