What Are the Odds of Success in This Promotion

**DSchles** · 10-20-2022, 09:05 PM

Originally Posted by Midwest Player

Overall I'm right at 50%, 15 out of 30 correct. Just like flipping a coin.

So much for your handicapping ability!

Don

**ShipTheCookies** · 10-21-2022, 08:51 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

So much for your handicapping ability!

Don

Well, you card counters win the insurance bet just over 33% of the time where as me and my players win it 100% of the time. ;-)

**Midwest Player** · 10-22-2022, 01:09 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

So much for your handicapping ability!

Don

Well this week I beat the average of everyone else. Here is how everyone else did.

You scored 4/5 this past week, which beat the average score of 2.42/5.

**Midwest Player** · 10-23-2022, 11:01 PM

Got 2 out of 5 right for my 7th week picks on this NFL promotion. Still have 9 more tries to nail it.

**Midwest Player** · 10-31-2022, 01:30 AM

I think I nailed it for my 8th week pick, but they didn't give me any money yet. I have 5 green check marks by my picks so that should be good for $250. Maybe they have to verify everything before they payout.

Still have 8 more weeks to go, maybe I can win again. My overall picks is 22 out of 40 for 55%

**Midwest Player** · 11-01-2022, 11:33 AM

You've been credited DK Dollars for having a Perfect Week 8 in the Dynasty Pick 'Em Pool!*

Yep, I got my $250 DK dollars today. Also got $5 free credits from the leaderboard, and I won my free bet on the Packers at +11. Didn't need the 15% lossback promotion as I won on every day of the promotion.

Now we will see what Nov has in store.
Yep, Nov starts off with an Iron Man contest. Positive expected value of $1,000 in free credits for $100,000 in play, but has to be completed by Thursday midnight. Don't know if that is enough time to complete it.

**Midwest Player** · 11-01-2022, 01:10 PM

Did I calculate this correctly?

31/32^8=77.6% Then 100%-77.6% =22.4% chance of winning again with 8 weeks left to go.

**DSchles** · 11-01-2022, 04:53 PM

Originally Posted by Midwest Player

Did I calculate this correctly?

31/32^8=77.6% Then 100%-77.6% =22.4% chance of winning again with 8 weeks left to go.

Yes. Actually 22.4% chance of winning at least once (not losing all eight weeks). You might win more than once! For example, the probability of winning exactly twice is 2.26% (one chance in 44). Don't count on it!

Don

**Midwest Player** · 11-06-2022, 07:44 PM

3 out of 5 correct for week nine. Overall 25 out of 45 correct.

**Freightman** · 11-08-2022, 04:41 PM

Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies

Well, you card counters win the insurance bet just over 33% of the time where as me and my players win it 100% of the time. ;-)

A serious question for the CSM man. I don’t know the answer to this.

A trend I’ve noted on ASM machines in my local markets (most of which no longer welcome my company) is that certain trends mirror themselves on subsequent shoes. I’m honestly don’t know the ASM model numbers and for that matter the different CSM models which are available. Now, in the markets I’m used to, cards are not changed on a daily basis, and for that matter, cards are changed depending on store, every 7-14 days.

Now, it might be my imagination - in your experience - ASM or CSM - would this practice affect the sorting procedure creating the sort of predictability I’ve alluded to. If this is on point and is sensitive, advise and I will remove.