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Thread: Discard Slugs

  1. #1


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    Discard Slugs

    When researching card clumping, Bryce Carlson was admittedly surprised to note a small positive EV with 5 or more players with very poorly shuffled cards.

    I believe this phenomenon occurs due to the dealer pick-up procedure paired with the unrealistically poorly shuffled cards.

    Assuming I am correct, could the skillful, 6 -deck player playing with 4 other players theoretically gain a small amount of EV (but still be playing at a disadvantage) for a round or two if she could place the cut card for the freshly shuffled shoe at the beginning of what was one of the 3 discard slugs (admittedly now shuffled along with the rest of the 6-deck shoe) from the previous shoe under the premise that the roughly 26 or so cards comprising each of the former discard slugs is more 'purely preserved' with respect to an apparent and unintentional but player-favorable, systematic ordering by the dealer's pick up procedure because the cards in each of the 3 slugs have undergone the pick-up procedures one less time than the rest of the shoe and are therefore more likely to retain a more pristine player-favorable ordering?

    Sorry for the run-on sentence, Mrs. Allen (my high school English teacher) and Don.

    Replies to the above theoretical question may help me gain insight into a more realistic blackjack setting I have in mind.
    Last edited by Overkill; 08-12-2022 at 01:41 AM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    Sorry for the run-on sentence, Mrs. Allen (my high school English teacher) and Don.
    I was wondering if I was going to run into a period there somewhere!

    Don

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    When researching card clumping, Bryce Carlson was admittedly surprised to note a small positive EV with 5 or more players with very poorly shuffled cards.

    I believe this phenomenon occurs due to the dealer pick-up procedure paired with the unrealistically poorly shuffled cards.

    Assuming I am correct, could the skillful, 6 -deck player playing with 4 other players theoretically gain a small amount of EV (but still be playing at a disadvantage) for a round or two if she could place the cut card for the freshly shuffled shoe at the beginning of what was one of the 3 discard slugs (admittedly now shuffled along with the rest of the 6-deck shoe) from the previous shoe under the premise that the roughly 26 or so cards comprising each of the former discard slugs is more 'purely preserved' with respect to an apparent and unintentional but player-favorable, systematic ordering by the dealer's pick up procedure because the cards in each of the 3 slugs have undergone the pick-up procedures one less time than the rest of the shoe and are therefore more likely to retain a more pristine player-favorable ordering?

    .
    Theoretically, yes. In practice, in any actual casino, even the most inept shuffle will destroy most of the order that Bryce talks about.

    This type of effect is also extraordinarily sensitive to initial conditions. Moving a card here or there assuming a gross shuffle could reverse the advantage significantly.

    If you are going to pursue this type of research I'd like into ways to control rather than simply observe the card order.

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