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Thread: I need your opinion ....

  1. #1


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    I need your opinion ....

    I had yesterday an interesting conversation with an ap who shuffle tracks shoe games ,about different shuffle procedures.

    I also remembered at wongs Profesional bj where he mentioned the basic strategy, against 6 decks not shuffled at all ,would give him still an edge .

    Also I remembered an old post of caraculo about testing counting vs 6d no shuffled just in the order that the cards are unpacked.



    Anyone can help me with a sim 6d s17 das doa 1 deck off penitration 1-20 spread hi-lo .CARDS REMAIN IN SAME ORDER AS UNPACKED??

    I want to see sd /variance/ no and compare it with the same rules and pen and spread of a randomly shuffled shoe ?

    Thanks 4 your time and your answers

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Strategy and results would change substantially with number of players, and how other players played. Also, hole carding would be trivial. Further, there would be a perfect strategy which would have to take into account future hands in the entire shoe. Nothing about this really relates to anything realistic.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  3. #3


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    Yes but I am speaking to apply card-counting into not shuffled decks.logical u still have an adv against house.but what about SD?

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by stefan View Post
    I had yesterday an interesting conversation with an ap who shuffle tracks shoe games ,about different shuffle procedures.

    I also remembered at wongs Profesional bj where he mentioned the basic strategy, against 6 decks not shuffled at all ,would give him still an edge .

    Also I remembered an old post of caraculo about testing counting vs 6d no shuffled just in the order that the cards are unpacked.



    Anyone can help me with a sim 6d s17 das doa 1 deck off penitration 1-20 spread hi-lo .CARDS REMAIN IN SAME ORDER AS UNPACKED??

    I want to see sd /variance/ no and compare it with the same rules and pen and spread of a randomly shuffled shoe ?

    Thanks 4 your time and your answers
    Interesting. Though some may question my thought process. Assume hole card game - here goes.

    First, heads up is obviously most preferable. An ordinary mid IQ brain should be able to figure out
    player ace, dealer 2, player 3, dealer hole card 4 (assuming that’s the procedure - if not reverse 3 &4) player 5 for 19, dealer 2, 4, 6,7 - push - Then player 8, dealer 9, player x - stand and lose dealer 9x - just continue the cycle between big bet small bet. Playing heads up gives you total control. To maximize (with quick exit out the door) you don’t need to spread - either min or max bet. Further, you can study ridiculous pass and hit sequences to maximize win.

    2 or more players are now subject to ploppyish variables. Seems to me first base is your best position. You can totally control your hand and control no others. You can forget the alluded to ridiculous hit pass heads up sequences seeking only to maximize your hand. Maybe a quick think would now justify some sort of spread.

    Just my opinion. Can’t help you with sim, other than the fact you can do your manual calculations for the clearly profitable heads up game.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by stefan View Post
    I had yesterday an interesting conversation with an ap who shuffle tracks shoe games ,about different shuffle procedures.

    I also remembered at wongs Profesional bj where he mentioned the basic strategy, against 6 decks not shuffled at all ,would give him still an edge .

    Also I remembered an old post of caraculo about testing counting vs 6d no shuffled just in the order that the cards are unpacked.

    Anyone can help me with a sim 6d s17 das doa 1 deck off penitration 1-20 spread hi-lo .CARDS REMAIN IN SAME ORDER AS UNPACKED??

    I want to see sd /variance/ no and compare it with the same rules and pen and spread of a randomly shuffled shoe ?

    Thanks 4 your time and your answers
    Hi Stefan, my nick is Cacarulo and not caraculo I really don't remember that post you mention.
    Also your question is strange and as Norm says, unrealistic. It may be possible to run a simulation using BS
    (which would not be the best strategy in this case), but what would be the conditions?
    Six decks are presented in their original state and without shuffling them are inserted into the shoe?
    No cut card?
    Until what penetration is played? I see you mention 5/6, sorry.
    What happens when the first shoe is finished? insert the discard tray back into the shoe without cutting and deal again?
    or are six decks taken again in their original state and inserted into the shoe?
    single player or multiple players?
    As you see, there are many variables.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

    PS: I'm not saying that I'm going to run the simulation since I don't see much point in it.

  6. #6


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    The target of my post is someone to run a sim with unshuffled decks and apply basic strategy and card counting based spread.

    Freight man thanks 4 your answer. I also agree that first base is somehow different than others in a situation like that.but when we say unshuffled decks against basic strategy i mean not to play knowing the next card that will come out even if we know it

    Cacarulo nice to get your correct nickname.

    Your post was before some years In a thread about clumping. U had done as a home experiment to play bs and spread against a shoe of 6decks unshuffled and u had hit as I remember fast neg swings.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by stefan View Post
    The target of my post is someone to run a sim with unshuffled decks and apply basic strategy and card counting based spread.

    Freight man thanks 4 your answer. I also agree that first base is somehow different than others in a situation like that.but when we say unshuffled decks against basic strategy i mean not to play knowing the next card that will come out even if we know it

    Cacarulo nice to get your correct nickname.

    Your post was before some years In a thread about clumping. U had done as a home experiment to play bs and spread against a shoe of 6decks unshuffled and u had hit as I remember fast neg swings.
    Hi Stefan,

    The key is the word "unshuffled". I could run a simulation with a "poor shuffle" and get an "A" result. This would make you happy but then I could run another simulation with another "poor shuffle" and get an "B" result totally different from "A" result.
    What do we do in this case? Would you stay with "A" or with "B"? Do you understand where I want to go? In addition to being unrealistic, the simulation itself would tell us absolutely nothing.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  8. #8


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    Its not matter of making me happy.i just want to compare some numbers.i want to see how randomness is "created" and the impact on bs and cc

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by stefan View Post
    Anyone can help me with a sim 6d s17 das doa 1 deck off penitration 1-20 spread hi-lo .CARDS REMAIN IN SAME ORDER AS UNPACKED??
    Last year somebody posted a website on BJ21.com to research this. I tried it a few times but couldn’t get a consistent result. Both Cacarulo and Norm can easily do this, but they do not see any good motivation for doing this.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by stefan View Post
    Its not matter of making me happy.i just want to compare some numbers.i want to see how randomness is "created" and the impact on bs and cc
    Let's assume that we are going to play 6D-S17-DOA-DAS-SPA1-SPL3-NS-5/6, only basic strategy and as a counting system we will use Hi-Lo.
    We are not going to use any type of advantage play due to the fact of knowing the order of the cards or the knowledge of the next card.
    Let's also assume that there will be no shuffle procedure and NEW DECKS will be used from which we will only remove the jokers.
    Then we will put deck after deck in the shoe and start dealing. No burned cards.
    The first card to come out of the shoe will be an Ace, then a two, etc. etc.
    Playing BS and flat betting, what would our advantage/disadvantage be?
    The answer will depend on the brand of cards. There are brands where the order in which the cards are arranged inside the pack
    differs depending on the manufacturer. For example:

    Case #1: A->K of hearts, A->K of clubs, A->K of diamonds, A->K of spades.
    Case #2: A->K of hearts, A->K of clubs, K->A of diamonds, K->A of spades. (Bicycle)

    In both cases the EV is positive but in case #2 it's better.

    Case #1:

    EV = 0.300000
    Var = 0.760000
    Sd = 0.871780

    Case #2:

    EV = 0.468750
    Var = 0.587565
    Sd = 0.766528

    30% in the first case and 47% in the second!
    Penetration does not alter EV.

    Hope this helps.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

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