Set an appropriate expectation

[BJmath]

I have wanted to start a new thread about how to set a sound expectation for the BJ game as an AP, meant to be a follow-up and closely related threat to my another thread entitled 'Define disciplilne' (http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?4387-Define-discipline, although quite a few posts under which deviated to a different topic). Related to setting an appropriate expectation for the game, I think the following was well said (in one of Tthree's posts that could be found at
http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?4496-Being-happy-about-gaining-EV&p=37034#post37034):

Paradoxically this doubling and splitting more often with bigger bets out can get costly in the short run. In the long run these bets made at any big TC will include losing streaks. Having a losing streak doesn't make a winning streak due but it is normal in the course of getting to the long run. If you can't figure out getting the opportunity to make those bets at the right time is your goal and the math will win against the runs in the long run you are psychologically going to have a rough go of it in this business. Letting the losses get into your head IS likely to actually cost you EV as you steam or become to timid when betting or making playing decisions. Just be happy you got the opportunity to put those big bets out and do it as the math indicates. In the long run each bet works as a team with all other bets made at that TC to give you your long term result. Don't sweat the short run. The math you use to gain an edge is about the long run. If you have trouble understanding that you will have a tougher time dealing with the swings.

I may still have many questions around this topic, but I'd like to ask the following (I hope) simpler questions first: Is it worth spending so much time and effort in this game that has such a tiny mathematical edge (assuming you are only counting)? Is the expectation really (or should the expectation be) on winning $, or how much weight of the expectation does one typically (or should one) put on winning $ vs entertainment? I suppose the game could be very lucrative 20 (or 10) years ago, but is it still the case nowadays? As I gather, as long as you don't aim too high (which is unrealistic anyway given the tiny edge you have in the game), then you'll be in an easier position to be disciplined. Still, it's kind of hard to NOT GAMBLE in the game as (I think) also implied by some other posts from pros or experienced AP's (suggesting occasional super max bets 30-50% above the max bets). BTW, if the super max bets are still within the mathematically sound range (such as <= 1% of the bankroll), why were they not set as the max bets in the first place? What's the difference between them? It looks like I still couldn't help asking many questions. Ok, I'll stop here for now.

[blackjack avenger]

The more optimal way is to have the rare advantage hands included in your bet ramp.
I.e.
A 1 to 16 spread is superior to
A 1 to 10 with an occasional higher bet whenever the opportunity presents itself.

[HockeXpert]

Another reason for the super max bet is heat tolerance and/or pending exit. Certain thresholds and spreads draw unwanted attention and players play just below the tolerance level until they see an appropriate opportunity to go passed that threshold. This is not gambling. This is playing within the rules and constraints laid down by the house.

[blackjack avenger]

This thinking raises the long run. It's stated these supra max bets raise heat. So your increasing your long run and adding heat!
Why not raise some of your smaller bets. This would also add to long run, but not draw extra heat.

Now if you use a very large spread with top bets in those rare TCs then you have a lower long run with rare very large bets.

[NT21]

I don't have a problem with heat. My bet spread is not designed to be optimal in a computer. It is designed to be optimal in a casino. It allows for bet jumping without looking unnatural.

Well put.

[Roscoe]

Spending time and effort's good, if one finds it extremely wonderful and enjoyable, and gets peace of mind from it. The basic underlying point, of course, should be "to make a great amount of money," but there's nothing wrong with being intoxicated with the felt tables and clatter of chips. Or when one's pulse pounds in the ears while placing a maximum bet 10 times in row: sometimes winning, and sometimes not.