Dynamic Insurance

[aceside]

Well, it's true. Actually in post #43 he says that at a TC of +6.5 the advantage is 7.4%. Then in post #48 he says that the advantage is 8.3%.
It is not clear what he meant, but 8.3% is quite close to the 8.27% that I calculated.

Sincerely,
Cac

This is confusing but let me clarify. The purpose is to find out: how important is insurance in Hi-Lo card counting? In other words, what portion does insurance contribute to the player's total edge?


When TC=+6.5, the dealer firstly draws an ace up card, and then the player edge gain from insurance is 7.4%. However, when the dealer shows an ace up card, the player edge gain from insurance is 8.3% at TC=+6.5. These two numbers look reasonably different because they are counted differently. No concern for me here.

We also have to consider how often we encounter the insurance side bet. Insurance happens 8.9519% of the times at TC=+6.5. Averaging to each time, we obtain the average edge gain per time from insurance, 7.4%x8.9519%x0.5=0.33%. Here the 0.5 factor takes into account the 0.5 bet unit of insurance. Now, we assume the total player edge gain is 4% when TC=+6.5, and finally find that insurance produces 0.33%/4%=8.3% of the total player edge gain.


Let me also present my second part of calculation: how important is player's blackjack in Hi-Lo card counting? I am not so confident in this part.

When TC=0, player has 4.7% blackjacks; when TC=+6.5, player has 6.4% blackjacks. Each new blackjack gives the player a 0.5 unit edge; therefore, the player edge gain from these additional blackjacks when TC=+6.5 is 0.5x(6.4%-4.7%)=0.85%. Similar to above calculation, we find that player blackjack produces 0.85%/4%=21.3% of the total player edge gain. Correct?