How much is the possibility to lose it all?
I've read somewhere it's about 13% in the long run. But how long is the long run?
You ask strange questions. Do you want the variance of a hand at each true count? Or, do you want the global variance for a counter who is spreading his bets? And, if so, in what manner? Please don't ask short one- sentence questions that don't specify properly what you're looking for. I can't answer them if they're expressed like that.
Usually, every TC point changes the advantage by 0.5%
So, a TC of 10 would give you about 5% advantage minus the house edge (say 0.5%) for a net 4.5%
If your bankroll is $10K, you should bet $450 divided by the variance (say 1.3225) = $340 for a full Kelly bet or 13.53% RoR without replenishing your bankroll.
If you prefer a lower RoR (say 1.83% or half Kelly), then divide the bet by 2 and you get $170
G Man
The value of index play in the higher counts increases that edge that I would average about .7% per TC starting on a risk averse basis at about TC3 - 8 v6 for example, 8v5 and 99v7 at TC5 and 10 v 10 at TC7. Splitting 10’s (I don’t split) v4,5,6 are also of interest to some players. Proponents of QTC would expect to see higher returns.
Although profitable, I would question the wisdom of some if these plays with those in shoestring bankrolls.
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