No one believes card counting works.

[zengrifter]

User is banned, content deleted.

[Black Yak]

There is one statement on card counting I have seen that concerns me and it's this:

'In a high count the dealer has just as much chance as you for scoring a good hand.' What, if anything, is wrong with this statement? Is it true?

I saw that posted the other day - What I couldn't figure out is why on earth guy have even bothered learning to count if he thought that! Imagine getting that sort of money out having not made the 'the giant conceptual leap' that high cards are not what you want if you are forced to keep drawing. Too funny.

[RS]

Any time I have tried to explain this to close family members, they shake their heads slowly as if to say, "Poor man. Doesn't he know you can't beat the casino." I have quit trying.

That's my favorite! It's almost like people think that with age brings knowledge (not wisdom). "The only way to win in the long run is to win quickly, then invest your winnings." or "You can't make any money doing this, you're gambling. You JUST said that you lose more hands at the beginning of the shoe, but towards the middle or end when the 'count' gets good, you bet more!? You're chasing your losses!!"

[muffdiver]

[QUOTE=Tthree;37649] The dealer has the same chance of getting a good hand as you do.

I can't agree with that Tthree. First two cards yes, but again, because the dealer is required to hit all 12-16's it swings the edge to the player, I believe.

[Black Yak]

Dealer bust rate hardly changes in high counts because they get fewer stiffs. His statement is true. If the dealer has a stiff and so do you but he has a 7 or higher up most of the time you bust first. Occasionally the match up is a stand due to the high count. Your edge comes from the blackjack bonus more opportunities to split with better results and more and better doubles. The dealer still busts at almost the same rate. The dealer has the same chance of getting a good hand as you do. In high counts the dealer busts less than in any other counts.

Hi TThree - I guess I was talking about the probability of busting an individual players hand or a dealers hand independent of the other factors you discuss. Surely if the dealer has 12,13,14,15 or 16 in a high count and gets to play their hand they are surely much more likely to bust than a player with the same hand, as the player can take index plays to reduce the amount of busts when there are lots of high cards likely to be coming out, whereas the dealer has to keep drawing? Or you think the high amount of tens means that the effect of the dealer more easily being able to make a high hand outweighs this increased likelihood of busting an individual hand compared to the player? I'm not disputing what you are staying I'm just trying to understand this!

[dharmaprija]

I have never heard of nor seen any EMPIRICAL demonstration of the efficacy of card counting. I challenge ANYONE to demonstrate ten million hands of blackjack on youtube, heads up, hand by hand and DEMONSTRATE the truth of card counting.

[dharmaprija]

I love the smell of sarcasm in the morning...challenge stands though.

[seriousplayer]

I actually do believe cardcounting works. What I am trying to say is 99% people do believe cardcounting doesn't work.

• Yeah, don't think chang meant 100% of people say it does not work at all -- just that there is a huge amount of people that believe it doesn't work / it's illegal or cheating / etc.
• I also agree that it helps APs. Some people read up on counting and go to the casino to win. Casino personnel know that these low-level counters are amateurs and will likely fail, clumping the APs who are properly bankrolled into that category.

In response to change: I must admit those people who think card counting don't work do not understand the nature of the game blackjack. First we must understand that the game of blackjack is mathematics. It is all mathematics. When something don't make sense in blackjack think it in term of mathematics. The strategy card counting came from mathematics. What makes card counting work is that when cards are already play those same cards can't be played again. This creates a situation in statistic called a dependent event which creates the nature of blackjack. That is what make the card counting method effective. Except if the blackjack game is CSM than the card counting method is no longer effective.

Second in replying to rollingstoned you said "some people read up on counting and go to the casino to win. Casino personnel know that these low-level counters are amateurs and will likely fail, clumping the APs who are properly bankrolled into that category." In most things in life failure is common and this includes card counting. The purpose is to learn from those failures in card counting and gain more experiences. Failure is a stepping stone into being successful. This not only applies to counting cards but in life. The people who fails is a lethal force to be reckon with. Failing does not give indication that card counting don't work or not effective. Once they get pass the stage of failure then they will start to success.

[muffdiver]

What you two are forgetting is that you will be hitting your 12, 13 against that likely dealer upcard of T or A in a high count. If you bust as you are likely to you lose. If the dealer has a low card under and also busts you still lose. You may get to stand on some of your 15 and 16 as well as some of your 14's but you will hit your 12 and 13 and some of your 14's. The effect you are referring to is minimal as these affect mentioned work in opposition.It is your Blackjack bonus, doubles and splits that give you your advantage.

Please don't assume that I'm forgetting anything because you're as wrong on that as you are in your explanation. Do some research and you'll find that everything I said is correct. What YOU are forgetting is that the original question was "in a high count does the dealer have same chance as player of scoring a good hand?" For the last time I'll say the answer is, first two cards yes-------overall no!

[RS]

A player's "good" hand is different than a dealer's "good" hand. Both player and dealer could have the same hand (6,6), and guess who has the better hand, the player does, even though they're the same hand! A player's BJ is 1.5x as "good" as a dealer's BJ, due to the payout, although both hands are Ace,Ten. One person is saying apples are fruits, while the other is saying carrots are vegetables -- you're both right.

[Kat]

Which is the better hand in 33 V 7?

[RS]

I would guess a dealer 7 since 3,3 is a defensive split in this situation? (If it were an offensive split, then the 3,3 would be better).