Being happy about gaining EV?

[RS]

So, I've read people post things like, "Even though I lost $4,000, I'm still happy because I made $250 in EV." or some other numbers in there, as if the actual result doesn't matter, but only the EV matters. If your EV is $250/hour, then it's going to take you what, 16 hours to make back that loss of $4,000, right? It's not like the next 1 hour session you're going to win $4,500 (making back the 4k you lost, then adding two 250's of your EV). It seems like even card counters and APs believe in the whole "being due" stuff, as if the past has any correlation (or inverse correlation) for the future.

[lurppis]

You're correct. However, focusing on EV is a good way of making sure you focus on EV, if that makes sense. People who say they're happy because of the EV they 'earned' are usually (unless they're making the mistake you describe) just happy because they played well. I think it's a good attitude to have in life in general - if you know you did your best, and got screwed by something outside your control, then celebrate, or at least take away from it some confidence that you might do well next time. If you know you didn't do something well, but got lucky, celebrate the win, but don't celebrate your performance.

[Intermediate]

Focussing on EV makes you think about the games and conditions you choose to play, and thus can help keep you away from marginal conditions as you attempt to make back (or chase) your loss.

[Three]

In the long run you will earn a certain percentage for each bet (or the total of all the bets if you like) you make with an advantage at each true count. You will lose some and win some along the way. Sometimes the wins and losses come in groups causing positive and negative variance. You don't walk away from a monster count because you lost $4K in that shoe. You are adding EV on each hand. Just because the losses have clumped, in the long run your bets at that TC will still approach expectation. Apparently this very foundation on which card counting is based is lost on some when they don't understand the building EV concept. Your wins and losses will interact allow the way resulting in a steady build of your BR as well as wild swings both up and down but each bet you place builds long run EV. That is how card counting works. That is why the big loss really has no meaning other than the EV you have banked by making the bets. Ploppies worry about runs of good and bad luck. The AP just plugs away making +EV bets regardless of the results. He knows in the long run the EV will be there for each bet he makes whether he wins or losses that bet or losses 20 bets in a row.

[RS]

I'm not saying to walk away from a monster count...just saying it's silly, in my opinion, to be happy about making a bunch of +EV, while the true result is minus a few thousand. What makes the most sense is what luppis said, about doing the best you can do and being happy about it, but getting 'screwed' on things that are out of your control....as well as Tthree saying the thing about losses being clumped together.

[sagefr0g]

So, I've read people post things like, "Even though I lost $4,000, I'm still happy because I made $250 in EV." or some other numbers in there, as if the actual result doesn't matter, but only the EV matters. If your EV is $250/hour, then it's going to take you what, 16 hours to make back that loss of $4,000, right? It's not like the next 1 hour session you're going to win $4,500 (making back the 4k you lost, then adding two 250's of your EV). It seems like even card counters and APs believe in the whole "being due" stuff, as if the past has any correlation (or inverse correlation) for the future.

well it might be you'd have some hours to make up the four grand loss, most likely if you've only just begun your playing career, sorta thing, but then again it might not be either. if you have a 'significant' amount of play under your belt, it could well be you was $40,000 , $14,000 , $8,000 , $4,000 or whatever above ev result wise for all of your past play. in a case like that, nothing to make up really, ev-wise, sorta thing.
i dunno about this 'being due' stuff, but there is a sense of where one is likely to be as N0 approaches or if it's long past, sorta thing.

[lurppis]

In the long run you will earn a certain percentage for each bet (or the total of all the bets if you like) you make with an advantage at each true count. You will lose some and win some along the way. Sometimes the wins and losses come in groups causing positive and negative variance. You don't walk away from a monster count because you lost $4K in that shoe. You are adding EV on each hand. Just because the losses have clumped, in the long run your bets at that TC will still approach expectation. Apparently this very foundation on which card counting is based is lost on some when they don't understand the building EV concept. Your wins and losses will interact allow the way resulting in a steady build of your BR as well as wild swings both up and down but each bet you place builds long run EV. That is how card counting works. That is why the big loss really has no meaning other than the EV you have banked by making the bets. Ploppies worry about runs of good and bad luck. The AP just plugs away making +EV bets regardless of the results. He knows in the long run the EV will be there for each bet he makes whether he wins or losses that bet or losses 20 bets in a row.

The fallacy RollingStoned is talking about appears in your post in the form of the word "banked". A losing session is not a useful result (except perhaps for tangential reasons, like scouting, or practice), no matter what its EV was, and you can't take it to the bank. What you can do is celebrate the fact that you gave yourself a good chance of making money, and focus on that so that you remember to do the same thing again. In other words, sure, be happy, but don't call it a win when it's not. If you lose $100, your expected bankroll at the end of a fixed period of time is actually $100 lower. Don't expect to literally catch up with your pre-calculated EV - that would be a form of the gambler's fallacy.

[BJmath]

I consider it more of a failure if the operation was successful, but the patient died.

[Three]

I never called it a win Lurpis. I merely understand that we play for the long run. In the long run I will win a percentage of the total of bets made at each advantage TC. You will win and loss many along the way. When the losses clump you have a losing session but the bets you made add to that total that you will get a percentage of. So in effect by making those losing bets in the long run you have upped your total and hence your win. I am the last to celebrate a loss but I do understand that it adds to the long term total bet at that TC and thus its long term return. Like I said this is the cornerstone on which counting is built. Making repeated bets that each you will most likely lose but making bigger bets when you are most likely to get blackjacks and more and better splits and doubles.

Paradoxically this doubling and splitting more often with bigger bets out can get costly in the short run. In the long run these bets made at any big TC will include losing streaks. Having a losing streak doesn't make a winning streak due but it is normal in the course of getting to the long run. If you can't figure out getting the opportunity to make those bets at the right time is your goal and the math will win against the runs in the long run you are psychologically going to have a rough go of it in this business. Letting the losses get into your head IS likely to actually cost you EV as you steam or become to timid when betting or making playing decisions. Just be happy you got the opportunity to put those big bets out and do it as the math indicates. In the long run each bet works as a team with all other bets made at that TC to give you your long term result. Don't sweat the short run. The math you use to gain an edge is about the long run. If you have trouble understanding that you will have a tougher time dealing with the swings.

[sagefr0g]

no pain, no gain, what doesn't kill me makes me stronger.
whatever, again there is something to attacking with an advantage a situation that is normalized. in such situations N-zero means something. it means essentially the two faces of luck will cancel and you'll be left with accumulated ev. Rome wasn't built in a day, same goes with seeing what you get for getting in a lot of plus ev plays.
painful as loss's are looking for the bright side of things does help. same goes for wins, the exhilaration of it, realize the not so pretty stuff can and will happen.
often there really is two sides to every story, so the real story, understanding that is a subtle mystery.
just don't sell your self short because of what happened, consider what else might happen.

[blackjack avenger]

Can See Examples:
Look at a 3SD range for
1, 10, 100, 1,000 and 10,000 hrs.
The more hrs one puts in the more likely they are to be ahead.

[KJ]

I don't know about being happy with a $4000 loss, but I am one who definitely focuses on racking up the EV. The $4000 loss or wins are just short term fluctuation. Both are going to happen and happen frequently and have little significance. I'll say that again, short term wins or losses just have little meaning. This game is about long-term results. Once you play enough those short-term wins and losses will all even out and your results will line up with the EV that you have racked up, so yes that is what is important.

And, yes, I am one of those players that you are talking about. While I am not happy about a $4000 loss, I still consider it a very successful day, if I played well, and racked up as much EV as I can. If I play 300 rounds, racking up $250 in EV and loss $4000, while playing well, and drawing little heat that can effect my longevity, then yes it was a very successful day. On the other hand, I have had days that I won big chunks of money, but know that I didn't play particularly well and maybe played too long, or maybe every place seemed to be crowded and I didn't rack up much EV, or worse case scenario for me, my play drew a lot of attention. Even if I won several thousand dollars, a day like this, I would not consider a success.

Bottom, line is this game is about long-term results. The sooner you start thinking long-term, the better you will be. So no, I am would not be 'happy' about a $4000 loss, but that doesn't define my day. It's just part of doing business.

[KJ]

I don't think I expressed myself all that clearly in the previous post, so I am going to try a different path. A typical day for me would be to play 300 rounds, which is worth about $250 in EV (I average just about 80 cents a round for all games that I play). So at the end of the year, when I take 300 of these typical days and add them all up, I will have played 90,000 rounds and racked up $75 grand in EV. And by that time, (end of year), as we approach long-term (I am not going to get into a debate over exactly what is long-term and meaningful results), but as I approach long-term, at the end of the year and 90,000 rounds of play, my total EV for the year, $75,000 and my actual results will come pretty close together. Maybe I win 85 grand, maybe I win 65 grand, but they will be reasonably close. Therefore the value of that single day, where I played 300 rounds and racked up $250 in EV, is $250. It is $250 regardless of whether I actually won $4000 or lost $4000.

And if you don't think this is true, then try going out and spending your $4000 win as soon as you get it. I can guarantee you will be broke in no time at all. As soon as the pendulum swings back the other way. That $4000 win is really only worth The EV that you played to get it, just as a $4000 loss is really worth the EV that you played.