Losing stinks
It happens
Money lost is gone
Going forward you face the same EV and variance.
I'm in the exact same group with KJ here. I really couldn't care about the outcome -- other than that a loss means I just need to wait longer for my payday. I'm happy or upset with my performance at the table. I'm past the point where I might doubt whether what I'm doing actually works. I've simmed and played enough to know. I've had a few times I've won big and was quite unhappy with my performance. You could think you were "lucky" and that I won despite playing badly. But most likely I could have won bigger if I had played correctly and I'll feel the effect once negative variance occurs. The same line of thinking also works in reverse.
One should understand that is real money, not chips. The casino wants you to not think of money. Yet, .notice they talk in money! "$200 buy in" etc. Money is how we keep track. One spends money, not EV. By not believing its money is how one can be tricked into overbetting.
Now here is the secret:
That 4g is gone. Do you have the discipline and fortitude to continue to play correctly?
Of course that 4g is real and gone because your ROR is higher and your net worth is less.
As long as you think in terms of EV you don't have to worry about steaming or becoming timid. You logged a great opportunity and that is what you are there for. You are going to have positive and negative variance. That is expected. It's all about getting in the hands at the high TCs with the big bets. If you do and lose it comes with the territory. Don't sweat it. If you lose $4K betting at a disadvantage the whole time you have something to be concerned about.
- First off, I'm just playing devil's advocate...sort of. I see that short-term negative/positive fluctuations will occur...but we also have to remember that a 4k loss, playing at 250/hour EV, means we have another 16 hours to make up for that loss.
- If you win 4k in one hour, where your EV was 250/hour, what if you spend 3,750$? Or, on the other hand, what if for every 1 hour you play, you take out $250 from your BR and spend it, whether you lose or win that day. you'd be taking out your EV after every session....so in the long run, your BR will stay the same (at least, it's expected to stay the same), assuming your BR is large enough so you don't hit ruin. is this what "professional" APs do? Maybe not after every session or every hour....but say after a month you played 50 hours @ $250/hour, you'd take 12,500 per month for expenses and all that?
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
X2Originally Posted by White Guy
I don't think these guys understand the long run that their play is based on. You need to be able to not sweat the big losses and trust the math. The losses happen along the way and are part of the whole that averages to your expectation. Just understand that and don't let the losses bother you.
2 Sundays ago I posted my greatest ever 1 hour loss: it was big. But as I walked towards the car, I had a strange feeling of ecstasy; I think, from several new techniques coming into play, and feeling that I had played well at a big count. Here's some: that dealer gave great penetration, and I had remembered him from before; and although he was replaced mid-shoe, I was so grateful at the end when extra hands came out at the high count. And there was the extremely high count. And the table almost emptied; and that led to playing 2 hands: if only I'd remembered to play each hand at different amounts, but I didn't - just played each at 67% of my highest bet. And I joked some, at the table, during the horrible run, and saw the dealer react so gratefully to not being yelled at or blamed. I worried that my count might have been off, as it was so high, and worried later at the loss, a little, and worried about why I felt so great after the maximum loss I'd ever incurred, that it was not healthy. It knocked my hourly earnings to minimum wage: but, here's more good, news, they're talking about raising the minimum wage so that will help me earn more at the tables. The last line's not serious.
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