For Cacarulo

[aceside]

The most important factor for me is being able to play solo.

[aceside]

Green Chip: Card Counting
Ace Side Count Methods for playing insurance

Posted By: Cacarulo on 21 May 01, 2:10 pm
Hi,
I don't like much the method of adjusting the RC by counting the excess or deficiency of aces. A better and more accurate method for me has to do with the use of unbalanced counts although this is not new. Let me explain the idea with two different methods:
Hi-Lo values the ace as "-1" which is no good for insurance. The value that correlates best for insurance decisions is "+1" but even with a value of "0" you will have a good choice with less mental effort.
a) Hi-Lo = -1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 0 0 -1

b) Hi-Lo + Ace = 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 0 0 -1

c) Hi-Lo + 2*Ace = +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 0 0 -1

Let's call method #1 to "Hi-Lo + Ace" and method #2 to "Hi-Lo + 2*Ace".
As I said method #2 is the most precise but there's not much difference with method #1. Let's see what happens with the correlations of these counts:
Correlations
+---------------+---------------+
| Method #1 | Method #2 |
+---------------+---------------+---------------+
| Hi-Lo | Hi-Lo + Ace | Hi-Lo + 2*Ace |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+

| 1D | 0.788535 | 0.871672 | 0.890334 |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+

| 2D | 0.774058 | 0.869093 | 0.890604 |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+

| 4D | 0.767023 | 0.867827 | 0.890738 |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+

| 6D | 0.764706 | 0.867409 | 0.890782 |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+

| 8D | 0.763554 | 0.867201 | 0.890804 |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+
Now, for using these counts you will need some indices that of course will be different than the ones used in Hi-Lo without a side count of aces:
Indices
+---------------+---------------+
| Method #1 | Method #2 |
+---------------+---------------+---------------+
| Hi-Lo | Hi-Lo + Ace | Hi-Lo + 2*Ace |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+

| 1D | 1.416667 | -1.969697 | -5.005747 |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+

| 2D | 2.375000 | -1.600601 | -5.104520 |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+

| 4D | 2.854167 | -1.418535 | -5.152661 |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+

| 6D | 3.013889 | -1.358209 | -5.168529 |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+

| 8D | 3.093750 | -1.328113 | -5.176430 |

+----+---------------+---------------+---------------+
The last thing you need to know is how to use these indices but first you will need to keep a secondary count of aces as follows:
+---------------+-------------------+
| Method #1 | Method #2 |
+---------------+-------------------+
| Hi-Lo + Ace | Hi-Lo + 2*Ace |

+----+---------------+-------------------+

| 1D | 4 - #A(seen) | 8 - 2 * #A(seen) |

+----+---------------+-------------------+

| 2D | 8 - #A(seen) | 16 - 2 * #A(seen) |

+----+---------------+-------------------+

| 4D | 16 - #A(seen) | 32 - 2 * #A(seen) |

+----+---------------+-------------------+

| 6D | 24 - #A(seen) | 48 - 2 * #A(seen) |

+----+---------------+-------------------+

| 8D | 32 - #A(seen) | 64 - 2 * #A(seen) |

+----+---------------+-------------------+

If we use method #1 we will buy insurance if

TC (#1) = [ RC (Hi-Lo) - RC (#1) ] / DR >= index (#1)

If we use method #2 we will buy insurance if

TC (#2) = [ RC (Hi-Lo) - RC (#2) ] / DR >= index (#2)
Suppose we decided to use method #2 in a 2D game. There's one deck remaining (DR), Hi-Lo RC is +3 and we have seen 3 aces. Should we buy insurance?
RC (#2) = 16 - 2 * 3 = 10

TC (#2) = (3 - 10) / 1 = -7

Index (#2) = -5.104520
So -7 is not >= -5.104520. Hence, we don't buy insurance.
If we used method #1 we would have:
RC (#1) = 8 - 3 = 5

TC (#1) = (3 - 5) / 1 = -2

Index (#1) = -1.600601
-2 is not >= -1.600601. Thus, we don't buy.
Notice that if we did not use an ace side count we would incorrectly buy insurance since Hi-Lo TC (+3) >= 2.375000.
Sincerely,

Cacarulo

For 2-deck games, I use the RC as the insurance indicator and the betting measure. Because the RC varies so violently with the cards remaining, you will not have any time to calculate the TC at all. I just hope you guy can post some more info about HiLo+ASC specifically on these 2-deck games. KC has done some work and I hope he continues on.