Question for Don: How much should you bet?

[Mr. Ed]

Ok. Let me know when you determine the mathematically correct values, and what the parameters are. Thanks.

[Mr. Ed]

Here are the details:
It’s the last hand of the shoe. The TC is +5. I have two bets at 10 units each. It’s an 8 deck shoe. DAS, ls, H17. I do not split 10’s. I would like a 99.0% chance of having enough units to split, resplit, double…as needed. (I.e. a 1% chance of not having enough)

How many units do I need in reserve? 20, 30, 40,… (1/3, 1/4, 1/5,…)?

[aceside]

I don’t know what you are talking about, but you are not supposed to count 8-desks at all. It is an extremely rare event to have a TC=+5 at the last hand of an 8-deck shoe. Just neglect it. In addition, what really matters is the number of cards behind the cut card.

[ShipTheCookies]

I don’t know what you are talking about, but you are not supposed to count 8-desks at all. It is an extremely rare event to have a TC=+5 at the last hand of an 8-deck shoe. Just neglect it. In addition, what really matters is the number of cards behind the cut card.

Are f'ing kidding???? I've had TC's a couple of times well into the 30's, (YES, 30's), on a deeply cut 8 deck game. Anomalies DO happen occasionally.

[aceside]

In my AP life, I only had one instance of RC=-29 at the last hand of an 8-deck shoe, but there were almost 2 decks behind the cut card. For hand shuffled shoes, it’s a different story.

[Mr. Ed]

I don’t know what you are talking about, but you are not supposed to count 8-desks at all. It is an extremely rare event to have a TC=+5 at the last hand of an 8-deck shoe. Just neglect it. In addition, what really matters is the number of cards behind the cut card.

By sentence:
Incorrect.
If you think it is “extremely rare” that today is Thursday, then you are correct.
Bad advice - don’t neglect high TCs - bet more.
Correct - the fewer cards behind the cut card, the more often you have TC >= +5 at the end of the shoe.

[Mr. Ed]

In my AP life, I only had one instance of RC=-29 at the last hand of an 8-deck shoe, but there were almost 2 decks behind the cut card. For hand shuffled shoes, it’s a different story.

-29?!? Why did you even see that? By the time it gets to -2, I am only at the table to “sit out a hand”. By -4 I am ALWAYS gone.

[aceside]

In that shoe, I was continuously winning more than 26 rounds. That was my record.

[Mr. Ed]

Hehehe - sometimes in negative counts, I “play until I lose a hand”. If I win 26 in a row, a -29TC may yet be in my future.????

[aceside]

If I had betted martingale in that shoe, I would have become a millionaire today and forgotten this site.

[21forme]

If I had betted martingale in that shoe, I would have become a millionaire today and forgotten this site.

You took a short vacation from here and came right back as your old self being stupid and always wrong. Please try it. We'd love you to forget this site.

[DSchles]

Here are the details:
It’s the last hand of the shoe. The TC is +5. I have two bets at 10 units each. It’s an 8 deck shoe. DAS, ls, H17. I do not split 10’s. I would like a 99.0% chance of having enough units to split, resplit, double…as needed. (I.e. a 1% chance of not having enough)

How many units do I need in reserve? 20, 30, 40,… (1/3, 1/4, 1/5,…)?

Actually, your 99% requirement is simply arbitrary. If you'll permit me to rephrase your question, what you really want to ask is: I want to bet 20 units for this last hand, and I want to maximize my e.v. for the hand. How should I bet? Since it's the very last hand of the shoe, you see how utterly ridiculous it is to say that you should need six times the bet. That would be a) insane and b) utterly wrong. Off the top of my head, my guess would be that you wouldn't need more than the 20 units (to be bet on one hand), but again, I'm not sure.

We double one hand out of 10 and split one out of 50. At high counts, those numbers would drop even more, I imagine, because of the smaller probability of getting small cards to comprise the split or to get the cards needed to comprise the double total. Also, there is the higher probability of a dealer upcard of ten.

Don

[Mr. Ed]

I don’t think I understand you - it sounds like now you are recommending I bet my last 20 units on one hand, instead of two hands of 10, and I don’t need any reserve for doubling or splitting, because the chance of doubling is less than 1 in 10, and the chance of splitting is less than 1 in 50.

Nope. If I only have the 20 units left in my wallet, I’m going home. I will come back another day. (But this has never come close during my last hundred sessions)