Sidebet Variance

[20 to 1 Spread]

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I've logged 52.5 hours of LL (lucky lucky 678), this particular casino has a very unique and strange pay structure. With that being said, my actual EV should be a bit higher than the sim because I did not account for table-max-bets which I would put in from time to time.

Even when I practice on CVBJ, I feel like all I do is lose like $300-500/hour. When I was working with a partner, sharing 4-5 betting spots, and just having the main game as well, it felt way smoother than this (obviously because our EV was significantly higher). Flat betting main (losing) and hoping to bink with LL feels very rough. I'm starting to doubt if this kind of variance is worth the winrate, when I could just play DD and crush with a faster N0.

I've turned a winning 2 months playing DD 6-1 spread into a heavily losing month with pure lucky-lucky flat betting main strategy!!

Every time, I just get suited 67 and keep missing the 8. Day after day, after day.

Currently almost down 80 max-bet-units of LL straight in the 52.5 hours. Am I supposed to just keep swinging downwards, until I bink the suited 678 for like $5-10K?

Should I expect to not be surprised that I could keep losing like another 200-300 hours, cus we're still so far from reaching N0?

Thoughts on the situation?

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In case someone wondering why I'm doing this - heat reasons. I can put in like 5-6 hours of this game at this casino. So if I could truly realize $600/day worth of EV, that'd be great.

[Norm]

Well, LL does have a high variance.

[PitBoss321]

Unfortunately, that's how lucky lucky is gonna work. Think about what cards you're counting. You're waiting for a 30 to 1 payout or better, it's gonna be rare. I've lost 20 units in a session counting LL.

[Norm]

Yeah, that's why I gave the warning in the last chart at: https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjacksidebet1.htm

[20 to 1 Spread]

I guess my initial assumption of variance was very off the mark; I did not think I could be down almost 100 LL bets right out the gate like this.

What worries me now is, I need to hit a series of 30-1 binks, or get super lucky with a 100-1 suited, just to break even!
Something about this feels way worse than just playing main game, I'm not sure what it is. It feels like I need to get "more lucky" than just playing stock standard 4-1 spread DD.

Mistakes were made attacking this with a main game flat bet. Didn't realize I signed up for this.
(Funny enough, I'm still getting crushed in CVBJ using the same LL strat).

Anyone has any experience with LL history? How long did it take you to get ahead? Or just ran hot in the beginning etc? Or got buried? Love to know!