Colored blackjack side bet

[Fangio]

Hi all, I'd like to ask experts if this side bet could be mathematically profitable.
Basically it consists of betting to get a blackjack of the same colour, for example Ace of Hearts+King of Diamonds and is paid 35 to 1.
You play with 6 decks and you can bet 5 or 10€ at tables with minimum bet of 10€, and 10 or 20€ at tables with minimum bet of 20€.
I tried to do some calculations and knowing that the odds of getting a blackjack are about 4.74% (1/21 hands) and that the odds of getting a blackjack of the same colour are 2.37% (1/42 hands), I assumed a scenario like this:

- 2 decks played (so 4 decks left)
- 4 aces have been dealt (so still 20 aces to play, therefore 5 aces per deck)
- 28 tens have been dealt (so still 68 tens to play)

Essentially we are at a TC=2 with hi-lo system.

Applying the formula to find the probability of getting a blackjack we yields this:
F=(10s_left/cards_to_play)*[Aces_left/(cards_to_play-1)]+
(Aces_left/cards_to_play)*[10s_left/(cards_to_play-1)]= 6.31%

So, in this condition we would get a blackjack every 16 hands and a coloured blackjack every 32 hands, so would be advantageous since it pays 35 to 1.

Assuming then the same proportion of aces at a TC=7 we would be at 8.17% (one coloured blackjack every 25 hands).

Looking at this it seems a mathematically advantageous bet in certain situations, or maybe I have not considered some variable? What do you think?

Thanks to discuss

[Marvin]

It's very beatable. You need to use a specialized count. I'm not going to discuss it further on the free/public message board.

[PitBoss321]

Coloured BJ.jpg

Would this be accurate? It's giving me wonky results.

[Norm]

You should use the Variable, not fixed field for the payoff. Also, you are betting at all counts.