Loss Rebate Very basic Strategy and some questions

[Goatlife]

Why would anybody do this. So to bet 10k a hand as a unit, playing the bj game. You need a 10,000,0000 bankroll.

I doubt any casino would let you play this 5 days a week straight every week and not restart the next day if you did this a lot. So let’s say you fly to play on weekend only play 2 nights. Ev is 10k a day so 20k a weekend. Not bad right? If you never took a weekend off you would make 1,040,000. But here’s the thing , you need 10 million of capital to do this. Stock market averages 9-10 a year. You can defer your gains until you sell the securities and even at the top bracket your paying a favorable long term cap gains rate and whatever your state taxes are. The 1,040,000 you make is taxed a higher rate of ordinary income and in most metro areas your going to keep around 50 percent of that income due to taxes.

Most likely this is international game. So flying every weekend wouldn’t work. But you can make one long week trip a month and get the same hours in. Also, some international aps don’t have to pay tax on gambling wins if they don’t live in USA.

This is why professional gambling sounds great on paper, but it’s really shitty logistically if you have the skills and brains to run a business.

[notapro]

You are exactly correct in your use and interpretation of my spreadsheet. We are assuming the person plays this loss rebate multiple times, hence the need for a large bankroll.

You are also right about the increasing rebate % weirdness. The higher the rebate %, the higher the quit points, the longer you'll play and the more bankroll you will need to play. But the more you play, the higher the chance that you hit the bottom loss-quit rather than the win-quit.

It's also important to remember that this uses the CLT, which works great for symmetric distributions over lots of trials, but is not so good over short durations and very skewed distributions. That's why these theorems are not the best trick to use for something like video poker, with potentially huge payouts, though the results are still in the ballpark. Chances are you will blow way past your quit-win on your winning days. For some games, simulations work best if you want to be super accurate.

Thank you for the explanation, I really appreciate it