Cvdata application

**DSchles** · 03-11-2022, 09:41 AM

OK, here's a direct answer for insurance: The Hi-Lo insurance bet at shoe games has an index of +3. In that interval (+3 to +4, floored), your edge is about 0.5%. As insurance edge is linear, each successive true count is worth about 2.2% more. So, for example, at +9, your edge is a little less than 14%.

Don

**aceside** · 03-11-2022, 11:43 AM

Wonderful! With this number, we will be able to find the player’s edge gain from additional naturals at true counts of +1 or more.

**DSchles** · 03-11-2022, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by aceside

Wonderful! With this number, we will be able to find the player’s edge gain from additional naturals at true counts of +1 or more.

And when you have this information, what do you plan to do with it?

Don

**aceside** · 03-12-2022, 03:28 AM

I am still working on the math part. To go through the math, I will use the CVData simulation result on a 6-deck 75%-penetration game, as posted by Dog Hand in this forum.

The probability of a dealer's ace upcard as a function of true count (TC) is
P_a=0.00195xTC+0.077

At TC=+3.5, P_a=0.0838, Insurance EV=1.10%; therefore, the player's edge gain from insurance is
P_a x0.5 xEV=0.0838 x0.5 x1.10%=0.046%.

At TC=+6.5, P_a=0.0897, Insurance EV=7.64%; therefore, the player's edge gain from insurance is
P_bj x0.5 xEV=0.0897 x0.5 x7.64%=0.34%.

The insurance EV numbers of 1.10% and 7.64% are my crude estimates, but their increment rate matches very well to your value of 2.2% per TC. Please check.

* Note, I updated these gain values after noticing no helpful comments.

**aceside** · 03-15-2022, 07:29 AM

With the above numbers, let me calculate the edge portion of blackjack insurance. From Norm’s charts on Blackjackincolor.com, we find the player’s advantage at TC=+6.5 is 4%, for a 6-deck (s17, DAS, LS 4.8/6 pen) game. This means that the max possible edge portion of insurance is about 0.34%/4%=8.5%. Not very much!

**DSchles** · 03-15-2022, 08:22 AM

When you tell me why we should possibly care, perhaps I will comment further.

Don

**aceside** · 03-15-2022, 06:15 PM

The reason is becoming clearer. I will use the edge gain from insurance as a unit to measure other edge gains from other blackjack decisions. The first thing for me to calculate is the 16 vs 10 surrender decision.

**G Man** · 03-16-2022, 05:14 AM

Originally Posted by aceside

The reason is becoming clearer. I will use the edge gain from insurance as a unit to measure other edge gains from other blackjack decisions. The first thing for me to calculate is the 16 vs 10 surrender decision.

I hear noise.

**aceside** · 03-16-2022, 06:46 AM

You are correct! The first thing to calculate is the edge gain portion from the 16vs10 hit/stand decision. The second thing to calculate is the edge gain from additional blackjacks from wonging.

**Norm** · 03-16-2022, 06:48 AM

None of this makes any sense.

**aceside** · 03-16-2022, 06:52 AM

That’s a bold statement. You need to show your math here to prove yourself.

**aceside** · 03-16-2022, 07:13 AM

Originally Posted by aceside

With the above numbers, let me calculate the edge portion of blackjack insurance. From Norm’s charts on Blackjackincolor.com, we find the player’s advantage at TC=+6.5 is 4%, for a 6-deck (s17, DAS, LS 4.8/6 pen) game. This means that the max possible edge portion of insurance is about 0.34%/4%=8.5%. Not very much!

Based on my math, I got the maximum edge portion of insurance is 8.5% at TC=+6.5; however, this number is way way off from Wizard’s estimate on his website. He shows the benefit of insurance is 34%. Can somebody help explain?