Bankroll/RoR math

[PitBoss321]

I'm using Don's risk of ruin/bankroll formula while putting together a play, and I want to make sure I'm combining bets/plays correctly.

I'm trying to combine two different bets and find a combined bankroll requirement. As an example, let's say I was running the math on baccarat and the Dragon 7. With a $100 bet, ev of $74, SD of $1,990. 1% ror bankroll comes out to $123,223.
But if I say I have to bet banker as well, $10 bet for easy math, ev of -$10.40, SD of $93.

Can I combine the ev and variance and run the math based on the combined numbers? In this case, $63.60, SD $1,992.17, 1% bankroll $143,685.

[DSchles]

I'm using Don's risk of ruin/bankroll formula while putting together a play, and I want to make sure I'm combining bets/plays correctly.

I'm trying to combine two different bets and find a combined bankroll requirement. As an example, let's say I was running the math on baccarat and the Dragon 7. With a $100 bet, ev of $74, SD of $1,990. 1% ror bankroll comes out to $123,223.
But if I say I have to bet banker as well, $10 bet for easy math, ev of -$10.40, SD of $93.

Can I combine the ev and variance and run the math based on the combined numbers? In this case, $63.60, SD $1,992.17, 1% bankroll $143,685.

If the two bets are not completely independent of each other, then you can't add the variances, because there can be covariance as there is for two simultaneous blackjack bets against the same dealer upcard. I don't know the Dragon 7, so you'll have to furnish the details.

Don

[PitBoss321]

Luckily baccarat won't have much covariance with anything (I'm guessing, based on how very uncountable it is).
https://www.888casino.com/blog/bacca...nting-update-1

The dragon 7 is a baccarat side bet that pays if the banker side wins with a 3 card total of 7.

If the two bets are independent, will they add simply, like in my example?

[DSchles]

If the two bets are independent, will they add simply, like in my example?

Yes.

Don

[stopgambling]

how did you arrived with a Sd of $1990?

[Cacarulo]

I'm using Don's risk of ruin/bankroll formula while putting together a play, and I want to make sure I'm combining bets/plays correctly.

I'm trying to combine two different bets and find a combined bankroll requirement. As an example, let's say I was running the math on baccarat and the Dragon 7. With a $100 bet, ev of $74, SD of $1,990. 1% ror bankroll comes out to $123,223.
But if I say I have to bet banker as well, $10 bet for easy math, ev of -$10.40, SD of $93.

Can I combine the ev and variance and run the math based on the combined numbers? In this case, $63.60, SD $1,992.17, 1% bankroll $143,685.

It's hard for me to understand where the Dragon 7 numbers in your example came from, are they invented or did you get them from a website?
Obviously it is understood that you are counting the Dragon 7 bet and that it is not allowed to bet it on its own if you do not bet simultaneously on another (player, banker or tie).
On the other hand, since they are independent bets, it is possible to add the variances as Don very well explained.
However, instead of accompanying the Dragon 7 bet with the banker bet, it is preferable to do so with the player bet. Just when Dragon 7's expected value turns positive, at that point player is preferable to banker.

Hope this helps,

Sincerely,
Cac

[PitBoss321]

I got the Dragon numbers from EJ https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-...arat-side-bets

However, instead of accompanying the Dragon 7 bet with the banker bet, it is preferable to do so with the player bet. Just when Dragon 7's expected value turns positive, at that point player is preferable to banker.

Hope this helps,

Sincerely,
Cac

My understanding was that counting banker/player is functionally useless, as the changes in ev are so tiny. Will a plus-ev dragon count actually move the needle significantly on banker/player?

[Cacarulo]

I got the Dragon numbers from EJ https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-...arat-side-bets



My understanding was that counting banker/player is functionally useless, as the changes in ev are so tiny. Will a plus-ev dragon count actually move the needle significantly on banker/player?

I can't get into that page.

You're not counting the Banker/Player but instead you're counting the Dragon 7 bet. The thing is that the level-2 count used for the Dragon can be used for the banker/player as well. At a TC of +4 the Dragon 7 has positive EV but also the player becomes better than the banker (although both have negative EVs).

Sincerely,
Cac