How Would You Play This Promotion

[21forme]

If that's the case, find another high odds bet. Roulette?

You are not looking for long-term EV. This is a one shot deal where you're looking to hit a longshot, then "leave." It's like playing a BJ tournament vs regular BJ. Totally different strategy.

A related example - I had a $1K loss rebate for a new card signup at a Vegas casino (Palms, I think, but maybe not. It was about 10 years ago.) I found a $100 slot machine. On my third spin, I hit a 5K jackpot. Play over. No loss rebate.

[Midwest Player]

I chickened out and just bet the pass line on the rebate. Even then I didn't play it as planned. My plan was to split the bet into two $100 bets, but I lost the first bet and then bet $200 on the next bet with a potential loss on the promotion. I won the $200 bet and then quit a $100 ahead.

I noticed DraftKings craps pays 33:1 on box cars not 30:1. I played in demo mode and it took 19 times to roll a 12.

[DSchles]

I chickened out and just bet the pass line on the rebate. Even then I didn't play it as planned. My plan was to split the bet into two $100 bets, but I lost the first bet and then bet $200 on the next bet with a potential loss on the promotion. I won the $200 bet and then quit a $100 ahead.

I noticed DraftKings craps pays 33:1 on box cars not 30:1. I played in demo mode and it took 19 times to roll a 12.

You were lucky. Should take 25 rolls.

Don

[aceside]

You were lucky. Should take 25 rolls.

Don

It appears you used the shortcut calculation of 36xLn2=25; however, if we consider the probability=1/36, wouldn’t the average number of rolls needed for a “snake eye” to occur be 1/probability=36?

Why is there a discrepancy between these two calculations?

[DSchles]

Why is there a discrepancy between these two calculations?

36 is the mean; 25 is the median. If you were making an over/under number for how long it would take to roll 6-6, the proper number would be 25. If you were getting paid $1 for how long it would take to roll 6-6, and you had to pay for that privilege, the right price would be $36. Do you understand the difference?

Don

[aceside]

36 is the mean; 25 is the median. If you were making an over/under number for how long it would take to roll 6-6, the proper number would be 25. If you were getting paid $1 for how long it would take to roll 6-6, and you had to pay for that privilege, the right price would be $36. Do you understand the difference?

Don

Let me do some exercise to understand this.
If we bet on taking 18 rolls to get a 6-6, then the success probability=1-(35/36)^18=0.398, and thus the payout=(0.5/0.398):1= 1.26:1.
If we bet on taking 25 rolls to get a 6-6, then the success probability=1-(35/36)^25=0.5, and thus the payout=0.5/0.5= 1:1.
If we bet on taking 36 rolls to get a 6-6, then the success probability=1-(35/36)^36=0.637, and thus the payout=(0.5/0.637):1= 0.78:1.
If we bet on taking 72 rolls to get a 6-6, then the success probability=1-(35/36)^72=0.868, and thus the payout=(0.5/0.868):1= 0.58:1.

Are the odds I made correct?

[DSchles]

Let me do some exercise to understand this.
If we bet on taking 18 rolls to get a 6-6, then the success probability=1-(35/36)^18=0.398, and thus the payout=(0.5/0.398):1= 1.26:1.
If we bet on taking 25 rolls to get a 6-6, then the success probability=1-(35/36)^25=0.5, and thus the payout=0.5/0.5= 1:1.
If we bet on taking 36 rolls to get a 6-6, then the success probability=1-(35/36)^36=0.637, and thus the payout=(0.5/0.637):1= 0.78:1.
If we bet on taking 72 rolls to get a 6-6, then the success probability=1-(35/36)^72=0.868, and thus the payout=(0.5/0.868):1= 0.58:1.

Are the odds I made correct?

Yes. But no need to do a million examples. Once you know the math and the general principle, then you know it for any number of rolls.

Don