How Would You Play This Promotion

[Midwest Player]

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[Marvin]

Max ev is probably to bet it all on 1 snake eyes or box cars roll.

Unless they offer really high odds bets.

[Marvin]

__________


no, I would say bet the entire $200 one time on pass or don't pass - the 2 lowest HA bets in the game

this way you have only exposed yourself to the HA one time (so far)

if you win the bet, walk away - don't try to capture a loss rebate - it's a minus EV game

if you lose and they rebate you - again bet it all on pass or don't pass - and walk away no matter what happens - $200 is the most you can lose if you play this way

don't pass is a very slightly better bet - but not worth concerning yourself about - you can choose whichever of the 2 bets you like best

slightly less than one half of the time you will win $200 - slightly more than one fourth of the time you will lose $200 and slightly less than one fourth of the time you will break even

right Don___________?


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You want the most variance you can get. Even money bets, even though they have a lower house edge, are not the way to play this.

[21forme]

You want the most variance you can get. Even money bets, even though they have a lower house edge, are not the way to play this.

Agree

[aceside]

Agree

I slightly disagree. We want to get the max EV possible, possibly with a greater variance.

[Marvin]

I slightly disagree. We want to get the max EV possible, possibly with a greater variance.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/loss-rebate/

[Marvin]

_____________


I don't at all see how giving up a lot more HA to get more variance is going to help a player

of course, he's not going to be in the long run - but you still have to make the calculations as if you were in the long run

the HA on the hard 10 is 11.11% while the HA on a pass line bet is just 1.41%

in the long run, 1,000 rolls, a player would lose much more betting the hard 10 then betting pass

again, it's not the long run but so what - there is no other way I know of to calculate what is the best bet


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You only make use of the rebate if you lose.

Even money bet situation, fair odds, what's your EV?

30:1 payout situation, 10% house edge, what's your EV?

[aceside]

You only make use of the rebate if you lose.

Even money bet situation, fair odds, what's your EV?

30:1 payout situation, 10% house edge, what's your EV?

If it is a match-play coupon, you bet on a high payout bet for the maximum EV. Gronbog has showed the math here. However, if it is a bonus money you can use without matching with real money, you just bet on an even money bet. Is this correct?

[Marvin]

The OP was asking about a loss rebate.

Regarding match play and other prono chips, it depends on whether you retain the bonus on a win or not and whether you're forced to make even money bets or not.

JG published a PDF on the topic some years ago.

[aceside]

The OP was asking about a loss rebate.

Regarding match play and other prono chips, it depends on whether you retain the bonus on a win or not and whether you're forced to make even money bets or not.

JG published a PDF on the topic some years ago.

This Draftking 100% loss rebate is a lot, but I can't use it at all. I used Caesars and got some easy money. I guess the loss rebate math is very easy. Let us just wait for Gronbog to verify how to play it.

[21forme]

Let us just wait for Gronbog to verify how to play it.

You can wait as long as you want. This has already been done, and Marvin is correct (for the third time, but we all know you are a bit slow).

[aceside]

You can wait as long as you want. This has already been done, and Marvin is correct (for the third time, but we all know you are a bit slow).

But I think there is a problem here. Marvin said to bet all $200 in one bet on the 'snake eyes' payout odds of 30:1. Although this is reasonable for no-limit craps table, it is probably not practical. If you can only bet $10 max on the "snake eye" bet, what is your strategy for this 100% loss rebate? I just read a little into what Wizard says about this, and it seems it involves an optimum expected win money for this thing.

[Marvin]

Yeah, if you can't bet it all at once then it gets a lot more complicated, and you have to sim it to find the optimal stopping point.