The state of BJ (Domestic & Abroad)

[thanks]

This is my first post to the forum so I apologize if this is the wrong section.

Quick introduction on myself (if you don't care skip to the next paragraph for my question)
I am just getting into counting. My current career is in a creative field. I was very lucky to "hit the jackpot" so to speak and 2022 I will most likely be hitting the 6 figure mark with 100% passive income. While I'm very grateful, I was in a supporting role in the project that is netting my the vast majority of that income and it doesn't put me in any better of a position to continue generating income once the money from this project dries up (99.9% of people in my field don't make a fry cook's wage). I've been trying to figure out what's the best way to leverage the free time and excess income I'll be making and based off of my personality (fast learner, quick thinker, deviant personality ) I not only think this is a good idea for me but I regret not committing earlier.

Anyway the reason why I'm posting so early in my journey is to try to gauge the state of the game. From lurking a couple threads I get the feeling that counting is a lot harder than "the golden days" but looking at qfit's "blackjack weather center" (https://www.qfit.com/maps.shtml) it has the US average house edge at a comfortable 0.5%. I was honestly expecting a lot worse as this is the number I've always had in my head for BJ. Is it really as bad as people make it out to be? I really don't care if something is hard. What I worry is that even if I wrestle with the difficulty and perfect my game it will be a waste of time. Do you think I could get anywhere with a bankroll of around 25-30k? Or would I need an investor once I've perfected my game and spent a few hundred hours playing in a casino (this won't be as hard for me as it might be for others)

I know this is a US based board but I'm also incredibly curious about the state of the game abroad. I am a US/CA dual citizen, have no family, am entirely self employed, and would love an excuse to travel. Are there countries where rules like "the old days" in the US are more common? Or is it pretty much the same globally?


I appreciate anybody taking the time to read this and respond. Haven't used a good ole'fashioned forum in quite some time.

[bejammin075]

Blackjack works better as a hobby rather than full time gig. Going full time sucks any joy out of it & you wear out your welcome a lot faster. You have enough bankroll to make a good hourly wage, but make sure you understand how variance & risk of ruin work. You might be able to calculate that in a particular scenario you make $50 an hour, but on any given day that might mean being down or up many thousands of dollars. Don’t think of blackjack as the road to riches. A couple of decisions to make is which count to learn, e.g. Hi Lo (the grand daddy of all counts, a good level 1 balanced count), or something like REKO (an even easier unbalanced level one count) or if you think you might try a level 2 or 3 count for somewhat better results but more difficult to master. Another decision/debate is whether to play as a rated (known) player or whether you refuse to identify yourself to the casino.


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[UNCBear4SJ]

I get the feeling that counting is a lot harder than "the golden days"

Yes

but looking at qfit's "blackjack weather center" (https://www.qfit.com/maps.shtml) it has the US average house edge at a comfortable 0.5%.

Two key points:

• Note the source
• Note the 6:5 ration

The editors at CBJN made the decision some time ago to no longer list 6:5 games, so that influences what you're looking at as to the the state of being for BJ in the US. While the remaining games may have a reasonable edge, the pool of those games is shrinking. What tables remain may have limited availability, or the min/max may be uncomfortable. A personal example: I was on a recent "business trip" to Vegas. One casino that was listed in CBJN as having 3:2 tables did have them installed still but when I asked when they were open I was told by two different pit critters that it was a low priority to remove them but in reality they never opened them any more. At another casino listed as having 3:2 tables, the only 3:2 tables open during 3 separate visits were CSM.

I was honestly expecting a lot worse as this is the number I've always had in my head for BJ. Is it really as bad as people make it out to be?

Yes, given it is increasingly hard to find playable tables at price points that don't automatically bring increased scrutiny and uncomfortable dollar variance, or have max set so it is difficult to achieve your desired average $/hr.

Are there countries where rules like "the old days" in the US are more common? Or is it pretty much the same globally?

I can't speak to that from personal experience.
I would second the sentiment expressed by bejammin075: BJ is a better side hustle or hobby than full-time gig. A significant percentage of my income has come from BJ for many years, but my income is "smoothed" by other sources. I've done it full-time in the past (for up to 8 months at a time) and I'd agree that the grind of the day-to-day is not something to underestimate.
Good luck whatever your decision.

[aceside]

I appreciate anybody taking the time to read this and respond. Haven't used a good ole'fashioned forum in quite some time.

I see you a wise young man with a bright future in this field, and I’d like to have you as my collaborator to achieve both our goals. I am good at blackjack as well as many other casino games. Are you interested in me?

[UncleChoo]

Yes
I was on a recent "business trip" to Vegas. One casino that was listed in CBJN as having 3:2 tables did have them installed still but when I asked when they were open I was told by two different pit critters that it was a low priority to remove them but in reality they never opened them any more. At another casino listed as having 3:2 tables, the only 3:2 tables open during 3 separate visits were CSM.

This is a scary statement.

It really makes me wonder if the game is on the verge of extinction? On the one hand, I would think casinos can earn a lot of revenue from offering beatable games by luring in underskilled or under bankrolled counters. On my last trip visiting the casino I saw a lot of the BJ games replaced with not just 6:5 games but 6:5 games with a mandatory silly side bet with like -5% EV. The sickening thing is that these tables were freaking packed. I almost vomited walking by. It really does make me concerned.

[thanks]

Greatly appreciate the replies everyone! Happy New Years!

While I do think the road ahead of me will be a bit daunting and a grind... I don't really have a better use for my time. I plan to master either Hi-Lo or KO (w/ a true count) and then just grind out as much as I can in the next two years. Before I was an "artist" I was a computer science student at an elite university. Not trying to give myself too much credit... I was a big troublemaker and the academic life wasn't for me but I at the very least I understand variance and risk etc. Whether or not I will be able to stomach variance is a different story that I guess only time will tell. I do have plans for dealing with the mental game.


If there are still APs making a living counting BJ then I know it's possible for me to make a living as well. The only thing I'm worried about is 3:2 tables going extinct before I have time to grind out a couple thousand hours of play time but I think for my personal situation the potential benefits outweigh the risks. I would love to expand into other AP plays as well but I hope I will naturally find opportunities once I start exploring casinos (I've never set foot in a casino because losing my money on purpose has never really interested me)

Also Aceside I appreciate the offer! I really do, but I'm way too early in my career to start teaming or even mentoring under somebody. I would like to master the fundamentals and at least have a proven winning game before I start collaborating. It's just my personality / how I learn most effectively.

[aceside]

Also Aceside I appreciate the offer! I really do, but I'm way too early in my career to start teaming or even mentoring under somebody. I would like to master the fundamentals and at least have a proven winning game before I start collaborating. It's just my personality / how I learn most effectively.

I have no intention of mentoring anybody. I feel you will make a good buddy for me because you have the time. There ain’t any winning games there. You have to create them.

[WABJ11]

As someone who traveled 12-24 times a year before covid, I can tell you 100% that blackjack outside of the US is terrible. There are games here and there way off the beaten path where English isn’t the first language.

But by and large the best games are found in the US.

[Al Rogers]

Yes

Two key points:

• Note the source
• Note the 6:5 ration

The editors at CBJN made the decision some time ago to no longer list 6:5 games, so that influences what you're looking at as to the the state of being for BJ in the US. While the remaining games may have a reasonable edge, the pool of those games is shrinking. What tables remain may have limited availability, or the min/max may be uncomfortable. A personal example: I was on a recent "business trip" to Vegas. One casino that was listed in CBJN as having 3:2 tables did have them installed still but when I asked when they were open I was told by two different pit critters that it was a low priority to remove them but in reality they never opened them any more. At another casino listed as having 3:2 tables, the only 3:2 tables open during 3 separate visits were CSM...

Please post or email me the names of those casinos, so I can double check with our reporters. We always appreciate the opportunity to make corrections/updates.

[Chaconne]

I have been playing full-time these past six years and previously during the 70s and 80s. I find the games to be easier today than decades ago, especially for a full-time professional willing to travel. There are many more games today than "back in the day." Because I like traveling, I find I enjoy full-time play and am not even close to becoming burned out. I know this is a minority position. Everyone is wired differently in this regard.

[bejammin075]

I see you a wise young man with a bright future in this field, and I’d like to have you as my collaborator to achieve both our goals. I am good at blackjack as well as many other casino games. Are you interested in me?

Make sure to let any prospective team mates aware of if & when you read your first book on blackjack.


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[aceside]

Make sure to let any prospective team mates aware of if & when you read your first book on blackjack.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I am aware that there are still a lot of blackjack authors posting on this forum today, so I am not going to reveal whose books I’ve read, but I can disclose this info, the first blackjack book I read is “The world’s best blackjack book” but I felt I was tricked. These authors do not post.

[WABJ11]

I have been playing full-time these past six years and previously during the 70s and 80s. I find the games to be easier today than decades ago, especially for a full-time professional willing to travel. There are many more games today than "back in the day." Because I like traveling, I find I enjoy full-time play and am not even close to becoming burned out. I know this is a minority position. Everyone is wired differently in this regard.

Unfortunately I wasn’t around for the 70’s and 80’s but with the explosion of legal gambling in every state and online betting, bonuses etc… and good blackjack rules being mandated this doesn’t surprise me.

I would still steer clear of Las Vegas as they know what they’re doing and have some of the smartest floor people.