Any Plays to Avoid?

**Mr. Ed** · 12-29-2021, 04:51 PM

So far, the only consensus I see about plays to avoid is Splitting 10s. Taking Insurance seems ok. Standing on 16v10 seems ok. Not essential to parlay bets when increasing. Ok to “take home winnings” when you win a bet then decrease the next bet. Anything else?

**UNCBear4SJ** · 12-29-2021, 09:11 PM

There are circumstances under which splitting 10s is the correct play. Though when it is "correct", one must also consider the future value of the store one is playing in.

**Jack Jackson** · 12-30-2021, 03:37 PM

Originally Posted by Mr. Ed

So far, the only consensus I see about plays to avoid is Splitting 10s. Taking Insurance seems ok. Standing on 16v10 seems ok. Not essential to parlay bets when increasing. Ok to “take home winnings” when you win a bet then decrease the next bet. Anything else?

Alot of Basic Strategist know 90-95% of Basic Strategy, but they still wont Hit A7vX,A so i can only assume this play may stand out if you HIT it..I think its better to misplay some BS plays if you feel your being watched and standing on A7vX would def. make you look like the rest...A few other plays i would def. avoid is doubling anything on A8 and A9...

**Mr. Ed** · 12-30-2021, 10:11 PM

Thank you for the advice. I get funny looks (from the dealer) when I hit A7v 9, 10 or Ace, but I do it anyway because “that’s what the book says”. I should just get a card and show it to the dealer.

In h17 games, BS is double A8v6. Colin Jones in BlackjackApprentice does this very move in some of his free video intros!! This move looks funny to dealers and ploppies. Just like doubling 11vAce.

I thought surveillance would know BS, and would not be alarmed by proper play. On the other hand, I saw a video for casino staff about how to spot a card counter. It said:

1. A Counter plays well (perfect Basic Strategy)
2. A Counter looks at other players’ cards
3. A Counter insures all large bets (but no small ones)
4. A Counter will sometimes stand with 16v10, contrary to Basic Strategy, especially for large bets.

**21forme** · 12-31-2021, 07:09 AM

The cast majority of dealers have no idea how to play correctly. They learn by watching (the bad) players.

**Freightman** · 12-31-2021, 09:35 AM

Originally Posted by 21forme

The cast majority of dealers have no idea how to play correctly. They learn by watching (the bad) players.

And oh how they pause when you signal hit on you’re soft 18 v dealer 9 or 10.

**UncleChoo** · 12-31-2021, 11:21 AM

Originally Posted by Mr. Ed

Thank you for the advice. I get funny looks (from the dealer) when I hit A7v 9, 10 or Ace, but I do it anyway because “that’s what the book says”. I should just get a card and show it to the dealer.

In h17 games, BS is double A8v6. Colin Jones in BlackjackApprentice does this very move in some of his free video intros!! This move looks funny to dealers and ploppies. Just like doubling 11vAce.

I thought surveillance would know BS, and would not be alarmed by proper play. On the other hand, I saw a video for casino staff about how to spot a card counter. It said:

1. A Counter plays well (perfect Basic Strategy)
2. A Counter looks at other players’ cards
3. A Counter insures all large bets (but no small ones)
4. A Counter will sometimes stand with 16v10, contrary to Basic Strategy, especially for large bets.

Hoping someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I was reading a chapter in BJAttack last night and Don says you can actually insure all Blackjacks at very little cost. I think I will start doing this to avoid the giveaway of insuring only large bets. This book as a whole kind of boggles my mind. I never read it cover to cover but rather different chapters like a textbook reference. No matter how many times I read the same chapter I always learn something new (or probably start to understand something better that went way over my head the first read)

**DSchles** · 12-31-2021, 12:34 PM

Originally Posted by UncleChoo

Hoping someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I was reading a chapter in BJAttack last night and Don says you can actually insure all Blackjacks at very little cost. I think I will start doing this to avoid the giveaway of insuring only large bets. This book as a whole kind of boggles my mind. I never read it cover to cover but rather different chapters like a textbook reference. No matter how many times I read the same chapter I always learn something new (or probably start to understand something better that went way over my head the first read)

See page 199. The flat bettor loses 28 cents per $100 bet, or 0.28%. Not sure if that's "very little loss" or not. Only you can decide.

Sorry to boggle your mind!

Don

**UncleChoo** · 12-31-2021, 01:27 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

See page 199. The flat bettor loses 28 cents per $100 bet, or 0.28%. Not sure if that's "very little loss" or not. Only you can decide.

Sorry to boggle your mind!

Don

Thanks, Don! I'm a newcomer as far as trying to learn the deeper theoretical aspects of the game. As I slowly progress through my learning journey I've come to appreciate your work more and more.

**PinkChip** · 12-31-2021, 04:48 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

See page 199. The flat bettor loses 28 cents per $100 bet, or 0.28%. Not sure if that's "very little loss" or not. Only you can decide.

Sorry to boggle your mind!

Don

I currently am on vacation and thus don't have BJA3 at hand, so I cannot look at page 199. Because I have trouble in calculating this cost of 0.28% for insuring all blackjacks.

Let us assume that I bet $100, get a natural and the dealer has an ace up:
- if I refuse insurance, I earn (9*$150 + 4*$0)/13 = $1350/13 = $103.85 on average.
- if I take insurance (Even Money), I earn $100.
So insuring my blackjack costs me $3.85 or 3.85% of my $100 bet, as described in literature.

But this situation arises only in about 1/21 times 1/13 of all hands. Dividing $3.85 by 13 yields $0.296, which is close to the 0.28% mentioned above. But dividing this by 21, I get only $0.014 = 1.4 cents or 0.014% for the costs of insuring all blackjacks. Or did I misinterpret the original question?

**DSchles** · 12-31-2021, 07:06 PM

Originally Posted by PinkChip

Or did I misinterpret the original question?

No, I did! Sorry. I thought it was insure all hands. For insuring just naturals, it is 1.35 cents per $100 bet--a pittance. And, of course, that's for all naturals, including when it's right to do so!

Don

**PinkChip** · 12-31-2021, 09:28 PM

Ah, ok. Many thanks!

**WABJ11** · 01-03-2022, 12:17 AM

One play I try to avoid is doubling A8 v 6 on a H17 game if I know I’m being watched or skill checked. It’s a very small give up, and will reduce variance. You can also do it 50/50 so you look like you’re a little crazy. But this play usually indicates you know what you’re doing.

Another one (which you can’t get away from) I would say is taking insurance late in a DD shoe and standing on 16 v T is an obvious give away. But they are the best EV plays. What I will do a lot of the time is randomly stay on 16 if I have a small bet and feel like I’m being sweated. I also will sometimes take insurance for small amounts, $1-5, when I’m being hawked so it just looks like I’m that guy that usually goes for insurance. These ones are tough to disguise, and you’re giving up a lot of EV by not utilizing them.