6:5 vs 3:2 for Dummies

[Mr. Ed]

Here’s how I explain it….. most people will walk away with a complete and accurate understanding. Let me know your thoughts. Thanks!

At a 6:5 table, you get $120 for your $100 bet. And at the 3:2 table, you get $150. A $20 bonus vs a $50 bonus.

A Blackjack happens one out of 21 hands (really - 16/169=21), but only count 20, because the dealer will push one of your Blackjacks.

So what’s your bonus? $50/20=2.5% at the regular 3:2 table. But a measly $20/20=1.0% at the terrible 6:5 table. The 6:5 table costs you 1.5%!! Typically, Basic Strategy gives the house a small 0.5% advantage, but you pay another 1.5% at the 6:5 table, and the house advantage is increased to 2.0%, which is 4 times worse than the 3:2 table!

At a $10 table, playing heads up 100 hands per hour, you only lose $5/hour at 3:2, but you lose $20/hour at 6:5. Your 5 hour night of “fun” costs you $25 at 3:2, but $100 at 6:5. I don’t know about you, but I have a lot more fun paying $25 for a night of fun (cheaper than a bar!!) than when I lose $100.

[PinkChip]

Third paragraph: The probability is not 16/169 but 8/169 = 1/21 (approximately), since 8*21 = 168.

Fourth paragraph: $50/20 = $2.5, not 2.5% (unless you bet $100 per hand). The same holds for $20/20 = $1, not 1%.

[DSchles]

A Blackjack happens one out of 21 hands (really - 16/169=21), but only count 20, because the dealer will push one of your Blackjacks.

You think the dealer ties your blackjack once every 21 times you get a natural? Think again! If you have blackjack once every 21 hands, and the dealer has a blackajck once every 21 hands, then the two of you will have a natural together once every 21^2 squared hands, or once every 441 hands.

The precise value for a tied natural in the 6-deck game is 0.2167%, or 1 in 461.

Don

[BJGenius007]

Here’s how I explain it….. most people will walk away with a complete and accurate understanding. Let me know your thoughts. Thanks!

At a 6:5 table, you get $120 for your $100 bet. And at the 3:2 table, you get $150. A $20 bonus vs a $50 bonus.

A Blackjack happens one out of 21 hands (really - 16/169=21), but only count 20, because the dealer will push one of your Blackjacks.

So what’s your bonus? $50/20=2.5% at the regular 3:2 table. But a measly $20/20=1.0% at the terrible 6:5 table. The 6:5 table costs you 1.5%!! Typically, Basic Strategy gives the house a small 0.5% advantage, but you pay another 1.5% at the 6:5 table, and the house advantage is increased to 2.0%, which is 4 times worse than the 3:2 table!

At a $10 table, playing heads up 100 hands per hour, you only lose $5/hour at 3:2, but you lose $20/hour at 6:5. Your 5 hour night of “fun” costs you $25 at 3:2, but $100 at 6:5. I don’t know about you, but I have a lot more fun paying $25 for a night of fun (cheaper than a bar!!) than when I lose $100.

Can you choose even money at 6:5 table if player has BJ and dealer up card is Ace?

[PinkChip]

You think the dealer ties your blackjack once every 21 times you get a natural? Think again! If you have blackjack once every 21 hands, and the dealer has a blackajck once every 21 hands, then the two of you will have a natural together once every 21^2 squared hands, or once every 441 hands.

The precise value for a tied natural in the 6-deck game is 0.2167%, or 1 in 461.

Don

Maybe I'm too tired, but isn't that the same?
Out of 441 hands, you have 1/21 * 441 = 21 naturals. In one hand (1/441 of all hands), both you and the dealer have a natural. So one out of your 21 naturals is tied by the dealer. I think this the same as he said.

[Mr. Ed]

Thank you Pinkchip. That is indeed what I said.

I am just trying to “open the black box” and explain why 6:5 is four times worse than 3:2. I am guilty of taking shortcuts (and making one error!) but I think what I said makes sense.

[PinkChip]

To me, your thoughts were basically correct. I calculated this through: Let us assume that the Basic Strategy EV (based upon 3:2) is -0.5%. For an infinite number of decks, the probability of getting an untied natural is 20/441 = 0.04535. You thus lose 0.04535 * 0.3 units = 0.0136 units = 1.36% in EV when playing 6:5 rattert than 3:2, so your overall EV is -1.86% rattert than -0.5%, so the house edge is 3.72 times the original house edge (your factor 4 was quite correct, and somewhat changes due to rules and number of decks).

With 2:1 for a natural, you gain 0.04535 * 0.5 units = 0.227 units = 2.27% in EV over 3:2 rules, resulting in a nice +1.77% overall EV, so flat betting a nice amount is the best strategy, as has been mentioned in other postings.

[PinkChip]

rather than