I have some trouble in understanding the exact meaning of this parameter:
Win Insurance Percentage – When you can see the hole card you can’t lose an Insurance bet. You are in control of the number of bets won. But, if you win every bet you will be very obvious. Set this to the percentage of times that the dealer has an Ace up and you see the Ten in the hole that you feel is reasonable to win.
Let's assume I chose 100 percent percentage of Hole Card seen, so I know the hole card every time.
The question now is how to deal with the insurance bet. For perfect play and in order to maximize EV,
I could make perfect Insurance decisions, that means that everytime the dealer has an Ace up:
- if the hole card is a 10, J, Q, K, I take insurance
- if the hole card is 2 to 9, I deny insurance.
To simulate this, I must set the Win Insurance Percentage to 100, n'est-ce pas?
Now, since this would look too suspicious, I should choose another Insurance behaviour.
One logical option to me is to never take Insurance, like in Basic Strategy.
But what Win Insurance Percentage must I enter into CVData in this case?
If I set this to the default value "0 percent", does this mean that I always make the wrong decision,
so I take Insurance when the dealer upcard is 2 to 9 and I deny Insurance when the dealer upcard is a Ten?
Never taking Insurance means that I take the wrong decision in 4/13 = 30 percent of the cases
and I take the right decision in 9/13 = 70 percent of the cases, so should I set the parameter to 70?
Or does the parameter mean the percentage of correct bets provided that I choose to take Insurance,
so I should set the parameter to 0 percent since I don't take Insurance at all?
I'm somewhat confused about this.
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