A5v2 at TC-5 Double down or eat cards?

[Secretariat]

It's been pretty quiet here these days and I thought I could live it up with this "problem".

Let's say you're halfway into a 6D, S17 and you are dealt A5v2 at TC-5 (RC-15) with HiLo
The subset I have gives a +7% EV with DD and +5% with a Hit.
It's pretty much even and we probably can't tell the difference in EV at the table anyway.

What do you do Hit or DD?

My take would be to hit and eat up as many low cards as possible if my hit card is A,2,6,7 and even 8.

Your thoughts anyone?

Oh, let's pretend this is the only table available within 100 miles so nobody will say "you shouldn't be at the table at TC-5."

Secretariat

[Norm]

Why would you even think of doubling? Sure you don't mean A5v5?

[Freightman]

I was once chastised by the maestro (author of that BJA or something, name of Billy Schwartz, or was that Don) when I said I made more money by knowing so many negative indices. Of course, what I meant to say was that knowledge of negative indices is so that you lose less.

In any event, when faced with the crappy deck you are describing, it is your sworn duty, a caveat promised before Almighty G_d, to eat as many cards as possible. Hit, hit and if practical, hit again.

Doubling, even if incorrect, only takes one card. Of course, should you snag a 3 card soft 21, the card G-d’s want you to pass.

[Freightman]

Why would you even think of doubling? Sure you don't mean A5v5?

o4 pissibly (and what I think) a marginal double in any event - A2 v 5.

[Secretariat]

Why would you even think of doubling? Sure you don't mean A5v5?

Indeed A5v5 is more DD inclined but as mentioned in OP the precise EV for that particular deck composition is +7% with DD and +5% with a HIT. Let's say you know it's basically a coin flip, what do you do Norm, Hit or DD?

[Secretariat]

o4 pissibly (and what I think) a marginal double in any event - A2 v 5.

Also true. Tend to agree with you Freight, HIT HIT HIT!

[Norm]

Where are you getting these numbers? They make no sense.

[Secretariat]

Pretty easy to find EV for different deck compositions and specific hands.

[Norm]

Not so for all deck compositions that match the situation.

[Secretariat]

Not so for all deck compositions that match the situation.

I lost the specific deck compo of the OP. I'll submit another one in 5 minutes. Let's see if we get the same numbers.

[Secretariat]

Not so for all deck compositions that match the situation.

Norm what do you get as EV for A5v2 with this subset? Here's what I get.

A5v2 With this subset (RC=-22, TC-7), DD = +6% EV, Hit = 4,8%
A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T
8 14 14 14 14 14 7 7 7 40

Note: The OP subset was less symetric and came off a CV shoe.

[Norm]

EV isn't even positive and you would need a TC of around +15 for a double to be higher EV. The good news is that the methodology you are using is fast. The bad news is that it doesn't work. You can't look at one subset. Sorry, you can't look at a million subsets and get a reasonable answer.

[Secretariat]

EV isn't even positive and you would need a TC of around +15 for a double to be higher EV. The good news is that the methodology you are using is fast. The bad news is that it doesn't work. You can't look at one subset. Sorry, you can't look at a million subsets and get a reasonable answer.

Would be nice if you could give an EV for the subset I submit for both Hit and DD. It can't be that far off from the data I got.