Translating playing efficiency into W/L/P

[Norm]

Take a look at all the output screens.

[BJcountingmaster]

DOUBLE 12 on dealer 5 ?

Well, I am not a complete idiot, Norm. I would not hesitate to double down my 12 against dealer 5 when the deck composition is appropriate! That being said, I'll try to go deeper into mastering CV Data.

[21forme]

DOUBLE 12 on dealer 5 ?

Note he said when the deck composition is appropriate. That means nothing but 9s left in the deck.

[Secretariat]

Note he said when the deck composition is appropriate. That means nothing but 9s left in the deck.

There are different deck compositions that would dictate to double 12 v 5 like this one below
A23456789T
4442466644
It would yield a +20% return compared to -34% when standing and +10% with hitting.
Note that there is a total of sixteen 789s, twenty A23456s and only four tens.

[Secretariat]

Correction. DD with the above would yield a +14% return, not 20%. It would be the best move.

[Secretariat]

Correction again since I misplaced the Ace
A23456789T
4444246664
DD=+14%, H = +10%, S = -34%

[DSchles]

It's fun to construct subsets such as the ones above, but they have no practical applications whatsoever. Where are you going to find a DD game dealt until 10 cards remain? What's the point?

Don

[Freightman]

I would not hesitate to double down my 12 against dealer 5 when the deck composition is appropriate

I did that once.
Hmm I said, what to do. Cute dealer said double, so I doubled. I didn’t mean that she said - but I insisted. I used to side count 9’s in those days, and there was a surplus with a negative deck.

Don't remember who got what, but I won the hand - and besides, it’s a good min bet cover play.

[Freightman]

It's fun to construct subsets such as the ones above, but they have no practical applications whatsoever. Where are you going to find a DD game dealt until 10 cards remain? What's the point?

Don

Hmmm, a 6 deck game at true 10 not worth insuring. It’s possible with a deck or less remaining - in fact, anything is possible.

[Secretariat]

It's fun to construct subsets such as the ones above, but they have no practical applications whatsoever. Where are you going to find a DD game dealt until 10 cards remain? What's the point?

Don

In fact Don, there are 44 cards left at the beginning of the round which is quite normal at DD.
I just added a 6D example with 128 cards left on the first line and DD is slightly the better play.
We could do dozens of subsets and show strategy variations but that was not the idea behind my OP.
How did we end up discussing double downs?

A	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	T	Cards	DD	HIT	S
12	8	8	8	8	8	16	16	16	28	128	2,40%	1,20%	-1,20%
4	4	4	4	2	4	6	6	6	4	44	+14%	+10%	-34%

The point from the OP was never about improving WLP while giving up doubling down and giving up EV
The 12v5 DD is rarely the best move I concede, but at rare times it is.

My point from the beginning is that I try to win every damn hand possible and I'd like to know what the upper limit is. If I know I can win 1 or 2 extra hands and hour with optimal card play, then why not? It adds up.

I have been involved in sports performance all my life and I have never seen a coach or an athlete
say that winning a shift, a point, a play, is unimportant. Why blackjack should be different?

Showing what the 4-5 best SCORES (systems) yield in terms of WLP would end this discussion as far as I am concerned.
But it looks like I will have to find out on CV Data and my limited ability with it.

[Secretariat]

Hmmm, a 6 deck game at true 10 not worth insuring. It’s possible with a deck or less remaining - in fact, anything is possible.

...Like this at RC 19 and TC10 with 95 cards left
A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T

24

6

6

5

6

6

6

6

6

24

[BJcountingmaster]

Only 4 Ten left ? 40 others left ?


For simplicity, Consolidate all of NON Ten Cards to one category


For Double deck. The probability of only 4 Ten left and 40 None-Ten left is Hypergeometric which is 1.6%


Why we care about such small possibilities?

More extremely you can have no Tens and only everything else, 12 behave like 11 should always be doubled

even more extremely you can have no Tens and NINEs, then 13 behave like 11, should always be doubled

Considering the small probability it is Not practical at all.

There are different deck compositions that would dictate to double 12 v 5 like this one below
A23456789T
4442466644
It would yield a +20% return compared to -34% when standing and +10% with hitting.
Note that there is a total of sixteen 789s, twenty A23456s and only four tens.

[Secretariat]

Only 4 Ten left ? 40 others left ?


For simplicity, Consolidate all of NON Ten Cards to one category


For Double deck. The probability of only 4 Ten left and 40 None-Ten left is Hypergeometric which is 1.6%


Why we care about such small possibilities?

More extremely you can have no Tens and only everything else, 12 behave like 11 should always be doubled

even more extremely you can have no Tens and NINEs, then 13 behave like 11, should always be doubled

Considering the small probability it is Not practical at all.

The OP was not about this hand. It was not even about doubling down. It's been steered that way but with the proper side count (s) it's possible to take advantage of many "improbable" situations when they arise.