9 Free $100 Sports Bets

[DSchles]

I'm not fully familiar with US promotions but if the free bet was in the form of a coupon then the value of that $100.00 coupon at a casino playing red or black on a double zero wheel is:
[(18/38 * 2) + (20/38 * -1)] * $100 = $42.11.

No, I don't think so. The free bet doesn't return $200 if you win it; it returns $100. If you lose it, you have nothing. So, the free $100 "mind" bet wins 18/38 of the time. If you won exactly half the time, the bet would be worth 1/2 x $100 = $50. Since you win 18/38 of the time, the bet is worth 18/38 x $100 = $47.37.

Don

[davethebuilder]

No, I don't think so. The free bet doesn't return $200 if you win it; it returns $100. If you lose it, you have nothing. So, the free $100 "mind" bet wins 18/38 of the time. If you won exactly half the time, the bet would be worth 1/2 x $100 = $50. Since you win 18/38 of the time, the bet is worth 18/38 x $100 = $47.37.

Don

A coupon is basically a cashless chip so if you bet that along with a real money bet of the same amount and you win (an even money bet) then it will return double, however, if you lose then you have, in effect, only lost your original bet. So the coupon has a value other than the simple odds. I guess you could call the coupon a form of loss rebate whose value can change depending on the variance and the paytable of any given game.

[DSchles]

A coupon is basically a cashless chip so if you bet that along with a real money bet of the same amount and you win (an even money bet) then it will return double, however, if you lose then you have, in effect, only lost your original bet. So the coupon has a value other than the simple odds. I guess you could call the coupon a form of loss rebate whose value can change depending on the variance and the paytable of any given game.

This is a one-time free $100 bet. I think you're making the calculation more complicated than it needs to be, by introducing another bet with real money made along with it. There is no such implication. You get to bet $100 "funny money" on red. What do you win, if you win? Answer: $100. How frequently do you win that bet? 18 times out of 38. The value of the bet is the product of those two numbers: 18/38 x $100 = $47.37.

Don

[davethebuilder]

This is a one-time free $100 bet. I think you're making the calculation more complicated than it needs to be, by introducing another bet with real money made along with it. There is no such implication. You get to bet $100 "funny money" on red. What do you win, if you win? Answer: $100. How frequently do you win that bet? 18 times out of 38. The value of the bet is the product of those two numbers: 18/38 x $100 = $47.37.

Don

Fair point, however, you have to spend a certain amount of real money in order to qualify for the rebate. So it depends on how you then use the coupon, that is, whether the player incorporates it with their next bet or uses it as a stand alone bet. I think in the first case my calculations are correct and in the second case yours are.

[aceside]

Fair point, however, you have to spend a certain amount of real money in order to qualify for the rebate. So it depends on how you then use the coupon, that is, whether the player incorporates it with their next bet or uses it as a stand alone bet. I think in the first case my calculations are correct and in the second case yours are.

Can you or anybody else help calculate this poker hand probability? In Texas Hold’Em,

Community cards: Qs, Jd, 10h;
Your cards: Qh, Qd;
Opponent cards: Ad, Ks.

What is the probability of you getting a full house? The Texas Hold'em Poker Odds Calculator shows a probability of 30%, but I just can not get it right. Thank you in advance!
Here Qs means a Queen-of-spades card, and so on.

[Midwest Player]

This is how the free bet works. You earn the free bet either playing blackjack or roulette in the online casino. In the case of blackjack if you play $2,500 in action you earn one free $100 bet. With roulette a $1,000 in action will earn one free $100 bet. You can't bet the free bet in the online casino, instead you go to their sports betting page and bet it there. You can't add any additional money with the bet so you only get the winnings back. They will deduct the vig so in most cases a $100 bet will return around $90. You can parlay the bet or bet on long shots to get more than $100 back.

Since blackjack has such a low house edge it is a pretty good promotion on blackjack, not so much on roulette. By the way, the casino did offer this promotion again late last night on blackjack. I only had enough time to win 8 free $100 bets and also made a couple hundred playing the blackjack earning the free bets.

Anyone know if Rogers will be playing this weekend?

[Captain Colon]

Can you or anybody else help calculate this poker hand probability? In Texas Hold’Em,

Community cards: Qs, Jd, 10h;
Your cards: Qh, Qd;
Opponent cards: Ad, Ks.

What is the probability of you getting a full house? The Texas Hold'em Poker Odds Calculator shows a probability of 30%, but I just can not get it right. Thank you in advance!
Here Qs means a Queen-of-hearts card, and so on.

I come to 13.33% + 13.63% = 26.99%
7 cards are known. 45 remain. Only a jack or 10 will give you the full house. There are 3 jacks and 3 queens remaining. You have 6 chances out of 45 of getting the full house on the whatever you call it. If you don’t get it, you then 6 chances out of 44 cards on that last card.

So
6/45 + 6/44 = 13.33% + 13.63% = 26.99%

[aceside]

In the case of blackjack if you play $2,500 in action you earn one free $100 bet.

?

This sounds too sweet to believe! If the house advantage is 0.7% on online blackjack, the casino makes $17.5, but you get $100 free bet back? Is this for Michigan state only? I want to switch to online gambling too.

[aceside]

I come to 13.33% + 13.63% = 26.99%
7 cards are known. 45 remain. Only a jack or 10 will give you the full house. There are 3 jacks and 3 queens remaining. You have 6 chances out of 45 of getting the full house on the whatever you call it. If you don’t get it, you then 6 chances out of 44 cards on that last card.

So
6/45 + 6/44 = 13.33% + 13.63% = 26.99%

I got 25.1%, but https://www.pokernews.com/poker-tool...calculator.htm Shows 30% on its calculator.

Here is my calculation:
If there is only one Jack or 10 in the remaining two spots,
Probability=6x39/C(45,2)=23.6%;

If there are two of the jacks or 10s in the remaining two spots,
probability=C(6,2)/C(45,2)=1.5%.

So, total prob=25.1%.

[DSchles]

I got 25.1%, but https://www.pokernews.com/poker-tool...calculator.htm Shows 30% on its calculator.

Here is my calculation:
If there is only one Jack or 10 in the remaining two spots,
Probability=6x39/C(45,2)=23.6%;

If there are two of the jacks or 10s in the remaining two spots,
probability=C(6,2)/C(45,2)=1.5%.

So, total prob=25.1%.

Your answer would be right if getting a jack or ten were the only ways to get a full house. Captain Colon's answer is not correct. You can't add his way. You have to do 39/45 x 38/44 and subtract from 1. But, the reason that 25.15% is also not the correct answer is that, to this value, you have to add the OTHER ways of getting a full house that you're forgetting, and that's that the two remaining cards can be any other pair, such as 9s, 8s, 7s, etc.

Don

[aceside]

Your answer would be right if getting a jack or ten were the only ways to get a full house. Captain Colon's answer is not correct. You can't add his way. You have to do 39/45 x 38/44 and subtract from 1. But, the reason that 25.15% is also not the correct answer is that, to this value, you have to add the OTHER ways of getting a full house that you're forgetting, and that's that the two remaining cards can be any other pair, such as 9s, 8s, 7s, etc.

Don

Wonderful! Thank you.

[Midwest Player]

This sounds too sweet to believe! If the house advantage is 0.7% on online blackjack, the casino makes $17.5, but you get $100 free bet back? Is this for Michigan state only? I want to switch to online gambling too.

The house advantage on most of these games is 0.5% or less. However the $100 free bet is only worth about $90 after the vig and assuming you win the free bet only half the time its real value is around $45.

There are about 4 or 5 states that have legal online casinos and MI is one of them. New Jersey is another.

[Midwest Player]

Damn, they are tightening up their promotions and offering a shorter time period to get the required play in. Which would you choose to play?

Click "Choose Now" to choose one of the six following options to redeem during the promotional period (11/12/2021 - 11/14/2021 at 11:59 PM EST). Choose wisely because your first choice locks you in!*

Option #1 Get $5,000 DK Dollars when you wager $600,000 on DraftKings Casino (Craps Excluded)
Option #2 Get a $3,000 bet pack when you wager $250,000 on DraftKings Casino (Craps Excluded)
Option #3 Receive 15% of your total net losses on all Casino games (Up to $2,000 in Casino Free Credits) when have a net loss of $50 or more
Option #4 Earn a $100 Free Bet for every $2,000 wagered on DraftKings American Roulette (Up to $2,000 in Free Bets)
Option #5 Earn $100 in Casino Free Credits for every $3,000 wagered on Slots games (Up to $5,000 in Casino Free Credits)
Option #6 Earn $2,000 in Casino Free Credits when you place 1,000 hands of $100 or more on DraftKings Table Games (Live Dealer & Craps are excluded)


I think the only one worth playing would be #6, but I swear they turn on beast mode when you are playing large bets. I never get streaks of winning 10 hands in a row playing a $100, but if I'm only playing $10 I get them all the time.