If all the bets were even money, I make the odds of going 2-9 1 in 55. So, not the greatest longshot in the world.Originally Posted by Midwest Player
Don
What I mean is that the only reason sports books give out free bets is with the hope/assumption that most people will just bet them with guesses or, even worse, parlays… If you look back to my 1st reply, I gave you a way to make a guaranteed 45% return on your $900
I agree, sort of, under the right circumstances. For me, maximizing EV is the right move when you are under the assumption that you will be able to repeat the event many times over to where EV and AV will eventually align (i.e., BJ hands). I don’t see sports betting free bets the same way. If I was given a one-time offer of a $100,000 free bet that I could either cash-out for $45K or must bet on a higher EV parlay, I take the guaranteed 45% AV all day. How would you play it?
Always a fun discussion among players: Heads you win $100K, tails you win nothing ... or, you can take a guaranteed $45K. Most people would take the $45K. But, heads you win $10, tails, nothing, or you can take a guaranteed $4.50, most people would say, what the hell, flip the coin!
So, it's a matter of what your personal utility function is and where you switch over from flipping to taking the guaranteed payout. Ask 100 people where that crossover point is, and you certainly will get a wide range of answers.
Don
Okay, we will see if 21forme is full of shit.
He says parlays are the way to go so this week I have a total of 13 free bets with 12 of them being only $5 free bets. If I single bet them and win they are good for around $4.50 each. If I win half of them I will have around $27. The parlay bets are worth around $13 each so I will need to win at least 3 to bet the single bets.
Anyway here are my bets for this week. Wish me luck on my one $1,000 bet.
LA Rams -14
Spread
LA Rams @ HOU Texans (10/31 1:00 p.m.)
-110
Over 46.5
Total
LA Rams @ HOU Texans (10/31 1:00 p.m.)
-110
ARI Cardinals -17.5
Spread
HOU Texans @ ARI Cardinals (10/24 4:25 p.m.)
-110
Under 47.5
Total
HOU Texans @ ARI Cardinals (10/24 4:25 p.m.)
-110
IND Colts +4.5
Spread
IND Colts @ SF 49ers (10/24 8:20 p.m.)
-110
Over 44.5
Total
IND Colts @ SF 49ers (10/24 8:20 p.m.)
-110
Over 47
Total
CHI Bears @ TB Buccaneers (10/24 4:25 p.m.)
-110
CHI Bears +12.5
Spread
CHI Bears @ TB Buccaneers (10/24 4:25 p.m.)
-110
Under 49.5
Total
PHI Eagles @ LV Raiders (10/24 4:05 p.m.)
-110
LV Raiders
Moneyline
PHI Eagles @ LV Raiders (10/24 4:05 p.m.)
-170
LA Rams -14.5
Spread
DET Lions @ LA Rams (10/24 4:05 p.m.)
-110
Under 50.5
Total
DET Lions @ LA Rams (10/24 4:05 p.m.)
-110
KC Chiefs
Moneyline
KC Chiefs @ TEN Titans (10/24 1:00 p.m.)
-220
Under 56.5
Total
KC Chiefs @ TEN Titans (10/24 1:00 p.m.)
-10
NY Jets +7
Spread
NY Jets @ NE Patriots (10/24 1:00 p.m.)
-110
Over 42.5
Total
NY Jets @ NE Patriots (10/24 1:00 p.m.)
-110
CIN Bengals +6.5
Spread
CIN Bengals @ BAL Ravens (10/24 1:00 p.m.)
-110
Over 47
Total
CIN Bengals @ BAL Ravens (10/24 1:00 p.m.)
-110
Over 44
Total
CAR Panthers @ NY Giants (10/24 1:00 p.m.)
-110
CAR Panthers
Moneyline
CAR Panthers @ NY Giants (10/24 1:00 p.m.)
-155
MIA Dolphins
Moneyline
ATL Falcons @ MIA Dolphins (10/24 1:00 p.m.)
-110
Under 47.5
Total
ATL Falcons @ MIA Dolphins (10/24 1:00 p.m.)
-115
DEN Broncos +5
Spread
DEN Broncos @ CLE Browns (10/21 8:20 p.m.)
-105
Pays $952.38
Over 44
Total
NO Saints @ SEA Seahawks (10/25 8:15 p.m.)
-110
Last edited by Midwest Player; 10-20-2021 at 11:06 AM.
Email: [email protected]
The first one is on 10/31 and the second on 10/24. I had so many free bets I had to go into the next week to bet them all.Looks like the Texans are going to be busy. Playing at home at 1 then jumping on a plane to get to Arizona for 4:25!
Don
Email: [email protected]
I assume you’re joking about using one week to determine the validity of 21’s statement. Also, can your free bets only be used on NFL full game ML, spread, O/U? If not, you know there are literally hundreds of other things to bet on, right?
If I don't win at least one parlay bet, 21forme is full of shit. You yourself didn't recommend parlay bets and I thought I read somewhere (possibly Vegas Casino Talk) that parlay bets are stupid bets.
I do believe these free bets can be used on anything, but football is the only sport I follow.
Email: [email protected]
That's like saying, "If I don't win at least one of the my big bets during this high count, then counting is nonsense".
The best bets for free play are always high variance bets you would never make with cash. Recall Grosjean's "Beyond Coupons" where he showed that a single number in roulette is the best bet in the casino for a free play coupon. The same principle applies here.
We had this discussion earlier, but let me say this again. Although you know this guy Grosjean, you do not really understand coupons and free bets. I have not encountered any casino in USA that allows you to use these coupons on a single number in Roulette. I always bet on red or black squares even money bets.
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