Beyond Counting: Exhibit CAA - Needed

[ShipTheCookies]

For the record, I'm fairly certain SP21 isn't discussed much, if at all, in ExCAA.

[Midwest Player]

I just started looking into Spanish 21. I read Katarina’s book and simulated her strategy with index. I have to say it’s pretty terrible: about 60% ev comparing to regular blackjack, and 3 times more risk of ruin. I don’t know how did she made $200/hr ev back then, but I imagine it would take some fantastic game to get there.

I’m wondering what is your experience with Spanish 21?

Really Spanish 21 can have a lower house edge than regular blackjack depending on the rules. For the online game I'm playing the house edge is less than 0.40%.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/spanish-21/

[21forme]

For the record, I'm fairly certain SP21 isn't discussed much, if at all, in ExCAA.

that's correct. you're forgetting that aceside is always wrong.

[aceside]

that's correct. you're forgetting that aceside is always wrong.

Not alway wrong. I estimate that I was wrong probably 30% of the time.

[aceside]

I just started looking into Spanish 21. I read Katarina’s book and simulated her strategy with index. I have to say it’s pretty terrible: about 60% ev comparing to regular blackjack, and 3 times more risk of ruin. I don’t know how did she made $200/hr ev back then, but I imagine it would take some fantastic game to get there.

I’m wondering what is your experience with Spanish 21?


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You are more advanced in Spanish 21 than me. How do you calculate the 60% EV of Spanish 21? I find it is hard to compare Spanish 21 and blackjack. Although I have the skills for this game, my attending of Spanish 21 is mainly for entertainment, because the penetrations of all of the available Spanish decks for me are worse than blackjack’s. I mean the number of cards behind the cut card is the same as that in blackjack, but this equivalently reduces the penetration in Spanish decks.

About the books, I also want a copy of Advanced Advantage Play from Eliot Jacobson. I found his writings are relatively easier to understand and he also gives adequate introduction to a topic he explains. In contrast, I find James Grosjeans articles are hard to read because he does not give very much introduction to a topic and his titles and introductions are often too abrupt.

[Raybabyray]

For the record, I'm fairly certain SP21 isn't discussed much, if at all, in ExCAA.

You are right. We are a little off topic here.


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[Raybabyray]

Really Spanish 21 can have a lower house edge than regular blackjack depending on the rules. For the online game I'm playing the house edge is less than 0.40%.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/spanish-21/

That’s true. I’m talking about the effectiveness of counting comparing between them.


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[Raybabyray]

You are more advanced in Spanish 21 than me. How do you calculate the 60% EV of Spanish 21? I find it is hard to compare Spanish 21 and blackjack. Although I have the skills for this game, my attending of Spanish 21 is mainly for entertainment, because the penetrations of all of the available Spanish decks for me are worse than blackjack’s. I mean the number of cards behind the cut card is the same as that in blackjack, but this equivalently reduces the penetration in Spanish decks.

About the books, I also want a copy of Advanced Advantage Play from Eliot Jacobson. I found his writings are relatively easier to understand and he also gives adequate introduction to a topic he explains. In contrast, I find James Grosjeans articles are hard to read because he does not give very much introduction to a topic and his titles and introductions are often too abrupt.

Im simulating the game with Katarina’s strategy in CVData.

I’m getting a score of 7 without wonging. I thought regular blackjack has much more score.

According to Katarina in her book, she was making $200/hr EV. I don’t know how is that possible with this score.


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[Super Natural]

I’m getting a score of 7 without wonging.

There is something wrong with your sim. Do you get basic strategy 0.42 HE without implementing Kats strategy?

I studied the h17 variant and my CVdata play-all scores aligned pretty close with the ones she published.

Pictured are my custom system compared with hers.

[21forme]

Not alway wrong. I estimate that I was wrong probably 30% of the time.

That is wrong, too.

[Raybabyray]

There is something wrong with your sim. Do you get basic strategy 0.42 HE without implementing Kats strategy?

I studied the h17 variant and my CVdata play-all scores aligned pretty close with the ones she published.

Pictured are my custom system compared with hers.

Thanks for sharing.

Where can we get HE from CVData?

I am referring to her book "The Pro's Guide to Spanish 21 and Australian Pontoon". In page 89, Table 6.11 shows back counting scores, H17 is around 27. I am getting the similar result from simulation.

In Page 90, table 6.12 shows H17 game 81.25 pen , we are getting 7.0 score playing all using full indices. This is similar to what I have from CVData.

The bet spread used to calculate score is TC <1 $25 x 1, TC =2 $50 x 2, TC=3 $100 x 2, TC>=4 $200 x 2

[Super Natural]

The HE is house edge. I thought you meant your sim results weren't jiving with her published scores, it's been a while since I looked at her book.

Simple answer though to 200/hr .. she didn't play those bad games. I assume she only published those sim results for info. If memory serves she played great 4 deck Pontoon games and the usual good sp21 found in the US, before the counting exploits were widely known.

[Raybabyray]

The HE is house edge. I thought you meant your sim results weren't jiving with her published scores, it's been a while since I looked at her book.

Simple answer though to 200/hr .. she didn't play those bad games. I assume she only published those sim results for info. If memory serves she played great 4 deck Pontoon games and the usual good sp21 found in the US, before the counting exploits were widely known.

She sure did. On one hand, I appreciate nowadays we have all the software and books out there inspiring us. On the other hand, I felt like it would be nice back then the games are not well know so we can take advantage of them.