Another sorta bad beat story / tactics discussion

[J21]

Long story short. A few nights ago worked $200 into exactly $15K in just one shoe (third shoe of the night). I was steadily increasing my bets towards the end. I had 2 hands at up to $1,500 each... I know, I know...) and the cards were coming out exactly as the count calculated. I felt uneasy as if a back-off was coming but this casino had me for over $25K so I figured I meant action for them. Just then I decide to go 2 hands at $5K each. Just like that. Now or never. Good count. End of shoe. Plenty of aces left. Would make up for the loss if I won. I would likely get 86'ed but I would be fine with that. Dealt soft 18 and AA against dealers 7. STOOD on soft 18. I was contemplating hitting but ended up splitting aces. $15K on the table. Get a f'in 9 for 20 and A for 12. If dealer would flip a 10 id be at $20K. Dealer flips a 7 followed by 10 oh boy im at $30K !!! Pit boss is scoffing, and actually says "nice play"

I should of got up and RAN the hell out of there. But I felt incredible and there were at most 3 hands left in the shoe and I went for it put $10K down. Dealt 66 against 6. SPLIT. First card out was a 9...... then a 10 so I had 15 and 16. dealer flips a f'in Ace. Dropped $20K back but I left with the $10K. It all happened so fast. Logic went out the window again. The ride home was terrible. Still dwelling about it. BUT, in my situation was this the right play ?

The $10K win was nice, but it still felt as if I lost $20K that night. In defense however, isn't this exactly what an AP or counter dreams about ? That one good run with increasing bets at the right times that would break the casinos for 6 figures in one night. That's my take on it. But I am back to square one again $50 min bets next round

[Goatlife]

seriously ... you need to stop play.. your roll is only 50k right? its not if your going to bust its when ur going to go bust if you keep playing the way you are.....please go to a gamblers anyonomous meeting


here is the link for the local meetings
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/locations


I am not kidding.. your are not talking about small dollars...seriously quit......u might be able to do it later but your going to do urself great harm......

also there is a good chance your not playing correctly.... if you are playing perfectly you would have been 86 for the money ur playing enless you are playing a really tolerant store.. its sounds like your not cause u said they u got half shoed before.....ur f*cking up bigtime.... stop being a degen and get help

[ZenKinG]

LOL, i agree.. overbetting perhaps?

[Smartpart]

A few nights ago worked $200 into exactly $15K in just one shoe.

First red flag.

Just then I decide to go 2 hands at $5K each. Just like that. Now or never. Good count.

Second red flag.

I was contemplating hitting but ended up splitting aces.

Out of red flags.

But I felt incredible and there were at most 3 hands left in the shoe and I went for it put $10K down. Dealt 66 against 6. SPLIT. First card out was a 9...... then a 10 so I had 15 and 16. dealer flips a f'in Ace. Dropped $20K back but I left with the $10K. It all happened so fast. Logic went out the window again. The ride home was terrible. Still dwelling about it. BUT, in my situation was this the right play ?

Hell no it wasn't the right play. I'm with smallcap. You need to call the hotline.

In defense however, isn't this exactly what an AP or counter dreams about ? That one good run with increasing bets at the right times that would break the casinos for 6 figures in one night. That's my take on it.

You are completely and utterly misinformed.

[ZenKinG]

this is why counting books are sold in stores, this is the best thing that has ever happened to them.. too many aspiring counters think they are master counters and dont understand the true math behind it, and too many counters go in unprepared just cause they think they can count +1 and -1 and convert to true count.. Casinos are laughing all the way to the bank unfortunately.. J21, please do yourself a favor and actually read some chapters on bankroll management and the true essence behind a card counters advantage.. Do you even understand where a counters advantage comes from?

[zengrifter]

User is banned, content deleted.

[RS]

• Let's take a second here and figure out everything that's going on here....
• 1) If there is an excess of Aces with a skyrocket count, these are the moments that we, as counters, can only dream of. If it really that "skyrocket", then TC can be +15 or higher, giving a +7% edge. With an excess of Aces, I don't know the math for this one, but I can only assume he had well over a 10% edge, if not more.
• What's wrong with dropping 1.5K or 2x5K in these situations, assuming his BR can handle it? After all, just because we're counting, doesn't mean we have 100% chance to win in the long run. In reality, we are all just gambling that we won't be in that 5% of our ROR, or that 1%, or that 0.01%, whatever.
• We're gambling, he's gambling. Great wins come from great risks. No story worth hearing ever started with "So I was eating a salad...". You gotta risk it to make that biscuit.
• IIRC, there are "risk-aversion" plays, which means when you have a max bet out, you might alter your strategy so you don't lose it all. An example might be surrendering a 14 vs 10 at a monster count with a huge max bet....or something like that. Chances are, you're not going to win if you hit, but it can save half of a huge bet if you're playing with a high-ROR.
• Put yourself in a situation, say you accidentally placed a stack of blacks in the circle instead of a stack of greens at a super negative count. You're dealt A,A v 10.
• Then again, all I know about the situation is what I read (and my interpretation of it). For all I know, he could be a degenerate gambler who needs help, etc. But I guess I'm just an omtipist or whatever that's called.

[mc_square]

J21, not sure if you mentioned this yet in another post, but have you ever had the pleasure of running CVCX software yet? If not, get it and run a sim of the game you're playing and include your bankroll. Pay attention to how changing the bet spread/increments alters RoR, standard deviation and EV; this will often put things into perspective and show you why something you tried before didn't go well. A lot of times I thought I was playing a winning game, but when I honestly added everything up it turns out I should have lost a little bit and the fact that I had won anything was just positive variance doing its thing.

I think you said somewhere else that you also read the BJinfo board... if this is true, there is a wealth of information there (assuming it can still be browsed), but more specifically stories/examples of AP sins and the negative results for each (overbetting, deviation from basic strategy that -doesn't- correlate with a count, etc). I remember reading a few posts and thought, "Stop watching me!" It was a wake-up call, but the sooner the better in this business! If you must still play after this, I'd say just red-chip it for a good while, and play Casino Verite and study every error, do the drills, the whole nine. Good money management with disciplined play can yield awesome results.

[Matt21]

In defense however, isn't this exactly what an AP or counter dreams about ? That one good run with increasing bets at the right times that would break the casinos for 6 figures in one night. That's my take on it.

J21
No, as professional gamblers, we do NOT dream about this type of scenario. All our bets are carefully calculated with reference to our bankroll and edge of the play. What you did was to have a gamble.
We dream about finding good games with high limits, to have a bankroll that allows us to put the money down, and to be able to play without getting 86'ed. Yes, we sometimes bet $10k/hand, but only when the situation calls for it.

I am 100% with the comments made by the other APs. You should stop playing immediately. At present you are a gambler, not an AP - and there's a good chance that you may NEVER be an AP because of these tendencies.

[blackjack avenger]

To the OP:
If your bank is around $50,000 and you make $10,000 bets at blackjack; at any advantage, your ROR is about 100%.

[blackjack avenger]

• Let's take a second here and figure out everything that's going on here....
• 1) If there is an excess of Aces with a skyrocket count, these are the moments that we, as counters, can only dream of. If it really that "skyrocket", then TC can be +15 or higher, giving a +7% edge. With an excess of Aces, I don't know the math for this one, but I can only assume he had well over a 10% edge, if not more.
• What's wrong with dropping 1.5K or 2x5K in these situations, assuming his BR can handle it? After all, just because we're counting, doesn't mean we have 100% chance to win in the long run. In reality, we are all just gambling that we won't be in that 5% of our ROR, or that 1%, or that 0.01%, whatever.
• We're gambling, he's gambling. Great wins come from great risks. No story worth hearing ever started with "So I was eating a salad...". You gotta risk it to make that biscuit.
• IIRC, there are "risk-aversion" plays, which means when you have a max bet out, you might alter your strategy so you don't lose it all. An example might be surrendering a 14 vs 10 at a monster count with a huge max bet....or something like that. Chances are, you're not going to win if you hit, but it can save half of a huge bet if you're playing with a high-ROR.
• Put yourself in a situation, say you accidentally placed a stack of blacks in the circle instead of a stack of greens at a super negative count. You're dealt A,A v 10.
• Then again, all I know about the situation is what I read (and my interpretation of it). For all I know, he could be a degenerate gambler who needs help, etc. But I guess I'm just an omtipist or whatever that's called.

You seem to be missing some things:
If you don't bet properly you lose or your bank doesn't grow long term.
There is a rule to play every hand with BS or indicies. If you don't know an indicie you play BS.

One can play with a near certain 0% ROR, it's to bet a small fraction of Kelly resizing.

[blackjack avenger]

Another thing to the OP

At $50g bank and 10g bet what would you have done with a 3 hand split and double? If you don't have enough money to properly play a hand your advantage was not as high as you think. Also, with every spilt and double your ROR on that round goes through the roof because at that point the dealer can take all or cripple your bank. This is why the final $20g on loss in one round was so painful, because it was overbetting

[D.A.]

I'd also question how accurate your counting might be. You seem to get a lot of absurdly high counts. I've gone incredibly long stretches without seeing even 1 shoe hit so high. Maybe you are putting in more hours than I realize or you are absurdly fortunate, but your posts make it seem as though you're seeing them skyrocket quite often.