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For some weird reason, the MGP program worked fine for me today, so I was able to find out that the EV component for the 5+Card-21/678/777 autowin bonus is +0.35% for a 8-deck Spanish shoe Stand-17 game. However, this number sounds too large for me, because the probabilities of having these 5+Card-21/678/777 hands are very small but the additional gains from these hands are only 0.5/1/2. Even though the payoff are listed as 1.5/2/3, the player's 21 always win has already used the payoff of 1/1/1. I am not sure this MGP program calculated it correctly or not. If you can, please verify this number. Thank you for your help.
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I meant post the file under File > Save Rule set .. it's a .rs file.
Using your rules pictured above I get a total dependent EV of .. -0.407563384486091%
With no bonuses I get EV of -0.753553964463607 %
So the bonuses are worth 0.345990579977516, matching what you have.
I had analyzed certain rule changes to the sp21h17 variant .. pictured below, might help.
Last edited by Super Natural; 08-03-2021 at 08:07 PM.
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I carefully compared your rule set and mine and found that they were slight different. Under the Player-Dealer Payoffs\Hand Total\21 box, you checked "Player Win" but I checked "Push," but our calculation results came out exactly the same. I guess it doesn't matter as long as "Player 21 always wins" is checked. There are some overlapping of different rules and they are not defined very well.
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Based on the table above, I see the EV component for the 5+Card-21/678/777 autowin bonus is +0.33% for a 8-deck Spanish shoe Hit-17 game. Slightly less than the 0.35% of Stand-17 games, but it should be more. The result does not make sense because Hit-17 games give a greater EV component from 5+card-21 bonuses. Why? Maybe it is because Hit-17 games give a less EV from 678/777 autowin bonuses. This is trivial anyway.
Last edited by aceside; 08-05-2021 at 08:01 AM.
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