Questions about Player Advantage and 'Next Card is An Ace' Math

[Overkill]

Thanks so much, Don! That's what I was looking for, and more!

But regarding the 10 cards, dont we need to adjust for the varying frequencies of 10 vs. Aces (whereas we dont have to adjust for the scenario of 6s and Aces). What I mean is, if I believe Aces tend to follow tens, because there arent enough Aces to 'keep up' with the greater number of 10s (vs. Aces), isn't the anticipated 10-Ace 'connection' not as likely to take place due only to an unequal amount of Aces relative to 10s, thereby warranting some sort of 'correction' (perhaps multiplication?)?

Also, Freightman, if we are 100% certain (not just 15.1% certain) our first card will be an Ace, isnt our Advantage 51%, not just 7.8%?

[DSchles]

But regarding the 10 cards, dont we need to adjust for the varying frequencies of 10 vs. Aces (whereas we dont have to adjust for the scenario of 6s and Aces). What I mean is, if I believe Aces tend to follow tens, because there arent enough Aces to 'keep up' with the greater number of 10s (vs. Aces), isn't the anticipated 10-Ace 'connection' not as likely to take place due only to an unequal amount of Aces relative to 10s, thereby warranting some sort of 'correction' (perhaps multiplication?)?

Yes, sure. In the end, you can't have any more aces follow tens than follow sixes. But, then, you'd have to keep track of the tens followed by aces that come out and whether you "used up" opportunities that didn't produce aces.

Don