What Are Odds of Winning 20 Blackjack Hands in a Row

[DSchles]

I studied a little online and considered this problem more carefully. We use the following probabilities for each initial hand from Wizard: Win 42.43%; Lose 49.09%; Push 8.48%.
Of non-push hands, players win 46.36% and lose 53.64%. So the probability of wining exactly 20 hands in a row for this problem is
0.4636^20X0.5364=1.13E-7, that is 1 in 8.9 million.

There's no point in multiplying by the losing hand at the end, to end the streak at 20. Nothing bad is going to happen if you win 21 in a row instead! Also, Mike's numbers are not quite the standard ones. Don't know what rules he was using. Finally, as already stated, if you're trying to simply win the hand and don't care about e.v., there are many doubles and some splits that you wouldn't make, further increasing the odds of a winning hand. I gave you the numbers. You like to stubbornly--and often incorrectly--just ignore what others tell you and figure for yourself. "Trust but verify" is wonderful if you actually know what you're doing. But, ...

Don

[aceside]

There's no point in multiplying by the losing hand at the end, to end the streak at 20. Nothing bad is going to happen if you win 21 in a row instead! Also, Mike's numbers are not quite the standard ones. Don't know what rules he was using. Finally, as already stated, if you're trying to simply win the hand and don't care about e.v., there are many doubles and some splits that you wouldn't make, further increasing the odds of a winning hand. I gave you the numbers. You like to stubbornly--and often incorrectly--just ignore what others tell you and figure for yourself. "Trust but verify" is wonderful if you actually know what you're doing. But, ...

Don

I actually agree with you. You have made the right point.

[151Proof]

All I can say is it CAN happen.

A very, very, long time ago; when I first started playing, I won every hand in the shoe except one at the Claridge in AC. It was a four deck game back then and I don't remember how many in a row that passed by. I was heads up with the dealer so it could have been as much as 25 in a row or more if my average calculations are correct. I think I lost the last hand before the shuffle. And yes, after that was over, I left and cashed out.