Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
Hi Gronbog, Can you look into these probability numbers calculated from the MGP CA program? Each probability is exceptionally large and there is also a huge jump from the hand of 16 vs 6 to 16 vs 7. I don't understand at all.
From MGP CA, Hard TD Strategy, Probability:
16 vs 2: 0.092
16 vs 3: 0.091
16 vs 4: 0.083
16 vs 5: 0.079
16 vs 6: 0.073
16 vs 7: 0.120
16 vs 8: 0.121
16 vs 9: 0.123
16 vs 10: 0.127
16 vs A: 0.128
aceside,

The "jump" that occurs when the dealer's upcard moves from 6 to 7 is easy: say you're dealt a 6-8. If the dealer is showing a 6 (or less), B.S. says to stand, but if the dealer is showing a 7 (or more), B.S. says to hit. Thus, this hand will never become a 16 vs. 6, because you stood, but it may become a 16 vs. 7, if your hit card is a deuce.

To a lesser extent you can see this same phenomenon in the "drop" that occurs when the dealer's upcard moves from a 3 to a 4: this is because is you have 12 vs. a 2 or 3, you'll hit (and perhaps draw a 4 to make 16), but vs. a 4, 5, or 6, you'll stand.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand