Bust Bonus side bet

[Dog Hand]

Somewhere in Norm's millions of online charts and graphs is a chart of bust percentage by count. IIRC, 5 and 6 bust greater than 50% of the time at TC >= +10.

Here you go!

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

Dog Hand

[Starchild]

Here you go!

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

Dog Hand

Good to know! So this is probably only countable against 2-6 even though the 8 starts with the best house edge.

[UNCBear4SJ]

Good to know! So this is probably only countable against 2-6 even though the 8 starts with the best house edge.

Unless you do an 8 sidecount

[aceside]

Unless you do an 8 sidecount

I developed a count system for the bust bonus side bet, called ace-6. Every ace counts as +1 and every 6 counts as -1. When the TC is +2 and above, you bet on the side bet. Forget about the HiLo count. Can anybody simulate on this system?

[Starchild]

I developed a count system for the bust bonus side bet, called ace-6. Every ace counts as +1 and every 6 counts as -1. When the TC is +2 and above, you bet on the side bet. Forget about the HiLo count. Can anybody simulate on this system?

I'm curious as to why this would work well for this game. If the count is high, that means that there are many more aces than there are 6's. Why would that lead to significantly more busts? If I were to create a side count for this bet, I would think that counting 10's against 3-6 could work, but at that point you might as well just use a regular count.

Also, the whole point of this thread is that CVData can't simulate side bets that are made after the deal, so simulating your count isn't an easy task. I believe I've found a workaround, but I want to do a little bit more testing with it first.

[aceside]

I'm curious as to why this would work well for this game. If the count is high, that means that there are many more aces than there are 6's. Why would that lead to significantly more busts? If I were to create a side count for this bet, I would think that counting 10's against 3-6 could work, but at that point you might as well just use a regular count.

Also, the whole point of this thread is that CVData can't simulate side bets that are made after the deal, so simulating your count isn't an easy task. I believe I've found a workaround, but I want to do a little bit more testing with it first.

The count system should be 6-Ace, meaning a lot of deficit of aces at a high true count. This is exactly opposite to HiLo. At high TC, you bet on bust bonus; at low TC, you bet more on blackjack. If you can, please simulate this system.

[21forme]

I'm curious as to why this would work well for this game.

Even though you've been a member for 4 years, you've been inactive with only 10 posts, so you are probably unaware of aceside. In his 300ish posts, barely one has contained correct information. He's best ignored.

[aceside]

Even though you've been a member for 4 years, you've been inactive with only 10 posts, so you are probably unaware of aceside. In his 300ish posts, barely one has contained correct information. He's best ignored.

Trust me. I put in a lot of thoughts on this side bet. The correct counting system should be Ace-6, meaning a lot of deficit of aces at a high true count. You count aces as +1 and sixes as -1, exactly opposite to HiLo. At high TC, you bet on bust bonus; at low TC, you bet more on blackjack. You do not need HiLo for regular blackjack. All you need is the Ace-6. Please help simulate this.

[21forme]

Trust me.

You must be joking. you have zero credibility on this site.

I put in a lot of thoughts on this side bet.

Garbage in, garbage, out.

At high TC, you bet on bust bonus; at low TC, you bet more on blackjack. You do not need HiLo for regular blackjack. All you need is the Ace-6. Please help simulate this.

As is the case with INS bets, side counting aces is helpful in SD and DD games, but virtually worthless on shoe games, as demonstrated by Wong a long time ago. For that reason, as well as the fact you almost never get a count high enough to bet it in a 6 or 8 deck game, your system is useless. Further, Norm stated that his software cannot sim this sidebet because it's placed after the cards are dealt.

If you are that curious, contact Cadtwright, who has written custom BJ sim software that can sim just about anything. I'm sure he'll charge you for it, though.

[Norm]

Norm stated that his software cannot sim this sidebet because it's placed after the cards are dealt.

CVData V6 can handle side bets bet after the dealer card is dealt. I'm having problems with my monitors at the moment (actually last three weeks), but will put up an update later today that includes this bonus definition. Although anyone with V6 can set it up themselves.

[Gronbog]

I developed a count system

Translation: "I made up a counting system out of thin air. I enjoy trolling the researchers on this site."

[aceside]

Here you go!

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

Dog Hand

Hi Dog Hand,
I have carefully learned into your CVData simulation results but found a couple of problems:

#1. In your second chart, your bust rate when the dealer shows an Ace upcard is about 14%. This is way too small. When the dealer has an ace up, she will peek for a blackjack before offering the Bust Bonus bet. This peeking action will bring the bust rate to about 20%. Can you help sim this bust rate as a function of TC again?

#2. In your second chart, your bust rate when the dealer shows a 10 upcard is about 21%. This is small too. When you simmed, did you force the dealer to complete her hands?

Thank you in advance.

[21forme]

Hi Dog Hand,
I have carefully learned into your CVData simulation results but found a couple of problems:

#1. In your second chart, your bust rate when the dealer shows an Ace upcard is about 14%. This is way too small. When the dealer has an ace up, she will peek for a blackjack before offering the Bust Bonus bet. This peeking action will bring the bust rate to about 20%. Can you help sim this bust rate as a function of TC again?

#2. In your second chart, your bust rate when the dealer shows a 10 upcard is about 21%. This is small too. When you simmed, did you force the dealer to complete her hands?

Thank you in advance.

It's rude to dispute a well-respected math wiz off the cuff and without any proof. How do you come up with your conclusions that it's "too small"? Show your work!

BTW, you do realize that for an Ace to bust, it requires a minimum of 4 cards?