Officially Done with blackjack

[dalmatian]

I am totally and completely done with blackjack. The blackjack life is one long grind filled with misery and despair to the point that when you finally do succeed you've been so abused and crushed and disillusioned you cant even enjoy the win. I havent won much but I can say I put a lot of effort into learning halves and all the finer points of play. I struggled very long with having an adequate bank because I was I started from scratch. Well, after 3 years I'm up about 20k. Was that really worth it? Heck no. I can hustle with my full time job and add a second job like food delivery plus day trading stocks and easily make 100k a year. In order to make significantly more than that counting I would need a 200k bankroll and put it at risk and deal with insane roller coaster swings all the while traveling across the country living in squalor and complete shit. Its simply not worth it. And even if you do succeed, which is a HUGE IF, they'll make it impossible for you to play if you are capable of winning really money. So honestly at the end of the day, save yourself the misery and depression and go to school or start ur own business but PLEASE DONT COUNT CARDS. It totally SUCKS.

DALMATIAN

[BJGenius007]

I am totally and completely done with blackjack. The blackjack life is one long grind filled with misery and despair to the point that when you finally do succeed you've been so abused and crushed and disillusioned you cant even enjoy the win. I havent won much but I can say I put a lot of effort into learning halves and all the finer points of play. I struggled very long with having an adequate bank because I was I started from scratch. Well, after 3 years I'm up about 20k. Was that really worth it? Heck no. I can hustle with my full time job and add a second job like food delivery plus day trading stocks and easily make 100k a year. In order to make significantly more than that counting I would need a 200k bankroll and put it at risk and deal with insane roller coaster swings all the while traveling across the country living in squalor and complete shit. Its simply not worth it. And even if you do succeed, which is a HUGE IF, they'll make it impossible for you to play if you are capable of winning really money. So honestly at the end of the day, save yourself the misery and depression and go to school or start ur own business but PLEASE DONT COUNT CARDS. It totally SUCKS.

DALMATIAN

About easily making 100K a year on stock market. We have been living in an abnormal period of time in the past few years. The Fed has been making the market full of liquidity because it is what they know to combat crisis. If you long stock market, basically you can make good money on any stocks you pick. Don't expect this continues after Covid 19 crisis is over. You might feel you are a genius after easily earn 100K in 2020. But most Robinhood crowd and Redditers did the same. Let's see these people can duplicate the success after The Fed begin tapering.

[Jack Daniels]

I am totally and completely done with blackjack. The blackjack life is one long grind filled with misery and despair to the point that when you finally do succeed you've been so abused and crushed and disillusioned you cant even enjoy the win. I havent won much but I can say I put a lot of effort into learning halves and all the finer points of play. I struggled very long with having an adequate bank because I was I started from scratch. Well, after 3 years I'm up about 20k. Was that really worth it? Heck no. I can hustle with my full time job and add a second job like food delivery plus day trading stocks and easily make 100k a year. In order to make significantly more than that counting I would need a 200k bankroll and put it at risk and deal with insane roller coaster swings all the while traveling across the country living in squalor and complete shit. Its simply not worth it. And even if you do succeed, which is a HUGE IF, they'll make it impossible for you to play if you are capable of winning really money. So honestly at the end of the day, save yourself the misery and depression and go to school or start ur own business but PLEASE DONT COUNT CARDS. It totally SUCKS.

Hey Dalmatian, I feel your pain. I was just curious as to how to mitigate the "roller coaster". What is your percentage winning sessions, and what is your average gain and average loss. The basic thing I have learned, which is very hard to to do , is to limit the losses. Knowing that Card counting works, makes me want to stick around to recover my losses. My average win is $300.00, I win about 75% of my session. But my average loss is $1000.00 which is my session Bankroll. I'm slowly going broke. If I can lower my average loss to $500.00, Ill be in the money. I also found out that for me it is very hard to quit. as much as i hate loosing, I love to walk out with some of the casinos' money.

[Freightman]

My average win is $300.00, I win about 75% of my session. But my average loss is $1000.00 which is my session Bankroll

Excellent commentary to dissect and analyze. On 100 sessions you win 22500 and lose 25000, losing overall 2500. Reducing your average loss (which is your primary goal) to 500, maintaining your average win of 300, you win 22500 and lose 12500, winning 10000 overall. Equal dollar wins and losses of 300, you win 22500 and lose 7500, earning 15000 overall. Equal dollar wins and losses is almost impossible.

My first question - is 75% win rate based on style of play, or simply playing while losing to regain losses or lose more. Clearly, there is some flaw in your game. By the way, an average dollar loss exceeding average dollar win is typical. The key is to achieve a percentage win rate sufficient to overcome and get you to a figure roughly in concert with your simmed rate. The next step is to consider methodology to surpass your simmed rate and achieve superior to simmed rate returns.

Let me suggest something to all for debate. Consider (contrary to counter thinking), a style of play that reduces your average win, and reduces your average loss by a percentage surpassing your average win.

I can add more if I want, but let’s see what this drums up.

[dalmatian]

About easily making 100K a year on stock market. We have been living in an abnormal period of time in the past few years. The Fed has been making the market full of liquidity because it is what they know to combat crisis. If you long stock market, basically you can make good money on any stocks you pick. Don't expect this continues after Covid 19 crisis is over. You might feel you are a genius after easily earn 100K in 2020. But most Robinhood crowd and Redditers did the same. Let's see these people can duplicate the success after The Fed begin tapering.

I never said I can easily make 100k on the market. As a supplement to a full time job that pays 70k, a second job that pays 20k, I can easily be pushed into six figure territory especially since my bankroll is 150,000$ through Technical Analysis and dollar cost averaging......

[dalmatian]

Excellent commentary to dissect and analyze. On 100 sessions you win 22500 and lose 25000, losing overall 2500. Reducing your average loss (which is your primary goal) to 500, maintaining your average win of 300, you win 22500 and lose 12500, winning 10000 overall. Equal dollar wins and losses of 300, you win 22500 and lose 7500, earning 15000 overall. Equal dollar wins and losses is almost impossible.

My first question - is 75% win rate based on style of play, or simply playing while losing to regain losses or lose more. Clearly, there is some flaw in your game. By the way, an average dollar loss exceeding average dollar win is typical. The key is to achieve a percentage win rate sufficient to overcome and get you to a figure roughly in concert with your simmed rate. The next step is to consider methodology to surpass your simmed rate and achieve superior to simmed rate returns.

Let me suggest something to all for debate. Consider (contrary to counter thinking), a style of play that reduces your average win, and reduces your average loss by a percentage surpassing your average win.

I can add more if I want, but let’s see what this drums up.

Manipulating your win and loss rates or whatever you are talking about shouldn't affect your average win rate, which is all I care about.

[Freightman]

Manipulating your win and loss rates or whatever you are talking about shouldn't affect your average win rate, which is all I care about.

Im not talking about manipulating win rates, rather a style of play designed to maximize revenue over the long haul. This initially requires a grasp of concepts to which I have previously alluded to. To this end, an open mind to new ideas is required.

That being said, understanding the concepts is one thing - being able to execute is another. A closed mind such as yours being unable to grasp concepts will continue to relegate you to the ranks of the mediocre - regardless of your self proclaimed superior abilities.

[Cohiba]

Im not talking about manipulating win rates, rather a style of play designed to maximize revenue over the long haul. This initially requires a grasp of concepts to which I have previously alluded to. To this end, an open mind to new ideas is required.

That being said, understanding the concepts is one thing - being able to execute is another. A closed mind such as yours being unable to grasp concepts will continue to relegate you to the ranks of the mediocre - regardless of your self proclaimed superior abilities.

I am lost trying to understand what you are getting at with this style of play stuff? I just rock it up when i have an edge and go soft when the casino has the edge and try to maximize the hours of play. My only concern is am i getting a good game and if i continue to play is it likely to continue? Wins/losses at the moment are not even in the ether - other than to know where i am wrt to CTR and how i managed to address it. What is it about your style of play that you feel alters the outcome?

Thanks


Cohiba

[Freightman]

I am lost trying to understand what you are getting at with this style of play stuff? I just rock it up when i have an edge and go soft when the casino has the edge and try to maximize the hours of play. My only concern is am i getting a good game and if i continue to play is it likely to continue? Wins/losses at the moment are not even in the ether - other than to know where i am wrt to CTR and how i managed to address it. What is it about your style of play that you feel alters the outcome?

Thanks


Cohiba

Three things actually. The first is actually pretty straight forward and depending on the context of your comments, may be something you purposely practice as well.

You said - I just rock it up when i have an edge and go soft when the casino has the edge and try to maximize the hours of play. My only concern is am i getting a good game and if i continue to play is it likely to continue

First, I may be wrong, but I construe your comments as being that your style is non robotic, that you maximize your overall revenue not necessarily by knocking it out of the park on any particular session, but that you maximize your revenue over a number of sessions. This also suggests to me, if I’m correct, that your bankroll is in the solid range, that you abide by Kelly principles in general but not strictly by actual advantage to actual bankroll.

Second (which leads into the third), I use an upper and lower ramp betting scheme within the same shoe which, in the lower true counts varies simply to mix it up, and in the higher true counts shifts between the ramps depending on factors.

Third, those factors being my own little twist - QTC or Quality of True Count. Here’s a link which explains it. It is tough to do.

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...hlight=Quality

[Cohiba]

Freightman:

Actually my bet ramp is quite simple - bet as high as i think i can get away with when i have the edge and as low as possible when the house has the edge. I am not focused on ROR as practical casino bet limits (posted or what they will tolerate) make ROR a very low number. That said i do want to know 1) how much i can make with an approach, and 2) variance - so i have an idea how long i need to dick around on a game to hit NO. Depending on other factors I may slash and burn a game or gently milk it over time.

WRT to the quality count you describe - i am not following the logic. EORs are well published for all card values so just keep track of every card if you would like. Published count systems offer a compromise between simplicity and EV. FYI - you can enter tag values or keep a side count with CV Data and run a sim to assess how well your approach works. Anyhow thanks for the follow-up - good luck.

Cohiba

[Freightman]

Freightman:

Actually my bet ramp is quite simple - bet as high as i think i can get away with when i have the edge and as low as possible when the house has the edge. I am not focused on ROR as practical casino bet limits (posted or what they will tolerate) make ROR a very low number. That said i do want to know 1) how much i can make with an approach, and 2) variance - so i have an idea how long i need to dick around on a game to hit NO. Depending on other factors I may slash and burn a game or gently milk it over time.

WRT to the quality count you describe - i am not following the logic. EORs are well published for all card values so just keep track of every card if you would like. Published count systems offer a compromise between simplicity and EV. FYI - you can enter tag values or keep a side count with CV Data and run a sim to assess how well your approach works. Anyhow thanks for the follow-up - good luck.

Cohiba

So, max EV. Requires very sturdy bankroll to withstand variance. Not my style in any event. Also fair to say that N0 is not a major consideration for me. Major reason is that I don’t require BJ to pay bills. My approach may well be different if it did.

Now, as for your comment on EOR’s, Norm gave me some static on that a while back. I really don’t think I explained it well - so I’ll give it another shot.

EOR’s define our count systems. EOR’s for hi lo, 7,8,9’s basically cancel out each other. The 6 would provide an approx +1. When I speak of evaluating intermediates, I don’t double count the EOR’s, in other words, the tag values. They are already evaluated in the primary count. What is evaluated is the proportion of intermediates to high value cards. That proportion is what defines QTC, and further defines the ramp that I choose to play. I’m still at +3 or +4 or whatever, but in what ramp?

A simple exercise to demo this. A 6 deck shoe with exactly 26 cards to bottom of shoe. RC is +5, TC is 10. Hi Lo is easiest to demo - so how many different combinations of 23456, 789, face and ace are there to achieve True 10. How many of those True 10’s aren’t worth insuring. How many of those True 10’s aren’t even close to justifying a max bet.

Play with that for a while.

[aceside]

...

A simple exercise to demo this. A 6 deck shoe with exactly 26 cards to bottom of shoe. RC is +5, TC is 10. Hi Lo is easiest to demo - so how many different combinations of 23456, 789, face and ace are there to achieve True 10. How many of those True 10’s aren’t worth insuring. How many of those True 10’s aren’t even close to justifying a max bet.

Play with that for a while.

This makes me more confused. Earlier I solved your quiz on insurance decisions but it used the neutral cards of 789, but in your FBM count system, you partition all cards into three different groups, high 10JQKA, medium 6789, low 2345. Then you bet two boxes with different betting ramps. Can you explain how you keep all the counts for these three card groups? Also, can you explain why you need two hands with different ramps? Are you using the two piles of chips to keep different counts? Do you need a collaborator to help count cards?

[Norm]

Day trading is gambling, unless you have an eight digit bankroll..