How was your first counting experience?

[SweatyBurger]

Hey y'all, just felt like sharing my experience as a new counter who's been getting crushed so far.

Let me also preface this by saying I've put in my time (200+ hours at a conservative estimate) off the felt and I'm confident I'm playing a winning game. This also isn't a whining post.

Over the last year I've been saving up a bankroll of $10,000 (replenishable) to take a shot at counting. So far it hasn't quite gone as planned:

Session 1: -$443 (8 hours)
Session 2: -$210 (3 hours)
Session 3: -$687.50 (4 hours)
Session 4: -$1557.50 (1.5 hours)

Overall: -$2898 (16.5 hours)

I made a couple mistakes in my first session (Nobody told me that when you double they can place the card face down, and I forgot to account for it a couple times lol) but I've played pretty on point aside from that. I spread 1:20 on a $10 minimum 6D H17 DAS RSA NS game and 1:10 on a $15 minimum DD H17 DAS RSA NS game, both with amazing penetration. I use HiLo, half deck estimations (quarter for DD), and the deviations as found on the BJA app. That leaves me with an average RoR of something around 10% which I'm willing to stomach for higher EV, and unfortunately I'm trending towards busto. I went into this accepting that I may well lose every dime in my bankroll, so weirdly I'm at peace with my losses. The only thing that frustrates me is that I may not be able to play anymore for a while if I were to lose my whole bankroll. Obviously I'm sure more experienced counters have gone on much larger and longer downswings, but it's been quite the inaugural experience. If only my real bankroll was looking like my BJA app bankroll

How were your first experiences counting?

[DSchles]

One of my dearest friends, and one of the most successful counters I knew, lost the first ten sessions he played! Needless to say, things turned, and he never looked back. Hang in there and trust the math.

Don

[SweatyBurger]

One of my dearest friends, and one of the most successful counters I knew, lost the first ten sessions he played! Needless to say, things turned, and he never looked back. Hang in there and trust the math.

Don

Now THAT takes an impressive mentality! Hopefully I end up with a similar story (well, without all ten losing sessions)

[DatabaseGuy]

After playing for about 2 hours on a DD game, an older dealer came in and very deliberately said, "let's make some money TOGETHER!" I didn't think anything of it at the time because it seems like a pretty standard thing to say, but I soon came to realize this was the first of quite a few hints.

He was pretty obvious about it, wasn't he? Missed opportunity.

I know APs that were robbed in the parking lot because they didn't take care of their dealers. They can and will sick their goons upon you for being a dick! Ask me how I know.

How do you know that's why he got robbed? I know an AP who also got robbed but that's because he was playing late at night, was not discrete enough with his stack of Benjamins, and had his rental car parked too far from the entrance (you should have an Uber pick you up at the valet circle if possible).

One of my dearest friends, and one of the most successful counters I knew, lost the first ten sessions he played! Needless to say, things turned, and he never looked back. Hang in there and trust the math.

Don

I lost in my first year but was close to breaking even. I identified my mistakes and what went wrong during most of my losing sessions and fixed everything. I now have something which works and am happy. But it took me some time to adjust and get it going like clockwork.

Trust the math, but also learn to trust yourself. Learn to trust your counting, your deck estimation, your bankroll management, etc...

My first sessions? I actually did not count right away. I learned perfect basic strategy and learned to raise when lots of small cards showed up. That worked for my first 4 sessions, of course red chips. Started to count after that, was all over the place, losing count, screwing my deck estimation, never deviating from basic strategy, playing poor conditions, etc... All I had to do was concentrate and insist and only decided to graduate to green chips once I was confident I had a winning game.

[psufan]

I lost in my first year but was close to breaking even. I identified my mistakes and what went wrong during most of my losing sessions and fixed everything. I now have something which works and am happy. But it took me some time to adjust and get it going like clockwork.

Trust the math, but also learn to trust yourself. Learn to trust your counting, your deck estimation, your bankroll management, etc...

My first sessions? I actually did not count right away. I learned perfect basic strategy and learned to raise when lots of small cards showed up. That worked for my first 4 sessions, of course red chips. Started to count after that, was all over the place, losing count, screwing my deck estimation, never deviating from basic strategy, playing poor conditions, etc... All I had to do was concentrate and insist and only decided to graduate to green chips once I was confident I had a winning game.[/QUOTE]


That's basically how I got into it. I learned the concept of counting and had some luck in guessing when bigger cards came out through simple observation. I liked playing so figured I might as well know as much as possible if I'm putting my money out there no matter how small the amount. The start of actually counting was definitely a wreck. I'd make a handful of perfect strategy mistakes, not knowing any deviation plays, losing the count, not having a ramp up strategy, being too cautious about drawing attention.. I got better at all those things but it was a lot of practice. Even with experience, putting out big bets and then following through with a split/double down etc had my hands shaking a bit when betting and some of those excruciating losses when the dealer draws out a 21 have left me furious, cursing and really losing my composure. You can know everything you need to know in preparation but you don't know how you'll react to a situation until you're in it. Each experience, the good and the bad will help you moving forward.

[dalmatian]

Hi. I assume your max bets are in the range of 150-200$? If so, going on a close to 10k losing streak isnt out of the ordinary. Just continue playing. Get a doordash job if you need to replenish ur bank.

[billytheblackjackkid]

Hi. I assume your max bets are in the range of 150-200$? If so, going on a close to 10k losing streak isnt out of the ordinary. Just continue playing. Get a doordash job if you need to replenish ur bank.

get a door dash job to support your gaming addiction that you believe your winning!
love it ! cant make this sh!t up

[dalmatian]

To reduce flux, bet a single bet when they have the edge and bet 2 hands when you do. If you're max bet is 1 hand of 200$ then doing 2 hands of 150$ is the same EV but reduced variance.

[DSchles]

If you're [your] max bet is 1 hand of 200$ then doing 2 hands of 150$ is the same EV but reduced variance.

No, sorry, that's not true. Unless you're alone at the table, two hands of $150 will be MORE e.v., MORE variance, and the SAME risk of ruin as one hand of $200. Essentially, you bet the two hands to increase profits while keeping risk of ruin the same as the equivalent one-hand bet.

Don

[dalmatian]

No, sorry, that's not true. Unless you're alone at the table, two hands of $150 will be MORE e.v., MORE variance, and the SAME risk of ruin as one hand of $200. Essentially, you bet the two hands to increase profits while keeping risk of ruin the same as the equivalent one-hand bet.

Don

Dear Don,

From Arnold Snyder's "Blackbelt in BJ":

Playing multiple hands simultaneously when you have the advantage can also cut fluctuations in the long run. Your overall fluctuations go down when you place twice as many Bets with smaller amounts on each hand. Some pros as a rule always play two hands when they have the edge and only one hand when they don't.

[DSchles]

Dear Don,

From Arnold Snyder's "Blackbelt in BJ":

Playing multiple hands simultaneously when you have the advantage can also cut fluctuations in the long run. Your overall fluctuations go down when you place twice as many Bets with smaller amounts on each hand. Some pros as a rule always play two hands when they have the edge and only one hand when they don't.

Thanks for the lesson. When Snyder says how much he meant by "smaller amounts," get back to me. Meanwhile, what I wrote to you is precisely correct.

Don

[seriousplayer]

Dear Don,

From Arnold Snyder's "Blackbelt in BJ":

Playing multiple hands simultaneously when you have the advantage can also cut fluctuations in the long run. Your overall fluctuations go down when you place twice as many Bets with smaller amounts on each hand. Some pros as a rule always play two hands when they have the edge and only one hand when they don't.

Playing multiple hands simultaneously doesn't low variance. It increases expected value and therefore lowers N0. I think the reason why playing multiple hands simultaneously cut fluctuations is because it decreases N0. A lower N0 requires less hands to be played to be ahead by one standard deviation. N0 is variance/(expected value)^2.

[aceside]

Playing multiple hands simultaneously doesn't low variance. It increases expected value and therefore lowers N0. I think the reason why playing multiple hands simultaneously cut fluctuations is because it decreases N0. A lower N0 requires less hands to be played to be ahead by one standard deviation. N0 is variance/(expected value)^2.

I believe the blackjack theory has been flawed for many years, especially on the EV part. Let me use real numbers to demonstrate this flaw.

Firstly, consider negative EV:
For one hand, variance=1.3 and EV=-0.5%;
For two hands, variance=[2X1.3+2X(2-1)X0.48]=3.6 and EV=-0.5%.

Secondly, consider positive EV:
For one hand, variance=1.3 and EV=+0.5%;
For two hands, variance=[2X1.3+2X(2-1)X0.48]=3.6 and EV=+0.5%.

The expected value of two-hand is Not equal to two times the expected value of one-hand. The math applies to the situation when a blackjack table is packed with 6 players when TC=+2 and thus players' advantage=+1.0%; however, each of these 6 players only has an advantage of +1.0%/6=+0.17%. Too small!. That is why I'd not count card when the table is packed.