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  1. 03-22-2021, 03:11 PM #1
    Super Natural
    Super Natural is offline
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    Question Kelly formula for multiple outcomes with different payouts?

    Per the title how do you calculate a Kelly fraction of your bankroll when there are outcomes with different payouts?

    Note - to create a positive expectation I have removed all 8 rank cards from the shoe.

    For example the bac Dragon 7 side bet probability is now .. 0.0276273404125582 .. payout 40 to 1 thus using ..

    f = p(b + 1) - 1 / b =

    0.00276..(40 + 1) - 1 / 40 = 0.3318%


    Now on the other hand the Dragon Bonus (excuse the ambiguity) side bet has the following payouts ..


    Win by 9 30.00
    Win by 8 10.00
    Win by 7 6.00
    Win by 6 4.00
    Win by 5 2.00
    Win by 4 1.00
    Natural win 1.00
    Natural tie 0.00
    Loss -1.00


    How would I change the simple formula above to handle all of these payouts and their probabilities?

    I found an app online which displays this bets (player side) Kelly as one value. I would like to calculate that.

    Thanks!
    Last edited by Super Natural; 03-22-2021 at 07:59 PM.
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