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Thread: Probability of it happening

  1. #1


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    Probability of it happening

    I am very surprised at a result which I checked via google.

    Say you at a casino found out something one out of 500 chance happening happened. You went to a second independent casino and 1/500 happened too. What is the probability this happened? 1out of 250000? According to google it is multiplicative.

    So I went to 8 casinos and this by itself unlikely event happened. What is the odds? Or we mistook something?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwantmoney View Post
    I am very surprised at a result which I checked via google.

    Say you at a casino found out something one out of 500 chance happening happened. You went to a second independent casino and 1/500 happened too. What is the probability this happened? 1out of 250000? According to google it is multiplicative.

    So I went to 8 casinos and this by itself unlikely event happened. What is the odds? Or we mistook something?
    The probability of k similar events, assuming they are all independent, is computed as : (P(X))^k, where P(X) is the probability of some event X and k is the number of successive trials yielding event X.

    So, for your above event the P(X) = 1/500 = 0.002 = 2 * 10^(-3)

    For 8 X in a row : (P(X))^8 = (2*10^(-3))^8 = 2.56 * 10^(-22)

    since (a^b)^c = a^(b *c)

  3. #3


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    Not wanting to commit Ludic fallacy, I checked wizard of odds website. It says chances of tails coming up 50 out of 1000 time toss is 1out of 500. Note that odds in a casino game was reached. And it has occurred in six casinos with two catching up. The odds is less likely than lightning strike one in a few trillion. is it fair to say cheating is going on?

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    You would need to explain exactly what happened. Unusual events occur all the time because there are so many different unusual events. And, lightning strikes are not uncommon. My father was struck by lightning.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  5. #5


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    It is what is going on at another thread. But over here I am checking the actual probability making sure cheating is actually going on. Is there a good way to upload videos without anyone identifying me?

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...s-are-cheating

  6. #6
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Again, you need to describe the circumstances exactly. If there are 500 events, a 1 in 500 event isn't unlikely.
    "Croyez ceux qui cherchent la vérité, doutez de ceux qui la trouvent." --André Gide

  7. #7


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    The circumstances have been described in these two threads. I lost 50 or 60 units out of about 1000 bets in each of the six casinos. I checked wizard of odds which is equivalent of coin toss 1000 times and losing 50 times. The odds of this is 1/500. This Niu Niu basic bet is just whoever is bigger wins.

    Like I said the information is Already on the threads. Any extra you have to point it out Then I will know.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwantmoney View Post
    The circumstances have been described in these two threads. I lost 50 or 60 units out of about 1000 bets in each of the six casinos. I checked wizard of odds which is equivalent of coin toss 1000 times and losing 50 times. The odds of this is 1/500. This Niu Niu basic bet is just whoever is bigger wins.
    Is this Blackjack?

    If so, 1000 bets is about 10 hours of play at 100 bets per hour.

    Did you lose 60 units in 10 hours in one casino, then another 60 units in 10 hours in the second casino, etc.?
    OR
    Did you lose 480 units TOTAL in 8 different casinos during a 10 hours TOTAL playing time?
    G Man

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    Is this Blackjack?

    If so, 1000 bets is about 10 hours of play at 100 bets per hour.

    Did you lose 60 units in 10 hours in one casino, then another 60 units in 10 hours in the second casino, etc.?
    OR
    Did you lose 480 units TOTAL in 8 different casinos during a 10 hours TOTAL playing time?
    He said it is Niu Niu, not Blackjack.

  10. #10


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    I said 50 to 60 in Each of the casinos

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